Current Presidential Election Predictions

This is our current presidential election predictions. We will forecast the electoral climate of the districts and therefore predict the electoral vote count for each candidate.

Election Predictions

 

As there are 136 electoral votes available to win, in order for a candidate to be elected, they must win a majority, or as of this year, 69 EV. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the election is thrown to the appropriate congressional chamber for the race. As you can see, here are our current predictions:

Capitol (not shown): A Liberty lock. 4 EV.
District 1: A tossup, specifically between Liberty and the Maxwell/Germaine ticket. 11 EV.
District 2: Liberty lock. 10 EV.
District 3: Leans Civic. 8 EV.
District 4: Leans Liberty, only because both members of the Maxwell/Germaine ticket are from the district. 12 EV.
District 5: A Liberty lock this election. 3 EV.
District 6: A tossup between Liberty and Maxwell/Germaine. 5 EV.
District 7: The Conservative ticket should have been competitive here, but its collapse has made D7 a Liberty lock. 7 EV.
District 8: A pure tossup between Civic, Labor, and the Maxwell/Germaine ticket.10 EV.
District 9: Tossup, but environment here seems to favor Maxwell/Germaine. 3 EV.
District 10: Yet another tossup between Liberty and Maxwell/Germaine. Who wins will be determined by how much Labor pulls. 8 EV.
District 11: Extremely competitive this election as Labor, Liberty, Civic, and the Maxwell/Germaine ticket all duke it out here. Tossup. 8 EV.
District 12: An obvious Liberty lock in Senator Mellark and Governor Tarson’s home district. 4 EV.
District 13: Yet another obvious Liberty lock in Secretary Oswald’s home district. 13 EV.
District 14 (not shown): Governor Descoteaux has campaigned heavily for the Liberty ticket and will assure them a lock once again here in the largest populated district. 20 EV.
District 15 (shown as C in picture): In its first election, D15 is posed to be a lock for the Liberty ticket as Senator Mellark is beloved in the district. 10 EV.

 

TOTALS (w/o tossups added in):

Peeta Mellark/Rebecca Tarson (Liberty): 71 locked EV + 12 lean EV + 0 leaned tossup EV = 64 total EV (14 above a win)

Cecelia Paylor/Samuel Trenton (Civic): 8 lean EV + 0 lock EV + 0 leaned tossup EV = 8 total EV (61 short of a win)

Robert F. Maxwell/Lynn Germaine (independent): 0 lean EV + 0 lock EV = 0 total EV. (69 short of a win)

Felicia Ren/Joan Kindred (Labor): 0 lock EV + 0 lean EV + 0 leaned tossup EV = 0 total EV. (69 short of a win)

Rick Canth/Jackson Canth (Conservative): 0 lock EV + 0 lean EV + 11 leaned tossup EV = 0 total EV. (49 short of a win)

Elizabeth Steinbeck/Pauline Crystal (independent): 0 lock EV + 0 lean EV = 0 total EV (69 short of a win)

Too close to call:  47 EV

ANALYSIS:

Senator Peeta Mellark, former first gentleman of Panem, current Senate majority whip, and husband of former president and Secretary-General of the Council of Nations Katniss Everdeen, is almost certain to become the fourth President of the Republic of Panem this fall, defeating Robert F. Maxwell, incumbent President Rick Canth, Governor Felicia Ren, Secretary and former President Cecelia Paylor, and former Governor Elizabeth Steinbeck. His leads in many districts, particularly that of Districts 2 and 7, ensure that his electoral vote count will exceed the needed 69 votes for election to the presidency. Barring exceptional circumstance, he will be president.

Likewise, his running mate, Governor Rebecca Tarson of District 12, will likely also be elected the fifth Vice President of the Republic of Panem. As with her upper-ticket running mate, Tarson will also achieve the necessary number of 69 EVs due to her holds on the same districts as Mellark.

The bigger question is who will manage to achieve a second place win. No one is doubting that the Conservatives are unlikely to win a single EV this year. However, it’s become an all-out brawl for second place as Labor, Civic, and the independent Maxwell/Germaine ticket struggle for relevance, noticing that their chances to revive their party rest on who wins. If the Maxwell/Germaine ticket wins second, they may choose a variety of options, including party organization. If Labor or Civic wins, they will likely emerge stronger than ever before and form a true left-wing opposition party in the future.

 

 

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