BREAKING: Newsom selects Senator Quentin Kennedy as Civic running mate

Senator Patrick Newsom, the Civic Party’s presumptive nominee for president, announced his pick for the Civic vice presidential nomination today at a rally in District 6. 

Newsom selected Senator Quentin Kennedy as his running mate for the general election. This was following the release of a four-person VP shortlist released by Newsom a month ago that in addition to Kennedy also included former Sen. Sadie Myers, presidential candidate Samuel Trenton, and Rep. Amelia Vance. All of the VP shortlist contenders were onstage at the rally to offer a full-fledged set of endorsements for the new Civic ticket.

“I selected Quentin Kennedy because we deserve to have a Civic revival. That means that we need to ensure that the freshest ideas are at our forefront, and Senator Kennedy has been an innovator since his first step in the Capitol. He is a man of integrity, honesty, and unity, and I believe he will serve as a fantastic vice president.” — Senator Patrick Newsom (Civic-D3)

The rally came off as a key unifying moment for the Civic Party, one that may go further in unifying the party once the ticket is formally nominated at the Civic National Convention.

The selection of Kennedy was clearly meant to build a bridge to Civic voters that were less than enthusiastic about supporting Newsom while also ensuring that undecided voters would see a fresh option on the ballot. Kennedy has served as a mainstream progressive in Congress, which both sides of the Civic Party will see as a plus. His selection is likely to be viewed as an attempt to gain voters from Labor, Liberty, and Centre, an arduous but potentially fruitful plan.

With the Newsom-Kennedy ticket finalized, every party’s ticket is now set for the general election. In case you need a refresher, a breakdown is featured below:

PARTY               PRESIDENT          VICE PRESIDENT

Liberty               Peeta Mellark       Rebecca Tarson

Labor                 Iris Canstrom        Jace Walters

Civic                  Patrick Newsom   Quentin Kennedy

Conservative   Kaitlyn Jones         Delia Sutherland

Centre              Julie Roydon         Matthias Christian

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LABNC: Canstrom crowned as Labor pres. nominee amid VP infighting

The Labor Party National Convention was held in District 9 over the past two days. Labor Party officials hoped to provide a convention that would not only show a clear-cut alternative to the Mellark administration, but also provide enough newsworthy moments to catch voters’ attention.

The LabNC managed to get wall-to-wall coverage after all. Held June 24th and 25th, the convention caught attention first for the heated battle for the vice presidential nomination and then for the speeches of D4 Rep. Sylvenia Denton and presidential nominee Sen. Iris Canstrom.


NIGHT ONE:

Night one featured nine speakers, all speaking to the vision of a united Labor Party with a clear and conclusive vision. Three of these speakers were candidates for governorships: Shannon Barker (D1), Haylie Shepard (D6), and Ashton North (D11). By having these districtwide candidates speak, it became clear that Labor was showing the nation that they were serious about providing a true alternative to Liberty policies.

Between the districtwide candidate speeches and the vice presidential speeches, delegates on the floor conducted business as planned. Following the primaries, no candidate for vice president reached the needed delegate count of 1,925 to become the nominee. As such, Rep. Teraton Wendle, former Gov. Thomas Stemp, and former. Sen. Ophelie Murray were left to battle for the nomination on a second ballot: something that has only happened once before, and something that is notoriously volatile. Sen. Murray was nominated by former senator Katrina Rowland (D4) and seconded by Vera Adler, former D3 governor. Gov. Stemp was nominated by Senator Jace Walters (D10) and seconded by former governor Walter Delta (D11). Rep. Wendle was nominated by Sen. Lindsay Richards (D10) and seconded by former senator Zena Gates (Capitol).

The first ballot, as expected, was as follows:

Teraton Wendle –  1,850
Thomas Stemp   –  1,550
Ophelie Murray  –    500

Following this ballot, delegates were released from the binds placed upon them by the party and were able to switch their votes as they saw fit. The second ballot ended up inconclusive as well, with movement towards Stemp:

Teraton Wendle –  1,745
Thomas Stemp   –  1,690
Ophelie Murray  –    465

Stemp’s campaign went into overdrive as they saw an opportunity to flip delegates to win the nomination. Wendle’s team went into crisis mode to prevent their lead from collapsing. Murray found herself as a kingmaker in the nomination fight; should she endorse either side, it’s likely that the candidate she chose would easily win due to her delegates. However, Murray chose to withhold an endorsement until after a third ballot. The third ballot results were as follows:

Teraton Wendle –  1,705
Thomas Stemp   –  1,675
Ophelie Murray  –     415
Jace Walters        –     105

The worst fears of Wendle and Stemp’s campaigns had materialized; without an endorsement prior to the third ballot from Murray, some delegates had become dissatisfied with their choices, resulting in the nomination of a fourth candidate in Senator Jace Walters. Walters decided to let the nomination stand, despite his previous refusal to run for federal office. The fourth ballot was now set to become a test on if Walters could manage to strip more delegates to make himself a full force for the nomination. The fourth ballot results were as follows:

Teraton Wendle –  1,490
Thomas Stemp   –  1,435
Jace Walters       –     670
Ophelie Murray –     305

With the fourth ballot, Walters clearly stripped of delegates from each opponent, causing him to catapult ahead of Murray in the delegate count. Murray as a result withdrew from the contest, endorsing Walters.

“We now have a clear choice on who our vice president should be: Jace Walters. While I would love to serve, I cannot secure this nomination. Senator Walters, however, can. He can lead this party into a new era, one that will bring true leadership to the Capitol. I strongly urge you to vote for Walters on the fifth ballot.” — former Senator Ophelie Murray (Labor-D3)

The results of the fifth ballot were as follows:

Jace Walters        –  1,330
Thomas Stemp    –  1,325
Teraton Wendle –  1,245

Murray’s departure, as expected, rocked the race. Her 305 delegates provided a boost to Walters that encouraged many of Wendle and Stemp’s delegates to balk for Walters. Walters, as a result, then held a five-delegate lead over Stemp heading into a sixth ballot, with Wendle in third. The result of the sixth ballot was as follows:

Jace Walters        –   1,825
Teraton Wendle –    1,110

Thomas Stemp    –     975

Following the sixth ballot, it became clear that Walters was likely to end up the nominee. Stemp’s delegates ditched for Walters heavily on the sixth ballot in a surprise to observers. Despite the significant momentum of Walters, Wendle and Stemp refused to leave the field, stating they would ride this out to the end. The results of the seventh ballot were as follows:

Jace Walters        –   1,980
Teraton Wendle –   1,005

Thomas Stemp    –     925

On the seventh ballot, Senator Jace Walters secured the vice presidential nomination of the Labor Party with 1,980 delegates. For the second time in Labor history, one of their nominees would be someone unexpectedly selected at their convention after a competitive primary in which no candidate would end up the nominee.

 

An excerpt from Senator Walters’ acceptance speech:

“Mr. Chairman, delegates, and my friends in the Labor Party, I hereby accept the nomination of the Labor Party for Vice President of the Republic of Panem! While I know that I did not run for this, I feel that it is my job to unite this party. I thank Senator Murray, Governor Stemp, and Representative Wendle for their hard campaign and their devotion to the values that the Labor Party holds so dear. I will undoubtedly seek their counsel in the challenges I will soon face.

The Labor Party has hit a defining crossroads. We can either choose to move forward as a party that is defined by our past, one that is defined by our present, or one that is defined by our future. My friends, we cannot afford to be a party of the past. We must avoid our previous mistakes. We cannot afford to dwell on the petty divisions of the present either. We must look to the future, to that bright future on the horizon. We must continue to look to unite our party in order to get the ideals of this party across the finish line.

There is too much at stake in this election. We cannot afford another four years of catastrophic failure abroad. We cannot afford any more failure for our children on the front of education, or any more abuse to our citizens by the corporations of Panem.

We cannot afford to let this country falter in the face of a president who is clearly in over his head. We must rescue this country. We must unite for the greater good, and we must win this election.” — Senator and VP nominee Jace Walters (Labor-D10)


NIGHT TWO:

Night two featured the remaining eleven speakers, featuring some of the most prominent members of the Labor Party.

Senator Iris Canstrom accepts the Labor Party presidential nomination.

The most noteworthy speeches belonged to Sec. Walter Delta, Sec. Joan Kindred, and former nominee Felicia Ren; however, the most noticed one belonged to Rep. Sylvenia Denton. Denton did not endorse Canstrom following her victory, and the offer for her to speak at the convention was considered to largely be a formality. However, Denton accepted against the odds, leading many to wonder if she would endorse in the speech.

That, however, did not occur. In fact, Denton decided to bash the Labor Party and alleged that Canstrom had stolen the nomination. Following this, she then decided to announce she would not be endorsing Canstrom for president or Walters for vice president, leading to the firebrand representative being booed off of the stage.

Senator Canstrom was nominated to be the Labor presidential nominee by former governor Felicia Ren (D8) and seconded by both former senator Patricia Mann (D9) and former Secretary of Transportation Joan Kindred (D5).

Below are some excerpts of the notable speeches.


“For too long the Liberty Party has ignored you, the working people of this country. After four years of this president, let’s not make another mistake by letting these policies continue.” — Former Secretary of Agriculture, governor, VP nominee, and presidential candidate Walter Delta (Labor-D11)

“You know, I won this race. I should be accepting this nomination. Instead, I’m here, where I was informed that I’d be endorsing the Labor nominees. Let me tell you: after the hell this party put me through in the primary, I’m not endorsing either nominee. This process was fraudulent. Iris Canstrom and especially Jace Walters are frauds.” — Representative and former presidential candidate Sylvenia Denton (Labor-D4)

“Well, I definitely do not agree with Representative Denton, and I sure hope she apologizes for accepting a speaker slot just to bash the party that she’s supposed to be a part of.

What I do know is that Iris Canstrom is no fraud. She’s the real deal. I may have been wanting this nomination, but I’ve got to say that I’m glad that Iris won. She’s an incredible worker, one that will actually represent Panem well. She’s going to make sure our foreign policy is stable and that our country is at least here for our grandchildren.” — Former Secretary of Transportation, representative, VP nominee, and presidential candidate Joan Kindred (Labor-D5)

“When I decided not to run for the Labor nomination for a third time, many were surprised. I’ll tell you why I did that: so we could get a new face, one that shows Panem we mean business. No one shows that more than Iris Canstrom. She’s represented District 9 tremendously in the Senate and the Labor Party as our leader in the Senate. She is capable of crossing the aisle, as we did to unite with Civic to create the Red-Green Coalition. She’s prepared to take the White House by storm and evict Peeta Mellark. She’s ready to help us take this country back!” — Former governor and two-time Labor presidential nominee Felicia Ren (Labor-D8)

“Mr. Chairman, delegates, Labor Party members, and all those who are watching tonight, I am glad to accept the presidential nomination of the Labor Party of Panem!

Boy, it has been an exciting convention process, hasn’t it? I’d like to take a moment to congratulate my running mate Jace Walters on his nomination yesterday. You know, when I asked him to consider running earlier this year, he told me that he wouldn’t dare consider it. I can say without a doubt that I’ll be proud to have him as my vice president.

Panem is at a fork in the road. Behind us are eight years of hapless right-wing policy under two different presidents. Our country is still recovering from the shock of a president who cheated his way into the presidency, and one who is clearly in over his head. Ahead of us are five different paths, and I’d like to detail where those paths lead.

First there is a path that leads to President Peeta Mellark being reelected. It involves four more years of destructive foreign policy, useless domestic policy, and misguided economic policy.

The second path leads to a President Kaitlyn Jones. We would see no accomplishments under a President Jones, simply failure. It would be simply returning to the Canth administration, except perhaps with less scandal.

The third path gives us a President Julie Roydon. A President Roydon is an incredible enigma, for not even she knows what she believes. It would all fall to which lobbyists reach her first.

The fourth path is lucrative, but isn’t the right one. A President Patrick Newsom may sound good to progressives, but he is not nearly prepared to deal with the politics of the Capitol, nor is he prepared to deal with this country’s foreign policy. He’s misguided in many of his policies, and it would lead to no left-wing party holding the presidency after him for at least a generation. It would be an incredible step backwards not just for Labor, but also the entire left.

The final path is the correct one. With me as president, you will see true progressive reform. We will hold corporations accountable for their actions. We will ensure that lobbyists aren’t involved in government decision making. We will reign in our overreaching foreign policy. We will make sure that this country is run FOR the citizens and BY the citizens, not for the highest bidder like these other parties would prefer. It’s high time that we have an administration that is transparent, open, and accountable to its electorate. Let’s take back Panem together.” — Senate Labor Leader and presidential nominee Iris Canstrom (Labor-D9)

FLASHPOLLING:

If you were to vote today for Panem’s next president, who would you choose?

Peeta Mellark (Liberty): 26 percent

Iris Canstrom (Labor): 24 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative): 17 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic): 15 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre): 13 percent

Undecided: 5 percent

 

If you were to vote today for Panem’s next vice president, who would you choose?

Rebecca Tarson (Liberty): 25 percent

Matthias Christian (Centre): 20 percent

Jace Walters (Labor): 19 percent

Delia Sutherland (Conservative): 18 percent

Civic nominee: 12 percent

Undecided: 6 percent

The flashpolling, taken following the convention’s close, showed a massive boost for the Labor ticket, mostly at the expense of the Civic ticket. It also demolished the large lead that Liberty had accumulated from their convention, putting both races within sight for every candidate running. Jace Walters, however, is not quite polling as well as Canstrom is; this is likely due to that he was just introduced to the electorate as the nominee and lacks name recognition. Due to this, the race for VP, if conducted right now, would lead to a runoff between Vice President Tarson and Matthias Christian, the Centre nominee; however, Walters is already closing that gap.

With the jump for the Labor nominees, the Liberty ticket should be very concerned. If such jumps occur for Civic, Centre, and the Conservatives, it’s incredibly likely that another candidate will eventually take the lead before election day and almost certain that we will see this nation’s first runoff election for president and vice president.

Civic nominee Patrick Newsom releases VP shortlist

Senator Patrick Newsom, the Civic Party’s nominee for president, released a four-name shortlist for his future nomination for the Civic Party’s vice presidential nomination.

Like the Centre Party, the Civic Party forgoes a primary contest to select their nominee for vice president, rather allowing the presidential nominee to select their own choice for a running mate.

The shortlist is as follows:

  • Samuel Trenton, former Cabinet Secretary and VP nominee (Capitol): Trenton would be a unifying choice for certain; though Newsom swept the contests, many Trenton voters are uncertain of their party’s nominee following a heated primary contest and would likely be pleased if Trenton joined the ticket as the VP nominee. The bad part about the pick is that while Newsom is seen as potentially electable, Trenton has already competed for the vice presidency three times- and he lost all three times. Voters know him, and voters haven’t been keen on voting for him. There’s no indication that this would change, which may end up leading to a split result in the executive branch.
  • Sadie Myers, former senator (D3): Myers served for many years in the Senate and served as the leader of the Civic senators for most of that time. Newsom may be inclined to pick her due to his friendship that he’s developed with Myers after serving with her in the Senate for years and also because she may appeal to Trenton voters who are looking for a less volatile choice for VP. The bad part is that voters rejected her narrowly in District 3, the most Civic district in the nation. An argument could be made, as with Trenton, that Myers is unelectable, which could lead to a push to select someone else.
  • Quentin Kennedy, senator (D6): Civic only has so many officeholders to go around, so the fact that Kennedy is under consideration isn’t a shock. However, it is both a pro and a con that Kennedy is virtually unknown to the general public; though he has a large following in District 6, most of the nation is rather unaware. This also extends to Civic voters, a majority of which confirmed in a recent poll that they had never heard of him. While this does take away the advantage of name recognition, it also may allow for new opinions to be formed and possibly allow Kennedy to serve as a running mate that would unite the party.
  • Amelia Vance, representative (D10): The biggest shock of the shortlist, Amelia Vance, who represents District 10’s second congressional district in Congress, was included. Vance is known for her ardent anti-war stance and for her failed legislation that would reverse the Mellark tax cuts for corporations. Vance would be a definite rebuke to the Trenton wing, pushing away the centrist establishment for a true left-wing ticket that would seek to distinguish themselves from the Labor Party. Vance, however, has a clear lack of experience; Joan Kindred and Jackson Canth were likewise attacked for their lack of governing and foreign policy experience.

Newsom has not set a date as to when he will announce his final choice for vice president, but it is likely that he will announce before the Civic convention in June.

The Election Mellark Never Wanted

The Presidential Nominees, clockwise from top left: President Peeta Mellark (Liberty Party), Senator Julie Roydon (Centre Party), former Governor Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative Party), Senator Iris Canstrom (Labor Party), and Senator Patrick Newsom (Civic Party).

President Peeta Mellark (Liberty-D12) had a particular set of names that he wanted to see emerge victorious in the opposition primaries a week ago. Specifically, those names would be former Secretary Samuel Trenton as the Civic nominee, Representative Sylvenia Denton as the Labor nominee (or at least former Secretary Walter Delta), and businessman Robert F. Maxwell as the Conservative nominee. The more candidates from his list to win, the higher the President’s reelection chances rose.

Not one hand fell in his favor.

Instead, the President now faces what is likely to be the closest election of our lifetime. We now have a five-way race for president: Mellark vs. Canstrom vs. Newsom vs. Jones vs. Roydon. Each candidate is particularly remarkable and exceptionally strong; each party, against the odds, has fielded a candidate that could conceivably win.

In the Civic Party’s first competitive primary, voters have selected Patrick Newsom, the firebrand senior senator from District 3. He stunningly defeated Samuel Trenton, the former VP nominee and establishment candidate in a fashion that could only be described as a wipeout. Telegenic, an excellent debater, and known for never equivocating on his progressive values, Newsom’s future as a candidate now depends on ensuring that Samuel Trenton’s wing of the party, along with former President Cecelia Paylor, decide to vote for him in the general election after a destructive primary that determined the future of the Civic Party. Furthermore, his trailblazing attitude is attractive to some, but not to all. A docile VP pick may set worries to rest for many who dislike him.

The Labor Party surprisingly produced Senator Iris Canstrom as their pick for president. Canstrom, the current Labor leader in the Senate, ran as a reformer for both the Labor Party and for the nation. Since her campaign announcement, Canstrom has been viewed as the underdog, and yet she managed to dispatch longtime Labor heavyweights Joan Kindred and Walter Delta in the primary. Her path to victory lies with convincing centrist and Civic voters to come her way; which group she decides to woo will likely be determined by which VP candidate wins the nomination at the Labor National Convention in June.

From the Conservative Party comes former Governor Kaitlyn Jones of District 11. Jones snatched the reins of the Conservative Party when former Secretary Kurtis Pierce and businessman Robert F. Maxwell were too busy bickering over minor debate details, sweeping the primaries and leaving only 600 delegates between her two competitors. Like Canstrom and Newsom, Jones was viewed as a political novice in national politics as analysts insisted that Pierce or Maxwell was most likely to finally take the nomination that they longed for. Jones is complemented by her running mate, former Secretary Delia Sutherland, who adds foreign policy experience from the time that she served in the Presidential Cabinet as Secretary of Intelligence. The ticket is well balanced in terms of Conservative voters; Maxwell voters like Jones’s style, while Pierce voters appreciate the complementary presence of Sutherland. Jones’s path to the White House lies in convincing Liberty and Centre voters that President Mellark isn’t doing enough to reform the nation and that he has spent too much time at war and not enough time at home.

Finally, there’s the Centre Party’s Julie Roydon. A senator sworn in only two years ago, Roydon is articulate and challenging, stubborn and bold. She’s been at the forefront of the Senate’s most brutal and high profile battles, only second in notoriety to her colleague Senator Clarke Randall. Roydon was unopposed in her run for the Centre nomination and will be able to select her own VP nominee as well. Her path to victory has significantly increased over the past week; with more candidates, there’s more vote splitting. As long as Roydon and her running mate can keep her voters committed and turning out, along with collecting unhappy Liberty, Conservative, Labor, and Civic voters, she may be able to build a ragtag coalition that will manage to put her in the White House.

The biggest obstacle to every candidate, however, is the Electoral College. In recent years, opposition parties have pushed for the abolition of the entity, stating that it is stacked in favor of the Liberty Party, but those cries were largely hushed with the election of President Rick Canth, a Conservative. With five strong candidates of different political stripes, it’s hard to predict (minus a few districts, of course) how the vote will break down in the EC. There’s a real possibility that the Electoral Reform Act may come into play for the first time. For those who don’t recall, the ERA was passed under President Canth following his election as president, where Canth was elected by the House of Representatives following losing the EC vote to Celine Oswald. This act removes the House from the EC equation, stating that in the event no candidate hits the needed number of electors to be elected president, the election will go to a second round with the two candidates that received the most EC votes. Voters will then vote in the runoff election, and whoever receives fifty percent of the electoral votes will, of course, win the election.

In this case, it’s not hard to see how President Mellark could find himself on the losing side. Even if he manages to make it to a second round, he could find that the voters of the other candidates choose to vote for his second round opponent. Likewise, the voters could turn on his opponent in favor of him.

There’s only one way to describe this election now: too close to call.

 

PRIMARIES DAY TWO: Labor and Conservatives face off in final primaries in Capitol, D4, D7, D8, D10, D13, D14, and D15

It’s the second primary day for the voters of Panem, with Labor and the Conservatives holding their primaries today in the final eight of the fifteen districts.

Today, however, we will only see results from two different parties rather than all five parties as President Mellark and Vice President Tarson are unopposed in the Liberty Party’s primary for president and VP, while Senator Julie Roydon is unopposed in the Centre Party’s primary for president. Due to internal party rules, neither the Civic or Centre Party will hold primary elections to select their VP nominee, opting instead to allow their nominee to be selected by the candidate or elected by their party convention delegates. Following the previous round, Civic candidate Samuel Trenton dropped out of the Civic presidential primary, causing Senator Patrick Newsom to become the presumptive nominee. As such, we will carry no coverage of the Civic contests, which are expected to go to Newsom due to Trenton’s withdrawal.

The Panem Free Press will be reporting on presidential results only due to the high amount of information that will be put forth during tonight’s reporting.

Our predictions are as follows:

LABOR (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

The Capitol (200 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Safe Wendle
D4 (500 delegates): Likely Denton, Tossup
D7 (350 delegates): Lean Kindred, Lean Wendle
D8 (300 delegates): Lean Canstrom, Tossup
D10 (150 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Lean Stemp
D13 (200 delegates): Tossup, Lean Murray
D14 (250 delegates): Lean Canstrom, Lean Stemp
D15 (200 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Likely Wendle

Delegates needed for nomination: 1,925 delegates

Current presidential delegate count: Canstrom 650, Kindred 500, Delta 350, Denton 250

Current VP delegate count: Wendle 800, Stemp 650, Murray 300

2,100 delegates at stake in Labor’s primaries tonight, and as we previously mentioned, Canstrom is favored in more of these. As things stand, Canstrom has 650 delegates, which is 1,276 short of the nomination. However, should Canstrom win the Capitol, D8, D10, D14, and D15, that puts her at 1,750 delegates, only 175 short. With a win in District 13, which we rate as a tossup, Canstrom will clinch the nomination by 25 delegates. The game plan for Denton, Kindred, and Delta is to at least win District 13 and whichever districts they are predicted to win. If they don’t, Canstrom wins. In the VP race, Wendle has a nicer map today. There’s a pretty decent chance, however, that this race turns into a convention fight; unless Wendle wins D4, there’s no viable path for any candidate.

CONSERVATIVE (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

The Capitol (100 delegates): Likely Pierce, Likely Oliver
D4 (500 delegates): Tossup, Safe Sutherland
D7 (300 delegates): Lean Jones, Lean Sutherland
D8 (200 delegates): Tossup, Tossup
D10 (350 delegates): Likely Jones, Lean Sutherland
D13 (200 delegates): Tossup, Tossup
D14 (300 delegates): Lean Jones, Tossup
D15 (150 delegates): Likely Pierce, Lean Sutherland

Delegates needed for nomination: 1,900 delegates

Current presidential delegate count: Jones 1,350, Pierce 250, Maxwell 100

Current VP delegate count: Sutherland 1,250, Oliver 350, Germaine 100

2,100 delegates up for grabs for Conservatives. With Maxwell out, District 4 becomes a tossup and the ultimate prize of these contests. If Jones stays the course, however, she will easily clinch the nomination even without D4. With her 1,350 delegates from previous contests, Jones is set to be the Conservative nominee should she win D7, D10, and D14 as anticipated. That would put her at 2,300 delegates, which is 400 delegates more than the 50% threshold of 1,900 delegates needed to become the nominee. In the VP race, Sutherland is expected to cruise to the nomination after her wins tonight; she only needs 650 delegates to win the nomination, and she’s predicted to win D4, D7, D10, and D15, which will provide her with 1,300 delegates to bring her to a total of 2,550 delegates. That’s 650 delegates over the threshold.

We’ll be back with results when they come in.

UPDATE: We now have our first results out of the Capitol and District 15.

In the Labor primaries, Senator Iris Canstrom wins both the Capitol and District 15. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 1,050, Kindred 500, Delta 350, Denton 250.

CANSTROM WINS (Capitol Labor) – 10%

Iris Canstrom – 46 percent

Joan Kindred – 29 percent

Walter Delta – 22 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 3 percent

CANSTROM WINS (D15 Labor) – 14%

Iris Canstrom – 51 percent

Walter Delta –  24 percent

Joan Kindred – 20 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 5 percent

In the Conservative primaries, former Secretary Kurtis Pierce notches two wins in the Capitol and D15. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 1,350, Pierce 500, Maxwell 100.

PIERCE WINS (Capitol Con.) – 13%

Kurtis Pierce – 65 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 35 percent

PIERCE WINS (D15 Con.) – 14%

Kurtis Pierce – 68 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 32 percent

With the withdrawal of Samuel Trenton, Senator Patrick Newsom has formally hit the threshold needed for nomination as the presidential nominee of the Civic Party with his win in the Capitol. 

UPDATE 2: We now have results from Districts 7 and 8.

In the Labor primaries, Joan Kindred leads in District 7 and Iris Canstrom leads in District 8. Both contests are currently too early to call.

Lean Kindred (D7 Labor) – 2%

Joan Kindred – 35 percent

Iris Canstrom – 29 percent

Walter Delta – 21 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 15 percent

Lean Canstrom (D8 Labor) – 4%

Iris Canstrom – 36 percent

Walter Delta –  32 percent

Joan Kindred – 23 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 9 percent

In the Conservative primaries, former Governor Kaitlyn Jones surprisingly sweeps the District 7 and 8 primaries despite polling showing closer races in the districts following Maxwell’s exit. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 1,850, Pierce 500, Maxwell 100. 

JONES WINS (D7 Con.) – 16%

Kaitlyn Jones – 58 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 42 percent

JONES WINS (D8 Con.) – 20%

Kaitlyn Jones – 56 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 44 percent

UPDATE 3: We can now declare Joan Kindred the winner in Labor’s D7 primary and Iris Canstrom the winner in Labor’s D8 primary. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 1,350, Kindred 850, Delta 350, Denton 250.

KINDRED WINS (D7 Labor) – 42%

Joan Kindred – 40 percent

Iris Canstrom – 29 percent

Walter Delta – 21 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 15 percent

CANSTROM WINS (D8 Labor) – 44%

Iris Canstrom – 39 percent

Walter Delta –  28 percent

Joan Kindred – 27 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 9 percent

UPDATE 4: We now have results out of Districts 13 and 14.

In the Labor primaries, Walter Delta barely leads in District 13 and Iris Canstrom wins District 14. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 1,600, Kindred 850, Delta 350, Denton 250.

Tossup (D13 Labor) – 22%

Walter Delta – 32 percent

Iris Canstrom – 31 percent

Joan Kindred – 25 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 12 percent

CANSTROM WINS (D14 Labor) – 24%

Iris Canstrom – 36 percent

Walter Delta –  25 percent

Joan Kindred – 23 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 16 percent

In the Conservative primaries, District 13 is too close to call. However, former Governor Kaitlyn Jones wins District 14. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 2,150, Pierce 500, Maxwell 100.  

With her win in District 14, we can now announce that former Governor Kaitlyn Jones has hit the threshold needed to become the Conservative Party’s presidential nominee. 

Tossup (D13 Con.) – 16%

Kaitlyn Jones – 52 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 48 percent

JONES WINS (D14 Con.) – 20%

Kaitlyn Jones – 59 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 41 percent

UPDATE 5: We now have final results out of District 13.

In the fiercely contested Labor primary, we can now predict with 99 percent of the vote in that Iris Canstrom will carry the district. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 1,800, Kindred 850, Delta 350, Denton 250.

CANSTROM WINS (D13 Labor) – 99%

Iris Canstrom – 34 percent

Walter Delta – 30 percent

Joan Kindred – 24 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 12 percent

In the Conservative primary, we can now call District 13 for the new Conservative nominee, Kaitlyn Jones. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 2,350, Pierce 500, Maxwell 100. 

Tossup (D13 Con.) – 96%

Kaitlyn Jones – 53 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 47 percent

UPDATE 6: We now have results out of our final two districts of the night, Districts 4 and 10.

In the Labor primary, we can now call both primaries. In District 4, the winner is Representative Sylvenia Denton by a narrower than expected margin. In District 10, Senator Iris Canstrom seizes the district with a strong win. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 1,950, Kindred 850, Denton 750, Delta 350.

With her win in District 10, we can announce that Senator Iris Canstrom has secured the needed delegates to become the Labor Party’s presidential nominee.

DENTON WINS (D4 Labor) – 15%

Sylvenia Denton – 45 percent

Iris Canstrom – 36 percent

Joan Kindred – 11 percent

Walter Delta – 8 percent

CANSTROM WINS (D10 Labor) – 17%

Iris Canstrom – 56 percent

Joan Kindred –  19 percent

Walter Delta – 17 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 8 percent

In the Conservative primaries, we can surprisingly call both districts on the table. Both District 4 and District 10 will go easily to Conservative nominee Kaitlyn Jones. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 3,200, Pierce 500, Maxwell 100.

JONES WINS (D4 Con.) – 4%

Kaitlyn Jones – 61 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 39 percent

JONES WINS (D10 Con.) – 5%

Kaitlyn Jones – 65 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 35 percent

UPDATE 7: We can now report the results of the VP primaries of the Labor and Conservative Parties.

LABOR:

The Capitol (200 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D4 (500 delegates): Thomas Stemp
D7 (350 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D8 (300 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D10 (150 delegates): Thomas Stemp
D13 (200 delegates): Ophelie Murray
D14 (250 delegates): Thomas Stemp
D15 (200 delegates): Teraton Wendle

Delegates needed for nomination: 1,925 delegates

Final VP delegate count: Wendle 1,850, Stemp 1,550, Murray 500

Following all contests, no candidate has amassed the needed delegates to become the Labor Party’s VP nominee. As such, the first ballot will be inconclusive, leading to a brokered convention.

CONSERVATIVE:

The Capitol (100 delegates): Jack Oliver
D4 (500 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D7 (300 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D8 (200 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D10 (350 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D13 (200 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D14 (300 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D15 (150 delegates): Delia Sutherland

Delegates needed for nomination: 1,900 delegates

Final VP delegate count: Sutherland 3,250, Oliver 450, Germaine 100

Former Secretary Delia Sutherland following all contests will have the needed delegates to become the Conservative Party’s VP nominee.

UPDATE 8: Reports say that Joan Kindred and Walter Delta have called Iris Canstrom to concede the nomination to her. Likewise, Kurtis Pierce conceded the Conservative nomination to Kaitlyn Jones moments ago.

No word has been given on if Sylvenia Denton will concede the election to Canstrom.

UPDATE 9: We now can confirm that Sylvenia Denton has called to concede the Labor Party’s nomination to Iris Canstrom, but witnesses called the phone call a “very terse conversation” and stated that no endorsement was given, only a concession.

UPDATE 10: Senator Iris Canstrom, the recently-crowned Labor Party nominee for president, appeared onstage at a rally in District 10 to deliver a victory speech:

“Thank you, District 10, and thank you, Panem! Against the odds, we have won the Labor nomination! This is one step towards reform of this party, and it’s one step towards true progressive reform in the White House. Our journey begins tonight, and by November, we will take this movement all the way to the Capitol and unseat President Mellark!”

UPDATE 11: Governor Kaitlyn Jones, the newly-minted Conservative nominee for president, appeared with her vice presidential nominee, Delia Sutherland, at her victory party in District 11:

“A few months ago, hardly anyone had heard of me. I was a former governor- albeit, one with a proven track record of how Conservative policies could work. Over these past few months, I have, along with Delia, found just how many Conservatives there really are. Despite what you hear, despite what the media wants you to believe, there is a silent majority, one that is coming out in full force. I’m here for them, and I’m here for you. Now, we bring this majority to the general election, and to the White House!”

UPDATE 12: Senator Patrick Newsom, Civic nominee for president, appeared in District 3 at his victory rally:

“It’s time for a true leader in the White House, and I’m ready to provide that change. Overwhelmingly, you have all provided me with your trust to go and face off against President Mellark in November. Let me be clear: presidents don’t scare me, and it’s time that we replace this one. It’s time for true left-wing policy and reform. It’s time to hold the rich and the corporations accountable. It’s time to ensure that nuclear weapons aren’t even available to be stolen. It’s time to make sure that Panem is safe, secure, and stable.”

BREAKING: Samuel Trenton withdraws from Civic presidential race

BREAKING: Samuel Trenton, the former cabinet secretary and Civic VP nominee, has withdrawn from the Civic presidential primary following a string of brutal losses at the hands of Senator Patrick Newsom.

Trenton, speaking from the steps of the Panem Capitol, stated the following:

“While I would love for the voters of this nation to have allowed me to represent them as their nominee, I must respect their wishes. There is simply no path forward for me in this nomination process, and as such, I must withdraw my candidacy for President effective immediately. I thank you all, and I congratulate Senator Newsom on his victory. I look forward with working with him in the future to ensure that the Civic Party takes the White House this election.”

Trenton’s withdrawal from the race makes Newsom the presumptive nominee of the Civic Party this election. Newsom, a firebrand and a grassroots-based candidate, has gained a large following among voters of all stripes for his charisma. Currently, Newsom polls higher than any Civic candidate in history, a plus for the party. Now all eyes will turn to Newsom as he recommends his choice for vice president.

PRIMARIES DAY ONE: Civic, Labor, Conservatives head to polls in D1, D2, D3, D5, D6, D9, D11, D12

It’s primary day for the voters of Panem, with all parties holding their primaries today in eight of the fifteen districts. Later this week, seven more districts will vote along with the Capitol in their primary elections as well.

Today, however, we will only see results from three different parties rather than all five parties as President Mellark and Vice President Tarson are unopposed in the Liberty Party’s primary for president and VP, while Senator Julie Roydon is unopposed in the Centre Party’s primary for president. Due to internal party rules, neither the Civic or Centre Party will hold primary elections to select their VP nominee, opting instead to allow their nominee to be selected by the candidate or elected by their party convention delegates.

The Panem Free Press will be reporting on presidential results only due to the high amount of information that will be put forth during tonight’s reporting.

Our predictions are as follows:

CIVIC:

D1 (150 delegates): Lean Trenton
D2 (200 delegates): Tossup
D3 (400 delegates): Safe Newsom
D5 (100 delegates): Lean Newsom
D6 (250 delegates): Likely Newsom
D9 (200 delegates): Tossup
D11 (100 delegates): Likely Newsom
D12 (150 delegates): Lean Newsom

1,550 delegates at stake this round of primaries for the Civic Party. The goal for Newsom is to sweep every district except District 1; if he does manage to take District 1, it’s likely that Samuel Trenton will be forced to suspend his campaign. The goal for Trenton is to prevent any sort of sweep for Newsom. While the ultimate goal would be to knock off some of the “lean Newsom” districts along with retaining D1 and the tossup districts, the main goal is just to win D1, D2, and D9 in order to gain a bit of momentum and to ensure that he can last until later this week.

LABOR (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

D1 (300 delegates): Lean Kindred, Safe Stemp
D2 (150 delegates): Tossup, Safe Wendle
D3 (100 delegates): Likely Delta, Safe Murray
D5 (200 delegates): Safe Kindred, Tossup
D6 (250 delegates): Likely Denton, Tossup
D9 (400 delegates): Safe Canstrom, Likely Wendle
D11 (250 delegates): Safe Delta, Likely Stemp
D12 (100 delegates): Tossup, Tossup

1,750 delegates at stake in Labor’s primaries tonight, and if things go as expected, we can easily expect a brokered convention in June. Each candidate obviously has high expectations for tonight. For Kindred, she will need to carry D1 and D5 for certain to stay in, which is looking likely. However, to cement her status as the frontrunner, she will need to win one of the tossups (D2 or D12). Neither are rich in delegates, but as we have learned from other conventions, a singular delegate can deny a candidate the nomination. For Denton, she is expected to win D6, but like Kindred, she needs to go for one of the tossups. Luckily for Denton, some of the contests later in the week will tend to favor her, such as her home district of District 4 that will almost certainly award her its 500 delegates. For Delta, he is likely to take D3 and D11 and like the others could use one of those tossups. Due to the proximity to D12, he stands a real chance in D12, but it’s still anyone’s game there. For Canstrom, she’s sure to take her home district of D9, but she really needs a tossup to remain viable as a candidate. Some of the other contests later in the week may be a bit more favorable, but her odds are significantly less than Denton’s or Delta’s.

CONSERVATIVE (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

D1 (300 delegates): Lean Jones, Lean Sutherland
D2 (250 delegates): Safe Pierce, Lean Sutherland
D3 (100 delegates): Tossup, Tossup
D5 (100 delegates): Lean Maxwell, Lean Germaine
D6 (250 delegates): Likely Jones, Likely Sutherland
D9 (200 delegates): Tossup, Likely Sutherland
D11 (350 delegates): Safe Jones, Lean Oliver
D12 (150 delegates): Likely Jones, Lean Sutherland

1,700 delegates up for grabs for Conservatives, and it seems that most of them are Kaitlyn Jones’ to take. The goal for Jones tonight is to stay the course, win the expected contests (D1, D6, D11, and D12), and attempt to win the two tossups (D3 and D9). If she does that, the path is extremely narrowed for her opponents. The goal for Pierce and Maxwell is to win their singular expected districts (D2 and D5, respectively) and win one or both of the tossups. If neither win a tossup, they face real issues going forward. Meanwhile, in the case of the VP elections, Sutherland seems set to sweep D1, D2, D6, D9, and D12.

We’ll be back with results when they come in.

UPDATE: We now have results out of Districts 1 and 9.

In the Civic primary, Samuel Trenton is currently edging out Patrick Newsom in District 1 while Newsom is leading in District 9.

Tossup (D1 Civic) – 9%

Samuel Trenton – 52 percent

Patrick Newsom – 48 percent

Lean Newsom (D9 Civic) – 12%

Patrick Newsom – 56 percent

Samuel Trenton – 44 percent

In the Labor primary, Joan Kindred leads in District 1 and we can officially make our first call of the night in District 9’s Labor primary, where Iris Canstrom has won her home district’s primary. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 400, Kindred 0, Denton 0, Delta 0.

Lean Kindred (D1 Labor) – 7%

Joan Kindred – 40 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 29 percent

Walter Delta – 16 percent

Iris Canstrom – 15 percent

CANSTROM WINS (D9 Labor) – 16%

Iris Canstrom – 55 percent

Walter Delta –  21 percent

Joan Kindred – 20 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 4 percent

In the Conservative primary, we have our first call from District 1. Governor Kaitlyn Jones will carry the first district and its 300 delegates. The Conservative delegate count is now Jones 300, Maxwell 0, Pierce 0. This call was surprising as it wasn’t expected so early in the night. Good sign for Jones. In District 9, Jones is also off to an early lead.

JONES WINS (D1 Con.) – 8%

Kaitlyn Jones – 46 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 29 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 25 percent

Lean Jones (D9 Con.) – 13%

Kaitlyn Jones – 39 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 32 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 29 percent

UPDATE 2: We can now make our final calls for the remaining contests in D1 and D9.

In the Civic primary, we can now call D1 for Samuel Trenton and D9 for Patrick Newsom. These calls bring the Civic delegate count to Newsom 200, Trenton 150. 

TRENTON WINS (D1 Civic) – 59%

Samuel Trenton – 55 percent

Patrick Newsom – 45 percent

NEWSOM WINS (D9 Civic) – 67%

Patrick Newsom – 59 percent

Samuel Trenton – 41 percent

In the Labor primary, we can now D1 for Joan Kindred. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 400, Kindred 300, Denton 0, Delta 0.

KINDRED WINS (D1 Labor) – 47%

Joan Kindred – 42 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 27 percent

Walter Delta – 16 percent

Iris Canstrom – 15 percent

In the Conservative primary, we can now call D9 for Kaitlyn Jones. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 500, Maxwell 0, Pierce 0. 

JONES WINS (D9 Con.) – 63%

Kaitlyn Jones – 43 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 29 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 28 percent

UPDATE 3: We have our first results out of Districts 2 and 3.

In the Civic primary, we have surprisingly have two calls. In both District 2 and 3, Patrick Newsom has won. This brings the Civic delegate count to Newsom 800, Trenton 150. 

NEWSOM WINS (D2 Civic) – 10%

Samuel Trenton – 63 percent

Patrick Newsom – 37 percent

NEWSOM WINS (D3 Civic) – 2%

Patrick Newsom – 79 percent

Samuel Trenton – 21 percent

In the Labor primary, Iris Canstrom is projected to win District 2. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 400, Kindred 300, Delta 100, Denton 0.

Tossup (D2 Labor) – 72%

Iris Canstrom – 28 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 26 percent

Joan Kindred – 25 percent

Walter Delta – 21 percent

 

In the Conservative primaries, Jones has a bitterly narrow lead in D3 while Kurtis Pierce wins D2. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 500, Pierce 250, Maxwell 0.

PIERCE WINS (D2 Con.) – 8%

Kurtis Pierce – 46 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 29 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 25 percent

Tossup (D3 Con.) – 13%

Kaitlyn Jones – 39 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 38 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 23 percent

UPDATE 4: We now have final results out of Districts 2 and 3.

In the Labor primary, Iris Canstrom leads by a hair in District 2 while we can call District 3 for Walter Delta. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 550, Kindred 300, Delta 100, Denton 0.

CANSTROM WINS (D2 Labor) – 82%

Iris Canstrom – 32 percent

Joan Kindred – 29 percent

Walter Delta – 25 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 15 percent

In the Conservative primaries, Kaitlyn Jones wins D3. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 600, Pierce 250, Maxwell 0.

JONES WINS (D3 Con.) – 93%

Kaitlyn Jones – 39 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 32 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 29 percent

UPDATE 5: We now have our first results out of District 5 and 6.

In the Civic primary, Patrick Newsom wins both District 5 and District 6 easily, bringing the Civic delegate count to Newsom 1150, Trenton 150.

NEWSOM WINS (D5 Civic) – 8%

Samuel Trenton – 57 percent

Patrick Newsom – 43 percent

NEWSOM WINS (D6 Civic) – 10%

Patrick Newsom – 65 percent

Samuel Trenton – 35 percent

In the Labor primary, Joan Kindred wins in her home district of District 5 and Sylvenia Denton notches her first primary win in District 6. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 550, Kindred 500, Denton 250, Delta 100.

KINDRED WINS (D5 Labor) – 1%

Joan Kindred – 67 percent

Iris Canstrom – 17 percent

Walter Delta – 15 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 1 percent

DENTON WINS (D6 Labor) – 1%

Sylvenia Denton – 41 percent

Walter Delta –  22 percent

Joan Kindred – 19 percent

Iris Canstrom – 18 percent

In the Conservative primary, Robert F. Maxwell currently leads in District 5 while Governor Kaitlyn Jones will carry District 6. The Conservative delegate count is now Jones 850, Pierce 250, Maxwell 0. 

Lean Maxwell (D5 Con.) – 3%

Robert F. Maxwell – 36 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 33 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 31 percent

JONES WINS (D6 Con.) – 4%

Kaitlyn Jones – 46 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 29 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 25 percent

UPDATE 6: We can now call the Conservative District 5 primary for Robert F. Maxwell, his first win of the night. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 850, Pierce 250, Maxwell 100. 

MAXWELL WINS (D5 Con.) – 53%

Robert F. Maxwell – 38 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 33 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 29 percent

We also now have our first results out of Districts 11 and 12.

In the Civic primary, Patrick Newsom wins both District 11 and District 12, bringing the Civic delegate count to Newsom 1,400, Trenton 150.

NEWSOM WINS (D11 Civic) – 5%

Samuel Trenton – 58 percent

Patrick Newsom – 42 percent

NEWSOM WINS (D12 Civic) – 7%

Patrick Newsom – 69 percent

Samuel Trenton – 31 percent

In the Labor primary, Joan Kindred wins in her home district of District 5 and Sylvenia Denton notches her first primary win in District 6. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 550, Kindred 500, Delta 350, Denton 250.

DELTA WINS (D11 Labor) – 1%

Walter Delta – 66 percent

Iris Canstrom – 17 percent

Joan Kindred – 16 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 1 percent

Tossup (D12 Labor) – 1%

Sylvenia Denton – 27 percent

Walter Delta –  25 percent

Joan Kindred – 25 percent

Iris Canstrom – 23 percent

In the Conservative primary, Robert F. Maxwell currently leads in District 5 while Governor Kaitlyn Jones will carry District 6. The Conservative delegate count is now Jones 1,350, Pierce 250, Maxwell 100. 

JONES WINS (D11 Con.) – 13%

Kaitlyn Jones – 43 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 30 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 27 percent

JONES WINS (D12 Con.) – 14%

Kaitlyn Jones – 56 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 24 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 20 percent

UPDATE 7: We can now make our final call of the night. In the District 12 Labor primary, we project Iris Canstrom to be the winner. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 650, Kindred 500, Delta 350, Denton 250.

CANSTROM WINS (D12 Labor) – 99%

Iris Canstrom – 26 percent

Walter Delta –  25 percent

Joan Kindred – 25 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 24 percent

UPDATE 8: We can now provide you with the winners of the vice presidential primaries of the Labor and Conservative Parties.

LABOR:

D1 (300 delegates): Thomas Stemp
D2 (150 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D3 (100 delegates): Ophelie Murray
D5 (200 delegates): Ophelie Murray
D6 (250 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D9 (400 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D11 (250 delegates): Thomas Stemp
D12 (100 delegates): Thomas Stemp

Current delegate count: Wendle 800, Stemp 650, Murray 300

CONSERVATIVE:

D1 (300 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D2 (250 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D3 (100 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D5 (100 delegates): Lynn Germaine
D6 (250 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D9 (200 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D11 (350 delegates): Jack Oliver
D12 (150 delegates): Delia Sutherland

Current delegate count: Sutherland 1,250, Oliver 350, Germaine 100

PRESIDENTIAL DELEGATE COUNTS:

Labor: Canstrom 650, Kindred 500, Delta 350, Denton 250

Civic: Newsom 1,400, Trenton 150

Conservative: Jones 1,350, Pierce 250, Maxwell 100

UPDATE 9: We can now confirm that Robert F. Maxwell and his running mate Lynn Germaine have decided to withdraw their candidacies for the Conservative Party presidential and VP nominations, respectively. No word was given on an endorsement of Jones or Pierce.

ANALYSIS: In the Labor Party presidential primary, Senator Iris Canstrom has emerged as the nominal frontrunner. In a series of contests that were believed to be unfavorable to the relatively unknown senator from District 9, Canstrom emerged the victor in three of them, ripping the two much-needed tossups from the other three candidates. The next contests will favor Canstrom by a little bit, but if Canstrom is not careful, she could lose her edge to Joan Kindred (who didn’t do so terribly tonight either). In the Labor VP primary, there’s a dead heat between the three candidates with no frontrunner.

In the Civic Party presidential primary, Senator Patrick Newsom has essentially put the nails in the coffin of Samuel Trenton’s campaign. Barring a real miracle later this week, Newsom is set to take the stage at the Civic convention as the nominee. Be sure to look for coverage very soon about who Newsom will pick as his VP nominee.

In the Conservative Party presidential primary, former Governor Kaitlyn Jones had a great night that ended up forcing Robert F. Maxwell out of the race. Maxwell simply couldn’t compete with Jones, who is basically an outsider candidate like him but without any baggage. Jones will now go face to face with Kurtis Pierce, who didn’t particularly make any grand moves tonight, in the next set of primaries where she’s expected to do well and clinch the nomination. Likewise, Jones’ running mate Delia Sutherland nearly matched Jones in delegates, forcing Maxwell’s running mate, Lynn Germaine, to drop out.

Here’s our predictions for the next set of contests.

CIVIC:

The Capitol (100 delegates): Safe Trenton
D4 (350 delegates): Lean Newsom
D7 (200 delegates): Likely Newsom
D8 (300 delegates): Tossup
D10 (150 delegates): Likely Newsom
D13 (200 delegates): Lean Newsom
D14 (200 delegates): Lean Newsom
D15 (250 delegates): Safe Trenton

1,750 delegates at stake this next round of primaries for the Civic Party. After this past round, Newsom has 1,400 delegates while Trenton only has a paltry 150 delegates. Newsom only needs to win one more contest in order to clinch the nomination since the threshold is 1,450 delegates; as we see it, Samuel Trenton has no potential way to become the Civic nominee unless he somehow manages to win literally every contest that is coming up.

LABOR (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

The Capitol (200 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Safe Wendle
D4 (500 delegates): Likely Denton, Tossup
D7 (350 delegates): Lean Kindred, Lean Wendle
D8 (300 delegates): Lean Canstrom, Tossup
D10 (150 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Lean Stemp
D13 (200 delegates): Tossup, Lean Murray
D14 (250 delegates): Lean Canstrom, Lean Stemp
D15 (200 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Likely Wendle

2,100 delegates at stake in Labor’s primaries later this week, and as we previously mentioned, Canstrom is favored in more of these. As things stand, Canstrom has 650 delegates, which is 1,276 short of the nomination. However, should Canstrom win the Capitol, D8, D10, D14, and D15, that puts her at 1,750 delegates, only 176 short. With a win in District 13, which we rate as a tossup, Canstrom will clinch the nomination by 24 delegates. The game plan for Denton, Kindred, and Delta is to at least win District 13 and whichever districts they are predicted to win. If they don’t, Canstrom wins. In the VP race, Wendle has a nicer map today. There’s a pretty decent chance, however, that this race turns into a convention fight; unless Wendle wins D4, there’s no viable path for any candidate.

CONSERVATIVE (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

The Capitol (100 delegates): Likely Pierce, Likely Oliver
D4 (500 delegates): Tossup, Safe Sutherland
D7 (300 delegates): Lean Jones, Lean Sutherland
D8 (200 delegates): Tossup, Tossup
D10 (350 delegates): Likely Jones, Lean Sutherland
D13 (200 delegates): Tossup, Tossup
D14 (300 delegates): Lean Jones, Tossup
D15 (150 delegates): Likely Pierce, Lean Sutherland

2,100 delegates up for grabs for Conservatives. With Maxwell out, District 4 becomes a tossup and the ultimate prize of these contests. If Jones stays the course, however, she will easily clinch the nomination even without D4. With her 1,350 delegates from today’s contests, Jones is set to be the Conservative nominee should she win D7, D10, and D14 as anticipated. That would put her at 2,300 delegates, which is 400 delegates more than the 50% threshold of 1,900 delegates needed to become the nominee. In the VP race, Sutherland is expected to cruise to the nomination after her wins tonight; she only needs 650 delegates to win the nomination, and she’s predicted to win D4, D7, D10, and D15, which will provide her with 1,300 delegates to bring her to a total of 2,550 delegates. That’s 650 delegates over the threshold.