POLLING: If Election Held Today, Runoff Would Be A Certainty

The Panem Free Press conducted polling for the presidential and VP races throughout the fifteen districts and the Capitol, coming to a result that may not please any candidate.

The questions asked:

  • If you were to vote today for president, who would you select:
    • Peeta Mellark, Patrick Newsom, Iris Canstrom, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, Undecided
  • If you were to vote today for vice president, who would you select:
    • Rebecca Tarson, Quentin Kennedy, Jace Walters, Delia Sutherland, Matthias Christian, Undecided

The results are below.

NATIONAL:

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 22 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 23 percent

Iris Canstrom – 20 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 19 percent

Julie Roydon – 18 percent                                                      Delia Sutherland – 18 percent

Patrick Newsom – 17 percent                                                Matthias Christian – 18 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 14 percent                                                     Quentin Kennedy – 17 percent

Undecided – 9 percent                                                          Undecided – 6 percent

DISTRICT ONE (11 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Julie Roydon – 22 percent                                                      Jace Walters – 22 percent

Iris Canstrom – 21 percent                                                      Rebecca Tarson – 21 percent

Peeta Mellark – 20 percent                                                   Delia Sutherland – 19 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 19 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 15 percent

Patrick Newsom – 6 percent                                                Quentin Kennedy – 7 percent

Undecided – 12 percent                                                         Undecided – 16 percent

DISTRICT TWO (10 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 26 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 25 percent

Julie Roydon – 23 percent                                                      Delia Sutherland – 24 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 19 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 20 percent

Iris Canstrom – 19 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 20 percent

Patrick Newsom – 6 percent                                                 Quentin Kennedy – 7 percent

Undecided – 7 percent                                                          Undecided – 4 percent

DISTRICT THREE (8 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Patrick Newsom – 37 percent                                               Quentin Kennedy – 32 percent

Iris Canstrom – 21 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 24 percent

Julie Roydon – 13 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 15 percent

Peeta Mellark – 12 percent                                                   Rebecca Tarson – 12 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 4 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 5 percent

Undecided – 13 percent                                                        Undecided – 12 percent

DISTRICT FOUR (12 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Julie Roydon – 21 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 20 percent

Peeta Mellark – 21 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 19 percent

Iris Canstrom – 17 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 19 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 20 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 17 percent

Patrick Newsom – 16 percent                                               Quentin Kennedy – 15 percent

Undecided – 5 percent                                                          Undecided – 10 percent

DISTRICT FIVE (3 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Kaitlyn Jones – 27 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 25 percent

Peeta Mellark – 20 percent                                                   Quentin Kennedy – 20 percent

Iris Canstrom – 17 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 19 percent

Julie Roydon – 17 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 17 percent

Patrick Newsom – 16 percent                                                Jace Walters – 15 percent

Undecided – 3 percent                                                           Undecided – 4 percent

DISTRICT SIX (5 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Kaitlyn Jones – 23 percent                                                     Quentin Kennedy – 29 percent

Peeta Mellark – 22 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 21 percent

Julie Roydon – 18 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 16 percent

Iris Canstrom – 16 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 15 percent

Patrick Newsom – 11 percent                                                 Jace Walters – 13 percent

Undecided – 10 percent                                                          Undecided – 6 percent

DISTRICT SEVEN (7 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Kaitlyn Jones – 26 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 22 percent

Peeta Mellark – 21 percent                                                     Rebecca Tarson – 21 percent

Julie Roydon – 19 percent                                                     Quentin Kennedy – 18 percent

Patrick Newsom – 17 percent                                               Jace Walters – 17 percent

Iris Canstrom – 14 percent                                                    Matthias Christian   – 17 percent

Undecided – 3 percent                                                         Undecided – 5 percent

DISTRICT EIGHT (10 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Iris Canstrom – 26 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 24 percent

Julie Roydon – 20 percent                                                      Rebecca Tarson – 21 percent

Peeta Mellark – 20 percent                                                    Matthias Christian – 19 percent

Patrick Newsom – 16 percent                                               Quentin Kennedy – 15 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 11 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 12 percent

Undecided – 7 percent                                                          Undecided – 9 percent

DISTRICT NINE (3 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Iris Canstrom – 24 percent                                                     Rebecca Tarson – 27 percent

Peeta Mellark – 22 percent                                                    Jace Walters – 22 percent

Julie Roydon – 20 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 19 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 19 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 15 percent

Patrick Newsom – 12 percent                                                Quentin Kennedy – 11 percent

Undecided – 3 percent                                                           Undecided – 6 percent

DISTRICT TEN (8 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 27 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 23 percent

Julie Roydon – 23 percent                                                      Matthias Christian – 23 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 19 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 22 percent

Iris Canstrom – 19 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 15 percent

Patrick Newsom – 6 percent                                                 Quentin Kennedy – 8 percent

Undecided – 6 percent                                                          Undecided – 9 percent

DISTRICT ELEVEN (8 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Kaitlyn Jones – 29 percent                                                     Rebecca Tarson – 30 percent

Peeta Mellark – 29 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 28 percent

Patrick Newsom – 14 percent                                               Quentin Kennedy – 17 percent

Iris Canstrom – 11 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 9 percent

Julie Roydon – 7 percent                                                       Matthias Christian – 5 percent

Undecided – 10 percent                                                        Undecided – 11 percent

DISTRICT TWELVE (4 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 71 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 69 percent

Julie Roydon – 11 percent                                                      Matthias Christian – 10 percent

Iris Canstrom – 6 percent                                                      Jace Walters – 5 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 4 percent                                                      Delia Sutherland – 4 percent

Patrick Newsom – 4 percent                                                Quentin Kennedy – 4 percent

Undecided – 4 percent                                                          Undecided – 8 percent

DISTRICT THIRTEEN (13 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 40 percent                                                   Rebecca Tarson – 39 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 27 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 21 percent

Julie Roydon – 14 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 16 percent

Iris Canstrom – 7 percent                                                      Quentin Kennedy – 10 percent

Patrick Newsom – 6 percent                                                Jace Walters – 6 percent

Undecided – 6 percent                                                          Undecided – 8 percent

DISTRICT FOURTEEN (20 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 38 percent                                                   Rebecca Tarson – 41 percent

Julie Roydon – 24 percent                                                     Quentin Kennedy – 19 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 14 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 16 percent

Iris Canstrom – 8 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 9 percent

Patrick Newsom – 6 percent                                               Jace Walters – 4 percent

Undecided – 10 percent                                                        Undecided – 11 percent

DISTRICT FIFTEEN (10 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Julie Roydon – 31 percent                                                      Matthias Christian – 26 percent

Peeta Mellark  – 30 percent                                                   Rebecca Tarson – 26 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 14 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 17 percent

Patrick Newsom – 12 percent                                               Quentin Kennedy – 14 percent

Iris Canstrom – 7 percent                                                      Jace Walters – 10 percent

Undecided – 6 percent                                                          Undecided – 7 percent

THE CAPITOL (3 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Julie Roydon – 30 percent                                                      Matthias Christian – 29 percent

Peeta Mellark – 28 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 28 percent

Iris Canstrom – 15 percent                                                      Jace Walters – 16 percent

Patrick Newsom – 11 percent                                                 Quentin Kennedy – 13 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 10 percent                                                      Delia Sutherland – 10 percent

Undecided – 6 percent                                                           Undecided – 5 percent


ANALYSIS: This polling is the greatest indicator by far of just how much the electorate has become divided. For the first time in Panem’s history, we are looking at an incredibly competitive election, one that under the previous constitutional method would have devolved into an absolutely chaotic House election involving five candidates from five different parties. Instead, following the House election that propelled Rick Canth to the presidency, Panem’s constitution was amended allowing for a second round of voting following the Electoral College’s official vote that determines no candidate to have reached a majority.

If the first round of the election were to be held today, no candidate would receive a majority of the electoral votes. In fact, below is how the vote would break down based on the poll:


PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark: D2, D10, D11, D12, D13, D14 (Total: 55 EVs)

Julie Roydon: D1, D4, D15, Capitol (Total: 36 EVs)

Kaitlyn Jones: D5, D6, D7, D11 (Total: 23 EVs)

Iris Canstrom: D8, D9 (Total: 13 EVs)

Patrick Newsom: D3 (Total: 8 EVs)

VICE PRESIDENT:

Rebecca Tarson: D2, D9, D10, D11, D12, D13, D14 (Total: 58 EVs)

Matthias Christian: D4, D15, Capitol (Total: 25 EVs)

Jace Walters: D1, D8 (Total: 21 EVs)

Quentin Kennedy: D3, D6 (Total: 13 EVs)

Delia Sutherland: D5, D7 (Total: 10 EVs)


The needed amount to accede to the executive branch is 68 electoral votes. As shown above, President Mellark misses the cut by 13 electoral votes and Vice President Tarson misses it by 10 electoral votes. In this scenario, the top two electoral vote recipients would advance to another round of balloting, also under the electoral college. In the case of the presidential election, this election would be (according to our polling) President Mellark versus Senator Roydon and Vice President Tarson versus Representative Christian. However, with so many districts having fluctuations in their polling, it is completely possible that President Mellark and Vice President Tarson win this election outright if things go their way. Likewise, it’s also possible that the Liberty ticket doesn’t even make it into the runoff; all it would take is a series of second place finishes in multiple districts to end the Liberty reelection campaign.

PFP POLL: Mellark/Tarson with healthy lead, Jones and Newsom excel in their primaries

Recent polling conducted by The Panem Free Press shows the Mellark/Tarson ticket to still have a healthy lead as expected even as the President’s approval rating has taken a hit due to the Greek crisis. Meanwhile, Civic candidate Patrick Newsom and Conservative candidate Kaitlyn Jones have rapidly risen to the top of their respective primary fields.

The questions asked were as follows:

  • Which political party do you affiliate with: Liberty, Labor, Centre, Civic, Conservative, Independent, or Undecided?
  • If you belong to the Labor Party, which candidate would you vote for in the:
    • Presidential primary: Iris Canstrom, Sylvenia Denton, Walter Delta, Joan Kindred, or undecided?
    • VP primary: Ophelie Murray, Thomas Stemp, Teraton Wendle, or undecided?
  • If you belong to the Civic Party, which candidate would you vote for in the primary: Patrick Newsom, Samuel Trenton, or undecided?
  • If you belong to the Conservative Party, which candidate would you vote for in the
    • Presidential primary: Robert F. Maxwell, Kaitlyn Jones, Kurtis Pierce, or undecided?
    • VP primary: Lynn Germaine, Jack Oliver, Delia Sutherland, or undecided?
  • What is your opinion of the Mellark administration: positive, neutral, negative, or undecided?
  • Do you approve or disapprove of President Mellark’s performance as president: approve, neutral, disapprove, or undecided?
  • Do you approve or disapprove of Vice President Tarson’s performance as vice president: approve, neutral, disapprove, or undecided?
  • In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support:
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Samuel Trenton, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Samuel Trenton, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Patrick Newsom, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Patrick Newsom, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Samuel Trenton, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Samuel Trenton, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Patrick Newsom, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Patrick Newsom, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Samuel Trenton, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Samuel Trenton, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Patrick Newsom, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Patrick Newsom, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?

The results are as follows:

Which political party do you affiliate with?

Liberty – 32 percent

Centre – 27 percent

Labor – 15 percent

Civic – 12 percent

Independent – 5 percent

Conservative – 2 percent

Undecided – 7 percent

If you belong to the Labor Party, which candidate would you vote for in the presidential primary?

Sylvenia Denton – 26 percent

Joan Kindred – 24 percent

Walter Delta – 20 percent

Iris Canstrom – 16 percent

Undecided – 14 percent

If you belong to the Labor Party, which candidate would you vote for in the VP primary?

Thomas Stemp – 37 percent

Ophelie Murray – 36 percent

Teraton Wendle – 18 percent

Undecided – 9 percent

If you belong to the Civic Party, which candidate would you vote for in the primary?

Patrick Newsom – 51 percent

Samuel Trenton – 31 percent

Undecided – 18 percent

If you belong to the Conservative Party, which candidate would you vote for in the presidential primary? 

Kaitlyn Jones – 46 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 24 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 20 percent

Undecided – 10 percent

If you belong to the Conservative Party, which candidate would you vote for in the VP primary? 

Delia Sutherland – 42 percent

Lynn Germaine – 25 percent

Jack Oliver – 24 percent

Undecided – 9 percent

What is your opinion of the Mellark administration?

Positive – 54 percent

Neutral – 10 percent

Negative – 31 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of President Mellark’s performance as president?

Approve – 55 percent

Neutral – 5 percent

Disapprove – 34 percent

Undecided – 6 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of Vice President Tarson’s performance as vice president?

Approve – 62 percent

Neutral – 3 percent

Disapprove – 30 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (1)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 55 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 27 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 5 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 4 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 4 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (2)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 56 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 25 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 7 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 4 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (3)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 49 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 22 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 18 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 4 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 3 percent

Undecided – 4 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (4)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 48 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 29 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 3 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 2 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (5)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 54 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 26 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 6 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 5 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 4 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (6)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 56 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 26 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 6 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 3 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 6 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (7)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 49 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 25 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 3 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 4 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (8)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 50 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 26 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 5 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 1 percent

Undecided – 2 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (9)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 45 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 27 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 14 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 7 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 4 percent

Undecided – 3 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (10)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 49 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 23 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 4 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 6 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (11)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 34 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 21 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 20 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 18 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 3 percent

Undecided – 4 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (12)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 30 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 27 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 22 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 17 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 2 percent


ANALYSIS: This set of polls should be deeply satisfying for the Jones and Newsom campaigns as they see their leads solidify in the face of the oncoming primaries next week. Likewise, these results should obviously terrify the Trenton, Pierce, and Maxwell campaigns as they now face an imminent threat of defeat. In addition, the Mellark/Tarson campaign should beware: their worst-case scenario isn’t too far off. With Newsom, Jones, and Denton leading their respective primaries, there’s a very real chance that scenario number 12 from above could come true. In that case, the election is within the margin of error with Kaitlyn Jones potentially upending the President in the popular vote.

Real competition? Mellark faces potentially potent candidates in race for reelection

President Peeta Mellark (Liberty-D12) may have began his reelection campaign at the tip-top of the polls, looking like he might coast to reelection in the same way as his first run, but now the President faces a potentially different scenario.

President Mellark, while still remaining popular, is now officially facing a distinct possibility that three popular major candidates will rise from the primary battles waged in Panem’s opposition parties.

Currently the Centre nomination is set to go to Senator Julie Roydon, who has made a name for herself since her election in the previous midterms and proving that she is no political lightweight. Her crowds are regularly that of around 6,000 people at least, showing large support. Roydon consistently has polled highly in presidential polling, typically ranking second to the President.

In the Civic primary, Senator Patrick Newsom has risen to the top of the polls lately after his landmark debate performance against opponent Samuel Trenton. Newsom, to many Civic voters, represents a more activist wing of the party that has typically been pushed aside in favor of the more centrist establishment. Newsom has also been noted for his grassroots support. At this early point, it’s hard to tell if Newsom will be the nominee, but if the campaign continues like it has, it’s likely that Newsom will be able to pose a real threat to the President in a general election.

Last, but certainly not least, is former Governor Kaitlyn Jones. Known for her tenure as the last remaining Conservative governor in Panem, Jones was swept out on an anti-Conservative wave that even her popularity in her district could not save her from. However, Jones unexpectedly declared a run for president this year, despite most analysts predicting that at most she would run for vice president. More unexpected is the amount of support that Jones would garner in a general election. While she currently is third in Conservative primary polling, Jones polls higher in general election polling than her two rivals, typically even edging out Newsom and Roydon when included. This is likely due to her anonymity and due to her campaign to rebrand the party. Voters tend to associate the party with her rivals (Robert F. Maxwell and Kurtis Pierce) and both do not poll well due to their own scandals and relationship to disgraced former President Rick Canth.

However, a true nightmare scenario for President Mellark is if all three of these candidates managed to make it to a general election. True, the president is popular. However, the military intervention in Greece is causing a major dip in his approval numbers, decreasing them by the day. Panem voters when polled have indicated less and less support for the intervention as time has continued, and it’s highly unlikely that Mellark will be able to sustain a massive level of popularity for much longer, especially if the intervention lasts until election day. This is why this scenario is considered dangerous for the President: falling approval ratings along with the three strongest possible candidates could result in a nearly tied election as four candidates take around 20-25% of the vote each, along with potential for spoiler candidates from the Labor Party and independent candidates. In that case, it’s anyone’s guess who the president of Panem will be at the end of the day- and if the current President survives reelection.

However, the likelihood of such a nightmare scenario would be pretty low as of today. Just one part of the conditions that would cause it not occurring (say, Mellark pulls the troops out of Greece sooner rather than later) would likely result in a greater chance of a Mellark reelection, particularly if Jones or Newsom (or both!) lose their nomination fights.

Civic debate sets record for primary debate viewership

Sen. Patrick Newsom (left) and former Sec. Samuel Trenton enter the stage for the first Civic presidential debate.

The Civic Party held their first presidential debate, and it broke barriers in the political world.

The Civic Party, for one, has never held a debate before nor has it had a contested primary up to this point. The previous nominee each election was former President Cecelia Paylor, who founded the party. She stepped aside this year after multiple failed attempts to regain the office she once held. This year, her VP nominee, Samuel Trenton, faces off against firebrand Sen. Patrick Newsom for the nomination. Trenton brings experience to the table, while Newsom has gained a cult following with the base of the party.

The party’s debate last night set a record for viewership, reaching over thirty million viewers across Panem’s media. This is the highest viewership for a primary debate of any party in Panem’s electoral history, with the previous record holder being the first Liberty presidential debate during the last cycle. This record shows an unprecedented amount of enthusiasm for the Civic primary, despite historically abysmal polling.

Candidates were allowed two minutes per response plus an additional minute of rebuttal time under the condition that their name was mentioned by another candidate. Below are highlights of the debate:


ON THE ECONOMY:

Question: While the economy has improved since the beginning of the Mellark administration, both of you have criticized the economic policies used to encourage financial growth. Explain why, and explain what changes your potential administration would implement.

Trenton: “It’s simple: President Mellark has left behind any normal citizen of Panem. Sure, the economy is better for our big corporations, but go ask any Panem citizen if their wallet feels any bigger. My plan would ensure that corporations are held accountable for the monstrosity of a recession that occurred and further propel growth for our middle and lower class citizens. Everyone needs a break.”

Newsom: “As was previously said, we’ve left our citizens behind. The President campaigned in the last election on dropping the corporate tax rate. Why? Because ninety percent of his campaign donations come from big business, who would benefit from such a decrease. He did cut taxes, but the effects of those cuts have been minimal for any citizen who doesn’t make millions of dollars. We need to raise our corporate tax once again, ensure through extensive regulation that Panem corporations cannot allow for such a disaster such as this past recession to occur, and we need to implement a tax system that actually makes sure our richer citizens pay their fair share.”


ON FOREIGN POLICY:

Question: President Mellark has faced increasing controversy over his decision to seek boots on the ground in the region of Greece following threats of nuclear proliferation. What would you do as president to counter the new nuclear threat and to deal with the Greek conflict?

Newsom: “I’ll answer this very quickly. Number one: to counter the nuclear threat, I think that we should counter it with a broad coalition of nations and with the goal of completely denuclearizing this planet. That means every nation with weapons, including us, should rid themselves of nuclear weapons. Number two, the Greek conflict is not ours to fight. We should not intervene in a foreign nation’s affairs.”

Trenton: “This is where I disagree with my opponent. We should not dismantle our nuclear stockpile. There’s no incentive to do so. In fact, we fought a war against a group of nations that sought to do that for us, so let’s not become the IANO and try to denuclearize the world against the world’s wishes. We need to focus on finding the nukes- with a coalition- and getting them back into stable hands. As for the second point, we have no reason to be in Greece beyond the weapons. We should withdraw at that point.”


ON THE CANDIDATES’ RECORDS:

In this section, candidates were asked individualized questions and allowed three minutes for response. If a candidate’s name is mentioned in a response, they are not allowed to respond as with the rules for standard debate.

Question for Sec. Trenton: Secretary Trenton, your opponents and critics have labeled you as a stand-in candidate for Cecelia Paylor, claiming you are no different and that you are destined to lose in the same way as her. What is your response to these attacks?

Trenton: “My name is not Cecelia Paylor. While she’s a dear friend, she’s got very different views from me, starting with foreign policy for one. As for this election, every candidate is different. Everyone campaigns in their own way. I’m not running for vice president, I’m running for president.”

Question for Sen. Newsom: Senator Newsom, your opponents have attacked you for being inexperienced and radical. What is your response to this?

Newsom: “My opponents pick on my experience because they have nothing else to run on. That’s right: I haven’t been a standard-bearer for this party for twenty years. That’s why I’m here. That’s the point. This party literally has been represented by the same wing that Samuel Trenton represents today for four elections. We have lost four elections with this wing of the party, and we desperately need a new face. So, sure, come after me about my inexperience. I’d say that not being known in this case would be a plus. As for ‘radicalism’, that’s just another way of the establishment attempting to discredit true reform of the Civic Party. It has always appeared that the leadership of this party is intent on talking a big talk, only to take the easy way out. It was only after my insistence with my former colleague, Sadie Myers, that we create a true force of opposition in the Senate and House by banding together with the Labor Party. Instead of opposing conservative policies, Secretary Trenton was content to push conservative policies with the Everdeen and Canth administrations. So let me be clear: there’s one choice here that actually represents change, and that would be me. If you want to keep on this disastrous path for our party, Secretary Trenton would be more than happy to guide you down that path to get his lofty appointment in the next Mellark administration.”


We took a flash poll following the debate regarding who won this debate and who lost it.

Questions: 

  • Going into this debate, who were you planning to vote for in your respective district primary?
  • Who do you think was the overall winner of this debate?
  • Who do you think was the overall loser of this debate?
  • Following this debate, who are you planning to vote for in your respective district primary?

The results are below.


Going into this debate, who were you planning to vote for in your respective district primary?

Sec. Trenton – 54 percent

Sen. Newsom – 40 percent

Undecided – 6 percent

Who do you think was the overall winner of this debate?

Sen. Newsom – 78 percent

Sec. Trenton – 16 percent

Undecided – 6 percent

Who do you think was the overall loser of this debate?

Sec. Trenton – 83 percent

Sen. Newsom – 14 percent

 

Undecided – 3 percent

Following this debate, who are you planning to vote for in your respective district primary?

Sen. Newsom – 48 percent

Sec. Trenton – 39 percent

 

Undecided – 13 percent


ANALYSIS: This debate definitely provided a major setback to Secretary Trenton’s campaign. While he had been riding high prior to this debate with a lead in the most recent poll of fourteen points over Senator Newsom, Trenton crashed and burned in this debate, providing Civic voters with a preview of what could come in a future presidential debate. Particularly bad was his handling of his answer on his connection to former President Paylor, which only muddled the issue and showed complete ineptitude according to our focus group, who described the moment as “completely unpresidential.”

Meanwhile, Newsom shined, particularly with his answer on what his critics say about him. This debate rejuvenated the senator’s campaign, bumping him to a nine point lead over Trenton (which amounts to a twenty-three point bump in the polls overall). Our focus group particularly appreciated the fresh ideas and how he was intent on going a step further than what the Civic platform historically has said.

Make no mistake, a major shift happened here today. Newsom proved that his rallies aren’t just show business. Trenton, however, should be very worried right about now.

Labor presidential debate shows deep divides

Sen. Iris Canstrom speaks at the Labor presidential debate in District 5.

The Labor Party presidential debate kicked off debate season tonight, showing the deep internal divisions within the Labor Party.

Four candidates appeared onstage tonight, comprising the multiple factions of the Labor Party:

  • Former Transportation Sec. Joan Kindred: represents the mainstream liberal view of the Labor Party, championing the vision set forth by previous nominee Felicia Ren.
  • Rep. Sylvenia Denton: represents the progressive wing of the Labor Party, championing universal healthcare, open borders, and is particularly critical of military intervention by the Mellark administration.
  • Former Agriculture Sec. Walter Delta: represents the populist view of the Labor Party, championing the rights of “middle Panem”.
  • Sen. Iris Canstrom: represents the centrist wing of the Labor Party, championing a vision akin to that of previous Labor nominee and ex-president Rick Canth.

All four of these candidates engaged in a war of words against the others, revealing the deep divisions that Labor is currently engaging in at this moment. Candidates were allowed two minutes per response plus an additional minute of rebuttal time under the condition that their name was mentioned by another candidate. Below are highlights of each of the candidates:


ON THE ECONOMY:

Question: The economy under the Mellark administration has certainly improved from that of the Canth administration. However, debate persists on this topic in regards to the sustainability of this boom and the repercussions of such economic policy. Is this a sustainable policy, and as president, what would you do in regards to economic policy to ensure that Panem never falls into a deep economic crisis again?

Kindred: “This economic boom is certainly not sustainable, and if we do not recognize it, the collapse will be worse than the last. The president’s fiscal policy is nothing more than a bandage slapped on a problem that needs surgery to fix. As president, I plan to reverse the tax cuts on businesses and raise overall taxes to a reasonable amount in order to ensure that our government is funded. We must further regulate our economy in order to ensure our stability. We must also ensure that no corporation or bank is too big to fail and we must make sure that no corporation is able to own our government.”

Denton: “Ms. Kindred is correct that it’s not sustainable, but Ms. Kindred also neglects to tell it like it is, as per usual. We are in dire straits here! If we continue down this path, we won’t have the money to fund our government. We won’t be able to keep our economy up and running without a government! We absolutely need to raise our tax rate, for the good of our people and for the good of our country. And as for the banks and corporations, we certainly need to reduce their influence. The amount of money that goes into our political system is a disgrace, and that’s why my campaign, unlike any other candidate’s up here, only is taking money from individual donors, not corporations.”

Kindred’s response: “In response, Representative Denton doesn’t tell it like it is. She tells us all that she is the only real candidate against the banks and corporations; that is false. I can say for a fact that I am not receiving money from any corporate entity. However, this talk of taxing businesses into oblivion is ludicrous. We cannot afford to destroy our business environment. We can, however, hold our officials accountable and ensure transparency.”

Delta: “The whole deal here is that our government isn’t by the people and for the people anymore. The citizens of this country, despite our so-called boom, aren’t feeling any better. I’ve talked to them. Hell, I don’t even feel better. As president, you can bet that I’ll take on these too-big-to-fail businesses, but you can bet your bottom dollar as well that I’m going to be working to make small businesses great again. The little guy has suffered far too much.”

Canstrom: “My plan is this: work to improve small businesses, raise the corporate tax by ten percent, and keep our tax rate low. That’s a winning strategy to economic growth.”


ON FOREIGN POLICY:

Question: President Peeta Mellark promised that as president he would tackle major foreign policy threats from the Oceanian Empire and other terrorist groups. However, he now faces the nuclear threat of the rebels in Greece and other entities that have stolen nuclear weapons from their stockpiles. Do you support military intervention in Greece, and what would you do in this situation as president?

Denton: “I would absolutely not intervene in Greece, and the President is out of his damn mind for asking Congress for intervention. Not only is it none of our business, it’s another war to involve our troops in. It’s another chance for the Liberty Party to please their warmongering donors. It’s another chance for the President to raise his approvals before we get to face off against him. As president, we’d stay out of it.”

Delta: “I would need to see all the information on the table and then make a decision. War is something no one takes lightly, and I’m not going to feel comfortable sending troops to war until I know for certain we need to.”

Canstrom: “I personally believe that the President was correct in asking for intervention, and I would have done the same. It’s far too risky to allow such dangerous weaponry from falling into the hands of a maniac.”

Kindred: “If we are going in for an extended period of time, I do not support intervention. If we are going in solely to collect the nuclear weapons and then leaving, I would support that decision.”


ON THE CANDIDATES’ RECORDS:

In this section, candidates were asked individualized questions and allowed three minutes for response. If a candidate’s name is mentioned in a response, they are not allowed to respond as with the rules for standard debate.

Question for Mr. Delta: Secretary Delta, you have a long history in Panem’s government, serving as a governor and as the Secretary of Agriculture. However, your opponents have campaigned against you on the grounds that you have little to no foreign policy experience. What is your response to this?

Delta: “Well, let me put it this way. As secretary, I was deeply involved with coordinating with the Commerce Department in order to get trade done with foreign nations. This idea that I’m not aware of what the United Kingdom or South Africa is like is simply dumb. In fact, I’d say that virtually all of our candidates this election are good with foreign policy- except for Ms. Denton. She’s probably the least qualified candidate here.”

Question for Sen. Canstrom: Senator Canstrom, your opponents have characterized you as an ineffective Senate leader who doesn’t fight for the platform of the Labor Party. What is your response to this?

Canstrom: “I’ve gotten a lot done as leader, far more than any of my opponents would care to know. However, they also don’t see the grueling process of the Senate. They have never had to deal with so many one-track minded people at once. As for their comments regarding my supposed disloyalty to the party line, that is their way of saying that I am bipartisan. I have not abandoned the Labor Party. In fact, I’m a staunch defender of its values, and I’m also a believer that anyone is welcome in this party. Bipartisanship should be a virtue, not a vice.”

Question for Ms. Kindred: Secretary Kindred, you have a long history in the Labor Party, having been the previous vice presidential nominee twice and the subject of constant speculation as to when you would launch your run for president. However, with that comes the attack that you represent a failed approach to Labor politics and that you are too much of the “Old Guard.” What is your response to this?

Kindred: “Just because I am a former nominee does not mean that I am not able to lead Labor into a new era. If you don’t remember, Walter Delta over there is also a former vice presidential nominee. Under this definition, he also is a member of the “Old Guard.” So is Iris Canstrom to my far left. The only person here who doesn’t represent the so-called “Old Guard” is Ms. Denton over there, and she’s hardly fit to be dogcatcher. Just because I was VP nominee to Felicia Ren does not mean that I can’t bring a new version of the Labor Party to voters. I can do that, and I will do that.”

Question for Rep. Denton: Representative Denton, as stated by two of your opponents here, you entered the race as the candidate with the least governmental experience. You are also attacked for what your opponents call “hot-headedness.” What is your response to this?

Denton: “My opponents would say that I eat babies in order to get themselves across the finish line. Look, experience isn’t what is needed for this job. We need someone with a solid head on their shoulders. My opponents are exactly what’s wrong with the party today. They are so incredibly out of touch with what voters are wanting in the Capitol. So excuse my passion and “hot-headedness,” if you will. I don’t think that the scum that resides in the Capitol is used to anything that isn’t a cold carcass.”


We took a flash poll following the debate regarding who won this debate and who lost it.

Questions: 

  • Going into this debate, who were you planning to vote for in your respective district primary?
  • Who do you think was the overall winner of this debate?
  • Who do you think was the overall loser of this debate?
  • Following this debate, who are you planning to vote for in your respective district primary?

The results are below.


Going into this debate, who were you planning to vote for in your respective district primary?

Sec. Kindred – 24 percent

Rep. Denton – 20 percent

Sec. Delta – 19 percent

Sen. Canstrom – 17 percent

Undecided – 20 percent

Who do you think was the overall winner of this debate?

Rep. Denton – 30 percent

Sec. Delta – 27 percent

Sen. Canstrom – 24 percent

Sec. Kindred – 11 percent

Undecided – 8 percent

Who do you think was the overall loser of this debate?

Sec. Kindred – 41 percent

Rep. Denton – 30 percent

Sec. Delta – 17 percent

Sen. Canstrom – 5 percent

Undecided – 7 percent

Following this debate, who are you planning to vote for in your respective district primary?

Rep. Denton – 22 percent

Sen. Canstrom – 21 percent

Sec. Kindred – 20 percent

Sec. Delta – 20 percent

Undecided – 17 percent


ANALYSIS: The results of this debate are largely inconclusive. Voters from the Labor Party have been left with the same divisions and less answers from their candidates than when they started. However, some details can be deduced from our polling.

First, Joan Kindred bombed with viewers. Her response to representing the “Old Guard” did not play as she had hoped. Instead, it played to Sylvenia Denton’s advantage with our focus groups. However, Denton still perturbs many in focus groups with her demeanor. Nonetheless, Denton’s performance tonight helped her, moving her to the top of our post-debate flash poll.

In addition, Sen. Canstrom and Sec. Delta had successful nights tonight. Both played well (Canstrom for her bipartisanship, and Delta for his overall folksiness and his talk of protecting the little guy) on screen with viewers, and both were bumped in the polls as a result. However, Canstrom had the most to gain, rising to second while Delta tied for third.

This debate, if nothing else, complicated matters. Now, polling shows a very tied field for the nomination with the leading candidate, Denton, only two points away from the last place candidates, Kindred and Delta. This race is anyone’s game at this point.

New polling shows leads for Kindred, Newsom, Maxwell in primaries; Mellark/Tarson lead in general

Recent polling conducted by The Panem Free Press indicates that both the Civic and Labor primaries remain tight, but show clear frontrunners. The Mellark administration still remains popular, but voters have become uneasy over intervening in Greece. Most peculiar of all is Kaitlyn Jones’ general election polling numbers, which show that Conservatives can compete in a post-Canth era.

The questions asked were as follows:

  • Which political party do you affiliate with: Liberty, Labor, Centre, Civic, Conservative, Independent, or Undecided?
  • If you belong to the Labor Party, which candidate would you vote for in the:
    • Presidential primary: Iris Canstrom, Sylvenia Denton, Walter Delta, Joan Kindred, or undecided?
    • VP primary: Ophelie Murray, Thomas Stemp, Teraton Wendle, or undecided?
  • If you belong to the Civic Party, which candidate would you vote for in the primary: Patrick Newsom, Samuel Trenton, or undecided?
  • If you belong to the Conservative Party, which candidate would you vote for in the
    • Presidential primary: Robert F. Maxwell, Kaitlyn Jones, Kurtis Pierce, or undecided?
    • VP primary: Lynn Germaine, Jack Oliver, Delia Sutherland, or undecided?
  • What is your opinion of the Mellark administration: positive, neutral, negative, or undecided?
  • Do you approve or disapprove of President Mellark’s performance as president: approve, neutral, disapprove, or undecided?
  • Do you approve or disapprove of Vice President Tarson’s performance as vice president: approve, neutral, disapprove, or undecided?
  • In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support:
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Samuel Trenton, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Samuel Trenton, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Patrick Newsom, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Patrick Newsom, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Samuel Trenton, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Samuel Trenton, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Patrick Newsom, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Patrick Newsom, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Samuel Trenton, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Samuel Trenton, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Patrick Newsom, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Patrick Newsom, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?

The results are as follows:

Which political party do you affiliate with?

Liberty – 36 percent

Centre – 27 percent

Labor – 15 percent

Civic – 12 percent

Independent – 5 percent

Conservative – 2 percent

Undecided – 3 percent

If you belong to the Labor Party, which candidate would you vote for in the presidential primary?

Joan Kindred – 28 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 20 percent

Walter Delta – 19 percent

Iris Canstrom – 11 percent

Undecided – 22 percent

If you belong to the Labor Party, which candidate would you vote for in the VP primary?

Thomas Stemp – 34 percent

Ophelie Murray – 29 percent

Teraton Wendle – 12 percent

Undecided – 25 percent

If you belong to the Civic Party, which candidate would you vote for in the primary?

Patrick Newsom – 40 percent

Samuel Trenton – 36 percent

Undecided – 24 percent

If you belong to the Conservative Party, which candidate would you vote for in the presidential primary? 

Robert F. Maxwell – 32 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 30 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 23 percent

Undecided – 15 percent

If you belong to the Conservative Party, which candidate would you vote for in the VP primary? 

Lynn Germaine – 31 percent

Jack Oliver – 29 percent

Delia Sutherland – 27 percent

Undecided – 13 percent

What is your opinion of the Mellark administration?

Positive – 60 percent

Neutral – 14 percent

Negative – 11 percent

Undecided – 15 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of President Mellark’s performance as president?

Approve – 67 percent

Neutral – 5 percent

Disapprove – 15 percent

Undecided – 15 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of Vice President Tarson’s performance as vice president?

Approve – 73 percent

Neutral – 10 percent

Disapprove – 12 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (1)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 54 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 23 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 7 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 6 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 5 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (2)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 55 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 23 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 9 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 5 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (3)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 51 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 18 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 6 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 5 percent

Undecided – 4 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (4)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 50 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 25 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 18 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 3 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 2 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (5)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 53 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 24 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 8 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 6 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 4 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (6)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 54 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 23 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 9 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 5 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 6 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (7)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 53 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 19 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 4 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 3 percent

Undecided – 4 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (8)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 50 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 23 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 5 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 4 percent

Undecided – 2 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (9)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 49 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 18 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 15 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 7 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 6 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (10)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 49 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 18 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 17 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 8 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 6 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (11)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 38 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 19 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 18 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 5 percent

Undecided – 4 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (12)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 37 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 21 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 20 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 18 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 2 percent


ANALYSIS: This election could prove competitive. It only takes just the right field of candidates being selected by the voters of each party. What we mean by that statement is that if President Peeta Mellark has to face off against Senator Julie Roydon, Senator Patrick Newsom, and Governor Kaitlyn Jones, then there’s a very real chance that he could lose reelection.

That being said, we must look at the probability of that scenario occurring. Despite that being the ideal scenario for any opposition party, polling still shows that while Julie Roydon will be unopposed, Patrick Newsom is still leading by only a small margin that will likely close whenever primary contests grow closer and Kaitlyn Jones is a full nine points behind Conservative frontrunner Robert F. Maxwell. In this polling survey, we conducted twelve different general election scenarios. Out of those, only one is a perfect storm for the opposition, and even in that scenario, Mellark leads by sixteen points over his closest competitor. In the best case scenario for the President, Newsom is nominated by Civic, reducing the allure of Roydon. This increases the gap between him and his opponents to thirty-three points.

However, it should be noted that the Conservatives have a very real option to revive their party. If Kaitlyn Jones is nominated, polling shows that she immediately jumps into the second or third spots in the polls as voters find her to be charismatic, trustworthy, and a true alternative to President Mellark and Senator Roydon. However, voters simply do not trust Maxwell or Pierce, likely due to Maxwell’s scandals and Pierce’s connection to the Canths.