POLLING: If Election Held Today, Runoff Would Be A Certainty

The Panem Free Press conducted polling for the presidential and VP races throughout the fifteen districts and the Capitol, coming to a result that may not please any candidate.

The questions asked:

  • If you were to vote today for president, who would you select:
    • Peeta Mellark, Patrick Newsom, Iris Canstrom, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, Undecided
  • If you were to vote today for vice president, who would you select:
    • Rebecca Tarson, Quentin Kennedy, Jace Walters, Delia Sutherland, Matthias Christian, Undecided

The results are below.

NATIONAL:

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 22 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 23 percent

Iris Canstrom – 20 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 19 percent

Julie Roydon – 18 percent                                                      Delia Sutherland – 18 percent

Patrick Newsom – 17 percent                                                Matthias Christian – 18 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 14 percent                                                     Quentin Kennedy – 17 percent

Undecided – 9 percent                                                          Undecided – 6 percent

DISTRICT ONE (11 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Julie Roydon – 22 percent                                                      Jace Walters – 22 percent

Iris Canstrom – 21 percent                                                      Rebecca Tarson – 21 percent

Peeta Mellark – 20 percent                                                   Delia Sutherland – 19 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 19 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 15 percent

Patrick Newsom – 6 percent                                                Quentin Kennedy – 7 percent

Undecided – 12 percent                                                         Undecided – 16 percent

DISTRICT TWO (10 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 26 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 25 percent

Julie Roydon – 23 percent                                                      Delia Sutherland – 24 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 19 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 20 percent

Iris Canstrom – 19 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 20 percent

Patrick Newsom – 6 percent                                                 Quentin Kennedy – 7 percent

Undecided – 7 percent                                                          Undecided – 4 percent

DISTRICT THREE (8 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Patrick Newsom – 37 percent                                               Quentin Kennedy – 32 percent

Iris Canstrom – 21 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 24 percent

Julie Roydon – 13 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 15 percent

Peeta Mellark – 12 percent                                                   Rebecca Tarson – 12 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 4 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 5 percent

Undecided – 13 percent                                                        Undecided – 12 percent

DISTRICT FOUR (12 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Julie Roydon – 21 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 20 percent

Peeta Mellark – 21 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 19 percent

Iris Canstrom – 17 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 19 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 20 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 17 percent

Patrick Newsom – 16 percent                                               Quentin Kennedy – 15 percent

Undecided – 5 percent                                                          Undecided – 10 percent

DISTRICT FIVE (3 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Kaitlyn Jones – 27 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 25 percent

Peeta Mellark – 20 percent                                                   Quentin Kennedy – 20 percent

Iris Canstrom – 17 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 19 percent

Julie Roydon – 17 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 17 percent

Patrick Newsom – 16 percent                                                Jace Walters – 15 percent

Undecided – 3 percent                                                           Undecided – 4 percent

DISTRICT SIX (5 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Kaitlyn Jones – 23 percent                                                     Quentin Kennedy – 29 percent

Peeta Mellark – 22 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 21 percent

Julie Roydon – 18 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 16 percent

Iris Canstrom – 16 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 15 percent

Patrick Newsom – 11 percent                                                 Jace Walters – 13 percent

Undecided – 10 percent                                                          Undecided – 6 percent

DISTRICT SEVEN (7 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Kaitlyn Jones – 26 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 22 percent

Peeta Mellark – 21 percent                                                     Rebecca Tarson – 21 percent

Julie Roydon – 19 percent                                                     Quentin Kennedy – 18 percent

Patrick Newsom – 17 percent                                               Jace Walters – 17 percent

Iris Canstrom – 14 percent                                                    Matthias Christian   – 17 percent

Undecided – 3 percent                                                         Undecided – 5 percent

DISTRICT EIGHT (10 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Iris Canstrom – 26 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 24 percent

Julie Roydon – 20 percent                                                      Rebecca Tarson – 21 percent

Peeta Mellark – 20 percent                                                    Matthias Christian – 19 percent

Patrick Newsom – 16 percent                                               Quentin Kennedy – 15 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 11 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 12 percent

Undecided – 7 percent                                                          Undecided – 9 percent

DISTRICT NINE (3 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Iris Canstrom – 24 percent                                                     Rebecca Tarson – 27 percent

Peeta Mellark – 22 percent                                                    Jace Walters – 22 percent

Julie Roydon – 20 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 19 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 19 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 15 percent

Patrick Newsom – 12 percent                                                Quentin Kennedy – 11 percent

Undecided – 3 percent                                                           Undecided – 6 percent

DISTRICT TEN (8 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 27 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 23 percent

Julie Roydon – 23 percent                                                      Matthias Christian – 23 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 19 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 22 percent

Iris Canstrom – 19 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 15 percent

Patrick Newsom – 6 percent                                                 Quentin Kennedy – 8 percent

Undecided – 6 percent                                                          Undecided – 9 percent

DISTRICT ELEVEN (8 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Kaitlyn Jones – 29 percent                                                     Rebecca Tarson – 30 percent

Peeta Mellark – 29 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 28 percent

Patrick Newsom – 14 percent                                               Quentin Kennedy – 17 percent

Iris Canstrom – 11 percent                                                     Jace Walters – 9 percent

Julie Roydon – 7 percent                                                       Matthias Christian – 5 percent

Undecided – 10 percent                                                        Undecided – 11 percent

DISTRICT TWELVE (4 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 71 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 69 percent

Julie Roydon – 11 percent                                                      Matthias Christian – 10 percent

Iris Canstrom – 6 percent                                                      Jace Walters – 5 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 4 percent                                                      Delia Sutherland – 4 percent

Patrick Newsom – 4 percent                                                Quentin Kennedy – 4 percent

Undecided – 4 percent                                                          Undecided – 8 percent

DISTRICT THIRTEEN (13 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 40 percent                                                   Rebecca Tarson – 39 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 27 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 21 percent

Julie Roydon – 14 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 16 percent

Iris Canstrom – 7 percent                                                      Quentin Kennedy – 10 percent

Patrick Newsom – 6 percent                                                Jace Walters – 6 percent

Undecided – 6 percent                                                          Undecided – 8 percent

DISTRICT FOURTEEN (20 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark – 38 percent                                                   Rebecca Tarson – 41 percent

Julie Roydon – 24 percent                                                     Quentin Kennedy – 19 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 14 percent                                                    Delia Sutherland – 16 percent

Iris Canstrom – 8 percent                                                     Matthias Christian – 9 percent

Patrick Newsom – 6 percent                                               Jace Walters – 4 percent

Undecided – 10 percent                                                        Undecided – 11 percent

DISTRICT FIFTEEN (10 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Julie Roydon – 31 percent                                                      Matthias Christian – 26 percent

Peeta Mellark  – 30 percent                                                   Rebecca Tarson – 26 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 14 percent                                                     Delia Sutherland – 17 percent

Patrick Newsom – 12 percent                                               Quentin Kennedy – 14 percent

Iris Canstrom – 7 percent                                                      Jace Walters – 10 percent

Undecided – 6 percent                                                          Undecided – 7 percent

THE CAPITOL (3 EVs):

PRESIDENT:                                                                           VICE PRESIDENT:

Julie Roydon – 30 percent                                                      Matthias Christian – 29 percent

Peeta Mellark – 28 percent                                                    Rebecca Tarson – 28 percent

Iris Canstrom – 15 percent                                                      Jace Walters – 16 percent

Patrick Newsom – 11 percent                                                 Quentin Kennedy – 13 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 10 percent                                                      Delia Sutherland – 10 percent

Undecided – 6 percent                                                           Undecided – 5 percent


ANALYSIS: This polling is the greatest indicator by far of just how much the electorate has become divided. For the first time in Panem’s history, we are looking at an incredibly competitive election, one that under the previous constitutional method would have devolved into an absolutely chaotic House election involving five candidates from five different parties. Instead, following the House election that propelled Rick Canth to the presidency, Panem’s constitution was amended allowing for a second round of voting following the Electoral College’s official vote that determines no candidate to have reached a majority.

If the first round of the election were to be held today, no candidate would receive a majority of the electoral votes. In fact, below is how the vote would break down based on the poll:


PRESIDENT:

Peeta Mellark: D2, D10, D11, D12, D13, D14 (Total: 55 EVs)

Julie Roydon: D1, D4, D15, Capitol (Total: 36 EVs)

Kaitlyn Jones: D5, D6, D7, D11 (Total: 23 EVs)

Iris Canstrom: D8, D9 (Total: 13 EVs)

Patrick Newsom: D3 (Total: 8 EVs)

VICE PRESIDENT:

Rebecca Tarson: D2, D9, D10, D11, D12, D13, D14 (Total: 58 EVs)

Matthias Christian: D4, D15, Capitol (Total: 25 EVs)

Jace Walters: D1, D8 (Total: 21 EVs)

Quentin Kennedy: D3, D6 (Total: 13 EVs)

Delia Sutherland: D5, D7 (Total: 10 EVs)


The needed amount to accede to the executive branch is 68 electoral votes. As shown above, President Mellark misses the cut by 13 electoral votes and Vice President Tarson misses it by 10 electoral votes. In this scenario, the top two electoral vote recipients would advance to another round of balloting, also under the electoral college. In the case of the presidential election, this election would be (according to our polling) President Mellark versus Senator Roydon and Vice President Tarson versus Representative Christian. However, with so many districts having fluctuations in their polling, it is completely possible that President Mellark and Vice President Tarson win this election outright if things go their way. Likewise, it’s also possible that the Liberty ticket doesn’t even make it into the runoff; all it would take is a series of second place finishes in multiple districts to end the Liberty reelection campaign.

LABNC: Canstrom crowned as Labor pres. nominee amid VP infighting

The Labor Party National Convention was held in District 9 over the past two days. Labor Party officials hoped to provide a convention that would not only show a clear-cut alternative to the Mellark administration, but also provide enough newsworthy moments to catch voters’ attention.

The LabNC managed to get wall-to-wall coverage after all. Held June 24th and 25th, the convention caught attention first for the heated battle for the vice presidential nomination and then for the speeches of D4 Rep. Sylvenia Denton and presidential nominee Sen. Iris Canstrom.


NIGHT ONE:

Night one featured nine speakers, all speaking to the vision of a united Labor Party with a clear and conclusive vision. Three of these speakers were candidates for governorships: Shannon Barker (D1), Haylie Shepard (D6), and Ashton North (D11). By having these districtwide candidates speak, it became clear that Labor was showing the nation that they were serious about providing a true alternative to Liberty policies.

Between the districtwide candidate speeches and the vice presidential speeches, delegates on the floor conducted business as planned. Following the primaries, no candidate for vice president reached the needed delegate count of 1,925 to become the nominee. As such, Rep. Teraton Wendle, former Gov. Thomas Stemp, and former. Sen. Ophelie Murray were left to battle for the nomination on a second ballot: something that has only happened once before, and something that is notoriously volatile. Sen. Murray was nominated by former senator Katrina Rowland (D4) and seconded by Vera Adler, former D3 governor. Gov. Stemp was nominated by Senator Jace Walters (D10) and seconded by former governor Walter Delta (D11). Rep. Wendle was nominated by Sen. Lindsay Richards (D10) and seconded by former senator Zena Gates (Capitol).

The first ballot, as expected, was as follows:

Teraton Wendle –  1,850
Thomas Stemp   –  1,550
Ophelie Murray  –    500

Following this ballot, delegates were released from the binds placed upon them by the party and were able to switch their votes as they saw fit. The second ballot ended up inconclusive as well, with movement towards Stemp:

Teraton Wendle –  1,745
Thomas Stemp   –  1,690
Ophelie Murray  –    465

Stemp’s campaign went into overdrive as they saw an opportunity to flip delegates to win the nomination. Wendle’s team went into crisis mode to prevent their lead from collapsing. Murray found herself as a kingmaker in the nomination fight; should she endorse either side, it’s likely that the candidate she chose would easily win due to her delegates. However, Murray chose to withhold an endorsement until after a third ballot. The third ballot results were as follows:

Teraton Wendle –  1,705
Thomas Stemp   –  1,675
Ophelie Murray  –     415
Jace Walters        –     105

The worst fears of Wendle and Stemp’s campaigns had materialized; without an endorsement prior to the third ballot from Murray, some delegates had become dissatisfied with their choices, resulting in the nomination of a fourth candidate in Senator Jace Walters. Walters decided to let the nomination stand, despite his previous refusal to run for federal office. The fourth ballot was now set to become a test on if Walters could manage to strip more delegates to make himself a full force for the nomination. The fourth ballot results were as follows:

Teraton Wendle –  1,490
Thomas Stemp   –  1,435
Jace Walters       –     670
Ophelie Murray –     305

With the fourth ballot, Walters clearly stripped of delegates from each opponent, causing him to catapult ahead of Murray in the delegate count. Murray as a result withdrew from the contest, endorsing Walters.

“We now have a clear choice on who our vice president should be: Jace Walters. While I would love to serve, I cannot secure this nomination. Senator Walters, however, can. He can lead this party into a new era, one that will bring true leadership to the Capitol. I strongly urge you to vote for Walters on the fifth ballot.” — former Senator Ophelie Murray (Labor-D3)

The results of the fifth ballot were as follows:

Jace Walters        –  1,330
Thomas Stemp    –  1,325
Teraton Wendle –  1,245

Murray’s departure, as expected, rocked the race. Her 305 delegates provided a boost to Walters that encouraged many of Wendle and Stemp’s delegates to balk for Walters. Walters, as a result, then held a five-delegate lead over Stemp heading into a sixth ballot, with Wendle in third. The result of the sixth ballot was as follows:

Jace Walters        –   1,825
Teraton Wendle –    1,110

Thomas Stemp    –     975

Following the sixth ballot, it became clear that Walters was likely to end up the nominee. Stemp’s delegates ditched for Walters heavily on the sixth ballot in a surprise to observers. Despite the significant momentum of Walters, Wendle and Stemp refused to leave the field, stating they would ride this out to the end. The results of the seventh ballot were as follows:

Jace Walters        –   1,980
Teraton Wendle –   1,005

Thomas Stemp    –     925

On the seventh ballot, Senator Jace Walters secured the vice presidential nomination of the Labor Party with 1,980 delegates. For the second time in Labor history, one of their nominees would be someone unexpectedly selected at their convention after a competitive primary in which no candidate would end up the nominee.

 

An excerpt from Senator Walters’ acceptance speech:

“Mr. Chairman, delegates, and my friends in the Labor Party, I hereby accept the nomination of the Labor Party for Vice President of the Republic of Panem! While I know that I did not run for this, I feel that it is my job to unite this party. I thank Senator Murray, Governor Stemp, and Representative Wendle for their hard campaign and their devotion to the values that the Labor Party holds so dear. I will undoubtedly seek their counsel in the challenges I will soon face.

The Labor Party has hit a defining crossroads. We can either choose to move forward as a party that is defined by our past, one that is defined by our present, or one that is defined by our future. My friends, we cannot afford to be a party of the past. We must avoid our previous mistakes. We cannot afford to dwell on the petty divisions of the present either. We must look to the future, to that bright future on the horizon. We must continue to look to unite our party in order to get the ideals of this party across the finish line.

There is too much at stake in this election. We cannot afford another four years of catastrophic failure abroad. We cannot afford any more failure for our children on the front of education, or any more abuse to our citizens by the corporations of Panem.

We cannot afford to let this country falter in the face of a president who is clearly in over his head. We must rescue this country. We must unite for the greater good, and we must win this election.” — Senator and VP nominee Jace Walters (Labor-D10)


NIGHT TWO:

Night two featured the remaining eleven speakers, featuring some of the most prominent members of the Labor Party.

Senator Iris Canstrom accepts the Labor Party presidential nomination.

The most noteworthy speeches belonged to Sec. Walter Delta, Sec. Joan Kindred, and former nominee Felicia Ren; however, the most noticed one belonged to Rep. Sylvenia Denton. Denton did not endorse Canstrom following her victory, and the offer for her to speak at the convention was considered to largely be a formality. However, Denton accepted against the odds, leading many to wonder if she would endorse in the speech.

That, however, did not occur. In fact, Denton decided to bash the Labor Party and alleged that Canstrom had stolen the nomination. Following this, she then decided to announce she would not be endorsing Canstrom for president or Walters for vice president, leading to the firebrand representative being booed off of the stage.

Senator Canstrom was nominated to be the Labor presidential nominee by former governor Felicia Ren (D8) and seconded by both former senator Patricia Mann (D9) and former Secretary of Transportation Joan Kindred (D5).

Below are some excerpts of the notable speeches.


“For too long the Liberty Party has ignored you, the working people of this country. After four years of this president, let’s not make another mistake by letting these policies continue.” — Former Secretary of Agriculture, governor, VP nominee, and presidential candidate Walter Delta (Labor-D11)

“You know, I won this race. I should be accepting this nomination. Instead, I’m here, where I was informed that I’d be endorsing the Labor nominees. Let me tell you: after the hell this party put me through in the primary, I’m not endorsing either nominee. This process was fraudulent. Iris Canstrom and especially Jace Walters are frauds.” — Representative and former presidential candidate Sylvenia Denton (Labor-D4)

“Well, I definitely do not agree with Representative Denton, and I sure hope she apologizes for accepting a speaker slot just to bash the party that she’s supposed to be a part of.

What I do know is that Iris Canstrom is no fraud. She’s the real deal. I may have been wanting this nomination, but I’ve got to say that I’m glad that Iris won. She’s an incredible worker, one that will actually represent Panem well. She’s going to make sure our foreign policy is stable and that our country is at least here for our grandchildren.” — Former Secretary of Transportation, representative, VP nominee, and presidential candidate Joan Kindred (Labor-D5)

“When I decided not to run for the Labor nomination for a third time, many were surprised. I’ll tell you why I did that: so we could get a new face, one that shows Panem we mean business. No one shows that more than Iris Canstrom. She’s represented District 9 tremendously in the Senate and the Labor Party as our leader in the Senate. She is capable of crossing the aisle, as we did to unite with Civic to create the Red-Green Coalition. She’s prepared to take the White House by storm and evict Peeta Mellark. She’s ready to help us take this country back!” — Former governor and two-time Labor presidential nominee Felicia Ren (Labor-D8)

“Mr. Chairman, delegates, Labor Party members, and all those who are watching tonight, I am glad to accept the presidential nomination of the Labor Party of Panem!

Boy, it has been an exciting convention process, hasn’t it? I’d like to take a moment to congratulate my running mate Jace Walters on his nomination yesterday. You know, when I asked him to consider running earlier this year, he told me that he wouldn’t dare consider it. I can say without a doubt that I’ll be proud to have him as my vice president.

Panem is at a fork in the road. Behind us are eight years of hapless right-wing policy under two different presidents. Our country is still recovering from the shock of a president who cheated his way into the presidency, and one who is clearly in over his head. Ahead of us are five different paths, and I’d like to detail where those paths lead.

First there is a path that leads to President Peeta Mellark being reelected. It involves four more years of destructive foreign policy, useless domestic policy, and misguided economic policy.

The second path leads to a President Kaitlyn Jones. We would see no accomplishments under a President Jones, simply failure. It would be simply returning to the Canth administration, except perhaps with less scandal.

The third path gives us a President Julie Roydon. A President Roydon is an incredible enigma, for not even she knows what she believes. It would all fall to which lobbyists reach her first.

The fourth path is lucrative, but isn’t the right one. A President Patrick Newsom may sound good to progressives, but he is not nearly prepared to deal with the politics of the Capitol, nor is he prepared to deal with this country’s foreign policy. He’s misguided in many of his policies, and it would lead to no left-wing party holding the presidency after him for at least a generation. It would be an incredible step backwards not just for Labor, but also the entire left.

The final path is the correct one. With me as president, you will see true progressive reform. We will hold corporations accountable for their actions. We will ensure that lobbyists aren’t involved in government decision making. We will reign in our overreaching foreign policy. We will make sure that this country is run FOR the citizens and BY the citizens, not for the highest bidder like these other parties would prefer. It’s high time that we have an administration that is transparent, open, and accountable to its electorate. Let’s take back Panem together.” — Senate Labor Leader and presidential nominee Iris Canstrom (Labor-D9)

FLASHPOLLING:

If you were to vote today for Panem’s next president, who would you choose?

Peeta Mellark (Liberty): 26 percent

Iris Canstrom (Labor): 24 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative): 17 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic): 15 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre): 13 percent

Undecided: 5 percent

 

If you were to vote today for Panem’s next vice president, who would you choose?

Rebecca Tarson (Liberty): 25 percent

Matthias Christian (Centre): 20 percent

Jace Walters (Labor): 19 percent

Delia Sutherland (Conservative): 18 percent

Civic nominee: 12 percent

Undecided: 6 percent

The flashpolling, taken following the convention’s close, showed a massive boost for the Labor ticket, mostly at the expense of the Civic ticket. It also demolished the large lead that Liberty had accumulated from their convention, putting both races within sight for every candidate running. Jace Walters, however, is not quite polling as well as Canstrom is; this is likely due to that he was just introduced to the electorate as the nominee and lacks name recognition. Due to this, the race for VP, if conducted right now, would lead to a runoff between Vice President Tarson and Matthias Christian, the Centre nominee; however, Walters is already closing that gap.

With the jump for the Labor nominees, the Liberty ticket should be very concerned. If such jumps occur for Civic, Centre, and the Conservatives, it’s incredibly likely that another candidate will eventually take the lead before election day and almost certain that we will see this nation’s first runoff election for president and vice president.

January 1: Congress, districtwide offices inaugurated

Today, nine new Senators were inaugurated alongside four new chief executives and two new lieutenant governors. senate-inaugurationLikewise, many new representatives have been inaugurated as well. This is all due to the fifth midterm elections that were held back in November that swept these new officials into their positions.

Nine new Senators were inaugurated (in alphabetical order):

Wesley Benson (Liberty-Capitol), freshman class president
Jacob Ellsworth (Liberty-D3), freshman class vice president
Joseph Garrett (Centre-D15)
Clarke Randall (Centre-D9)
Lindsey Richards (Labor-D10)
Julie Roydon (Centre-Capitol)
Owen Talton (Liberty-D13)
Antonio Wallace (Liberty-D4)
Cedric Wallace (Labor-D8)

In the House, twenty-nine new representatives were inaugurated, nine of which were from seats that flipped parties.

In the districts, three new governors and a chief executive were inaugurated:

Celeste Armstrong (Liberty-Capitol)
Harold Cersisa (Liberty-D4)
Layla Folsom (Liberty-D8)
Serena Ross (Liberty-D5)

Also inaugurated were two lieutenant governors:

Todd Layton (Liberty-D5)
Ethan McCoy (Liberty-D8)

MIDTERM NUMBER FIVE: Midterm elections in Panem expected to be viewed as referendum on Mellark presidency

Today is the day: Panem will return to the ballot box after yet another contentious campaign, only two years after the one that threw Peeta Mellark and Rebecca Tarson into the nation’s highest offices. This year marks the first election that the political left of Panem has united to attempt to make gains through the formation of the Red-Green Coalition, which is a coalition made of the Labor and Civic Parties. As such, rather than both parties fielding candidates who would split the left-wing vote, only one of the two parties will field in any given contest.

Let’s review where the races stand. When we last issued predictions several months ago, things were quite different than where we stand today. Here’s our new predictions for today’s Senate elections:

  • District 1: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 2: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 3: Likely Civic (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 4: Solid Liberty gain (Seat 1), Liberty hold (Seat 2)
  • District 5: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 6: Civic hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 7: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 8: Liberty hold (Seat 1), Tossup (Seat 2)
  • District 9: Labor hold (Seat 1), Lean Centre gain (Seat 2)
  • District 10: Tossup (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 11: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 12: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 13: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 14: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 15: Tilt Liberty (Seat 1)Liberty hold (Seat 2)
  • The Capitol: Likely Liberty (Seat 1), Lean Centre gain (Seat 2)

And here are our predictions for the districtwide elections:

  • District 2: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
  • District 3: Civic hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
  • District 4: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
    • Following the unexpected shakeup of candidates that ushered incumbent Chief of Staff and former VP Harold Cersisa into the race, this race became a certain win for the Liberty Party.
  • District 5: Liberty hold (Governor), Tossup (LG, Legislature)
    • With district senator Serena Ross unseating incumbent Liberty governor Harold Dupont in the Liberty primary, the governor’s office is almost certain to remain in Liberty hands. However, her LG nominee, district representative Todd Layton faces a tough race against Labor nominee Connor Branson and of course incumbent Centre LG Sextimus Dalton.
  • District 8: Likely Liberty gain (Governor, LG), Tossup (Legislature)
    • The Folsom/McCoy ticket has consolidated support due to Folsom’s popularity and due to fatigue of Gov. Ren after her failed presidential runs.
  • District 12: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
  • District 13: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
  • District 14: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
    • Though the race seemed slightly competitive at the beginning, Gov. Melbourne has proved a savvy campaigner and solidified the race for Liberty.
  • The Capitol: Lean Liberty (Chief Executive), Tossup (Executive Council)
    • Despite the Centre push to win the Chief Executive spot, Celeste Armstrong has proved her worth as a candidate while Jake Langley has been a flop in comparison. However, the race for control of the Council remains a tossup, which also helps Langley a little bit.

We will return to you with more coverage following the closing of the polls.


UPDATE: We can now confirm some preliminary results out of a few districts. In District 1, we can now confirm the victories of Senators Felicia Bass and Manfred Weston, who will return to the Capitol for another term on January 1st. This also means that in the race for control of the Senate, the count is 2 Liberty, 0 Labor, 0 Civic, 0 Centre.

We can also confirm that Governor Felix Warren and Lieutenant Governor Susan Stenhjem of District 2 will be reelected with a Liberty legislature to match. In addition, Senators Vance James and Cason Hampton were easily reelected, bringing the Senate Count to 4 Liberty, 0 Labor, 0 Civic, 0 Centre.

UPDATE 1: We can now confirm the first results out of District 3’s Senate races. Both races are supposed to be competitive. In the race for Seat 1, held by Civic Senator Sadie Myers, here’s what we have with 21 percent of the vote counted:

Leaning Civic – 21%

Sadie Myers (Civ) [i] – 42 percent

Jacob Ellsworth (Lib) – 36 percent

Rocky Washington (Centre) – 22 percent

In the race for Seat 2, held by Civic Senator Patrick Newsom, here are how things stand with 19 percent in:

Tilt Civic – 19%

Patrick Newsom (Civ) [i] – 45 percent

Christopher Delford (Lib) – 43 percent

Cheryl Appleby (Centre) – 12 percent

We also can confirm in District 3 that incumbent Civic Governor Bertram Spellings and Lieutenant Governor Sara Turner have been reelected with a Civic legislature. 

UPDATE 2: We can now call the District 4 Seat 1 Senate race for Antonio Wallace, the current Liberty governor of District 4. This is the first Liberty gain and the first seat to flip of the night. We also call that current Liberty Senator Charlton Harrison will be reelected easily, bringing our Senate total to 6 Liberty, 0 Labor, 0 Civic, 0 Centre.

Liberty gain (Seat 1) – 25% in

Antonio Wallace (Lib) – 58 percent

Katrina Rowland (Lab) [i] – 22 percent

Meredith Boeing (Centre) – 20 percent

Liberty hold (Seat 2) – 24% in

Charlton Harrison (Lib) [i] – 64 percent

Tara Carlson (Lab)  – 19 percent

Walter Gamble (Centre) – 17 percent

We can also confirm that current Chief of Staff Harold Cersisa, a Liberty Party member, will be elected governor along with current Liberty lieutenant governor Aaron Evanston winning reelection. They will be inaugurated alongside a Liberty-held legislature. 

UPDATE 3: We can now call the final results of the District 3 Senate races. At this time, it appears that incumbent Civic Senator Patrick Newsom will win reelection against the odds. However, in a cruel twist of fate for the Civic Party, Civic Senate leader Sadie Myers will not return to the Capitol in January and will head into retirement. Instead, the Liberty Party has broken the Civic hold on District 3 and will send Jacob Ellsworth, District 3’s Senate minority leader, to serve as the District’s junior senator. This now brings the Senate count to 7 Liberty, 1 Civic, 0 Labor, 0 Centre.

Liberty gain (Seat 1) – 99%

Jacob Ellsworth (Lib) – 35 percent

Sadie Myers (Civ) [i] – 34 percent

Rocky Washington (Centre) – 31 percent

Civic hold (Seat 2) – 98%

Patrick Newsom (Civ) [i] – 46 percent

Christopher Delford (Lib) – 45 percent

Cheryl Appleby (Centre) – 9 percent

UPDATE 4: We can now announce the first results out of District 5. We can officially call the governor’s race in District 5 for Liberty nominee Serena Ross. We can also declare that Senators Sophia Delacruz and Amanda Quirius will win reelection by healthy margins. This brings our Senate count to 9 Liberty, 1 Civic, 0 Labor, 0 Centre.

In the race for the lieutenant governor’s seat, incumbent Centre LG Sextimus Dalton appears to be holding on- albeit barely- against Liberty nominee Todd Layton and Labor nominee Connor Branson.

Tossup (LG) – 29%

Sextimus Dalton (Centre) [i] – 34 percent

Todd Layton (Lib) – 33 percent

Connor Branson (Lab) – 33 percent

Liberty hold (Seat 1) – 25% in

Sophia Delacruz (Lib) [i] – 76 percent

Dolores Fenway (Centre) – 14 percent

James Ensign (Lab) – 10 percent

Liberty hold (Seat 2) – 24% in

Amanda Quirius (Lib) [i] – 68 percent

Paul Yates (Lab)  – 16 percent

Randal Fassbender (Centre) – 16 percent

UPDATE 5: We can now report results out of Districts 6 and 7 as well as some further numbers from District 5. We can officially state that in District 6, Senators Raylin Kramer and Quentin Kennedy will return to the Capitol, and in District 7, Senators Calvin Wilkie and Walter Briscoe will also be reelected. These results bring our Senate count to 11 Liberty, 3 Civic, 0 Labor, 0 Centre.

Civic hold (D6 Seat 1) – 21% in

Raylin Kramer (Civ) [i] – 43 percent

Richie Batts (Centre) – 32 percent

Rosa Lockwood (Lib) – 25 percent

Civic hold (D6 Seat 2) – 24% in

Quentin Kennedy (Civ) [i] – 60 percent

Ben Hansen (Lib)  – 28 percent

Edward Sanders (Centre) – 12 percent

Liberty hold (D7 Seat 1) – 25% in

Calvin Wilkie (Lib) [i] – 70 percent

Lanora Hart (Centre) – 17 percent

Venera Basking (Lab) – 13 percent

Liberty hold (D7 Seat 2) – 24% in

Walter Briscoe (Lib) [i] – 61 percent

Plymouth Gander (Lab)  – 20 percent

Orlando Ruiz (Centre) – 19 percent

In the race for lieutenant governor of District 5, Liberty nominee Todd Layton has broken away from the pack.

Lean Liberty (LG) – 79%

Todd Layton (Lib) – 40 percent

Sextimus Dalton (Centre) [i] – 35 percent

Connor Branson (Lab) – 25 percent

UPDATE 6: We can now report numbers out of District 8. We can officially call that Senator Kendal Folsom will be reelected by a wide margin, bringing the Senate count to 12 Liberty, 3 Civic, 0 Labor, 0 Centre. We can also project that outgoing Senator Layla Folsom will become the next governor of District 8, defeating incumbent Felicia Ren. However, Folsom will have to deal with a Legislature that is a majority of Labor members.

Liberty hold (Seat 1) – 12% in

Kendal Folsom (Lib) [i] – 71 percent

Mamie Spears (Lab) – 16 percent

Joni Brewster (Centre) – 15 percent

Lean Labor (Seat 2) – 13% in

Cedric Wallace (Lab) – 37 percent

Flossie Maddox (Centre)  – 33 percent

Martin David (Lib) – 30 percent

Liberty gain (Gov/LG) – 12% in

Layla Folsom/Ethan McCoy (Lib) [i] – 46 percent

Felicia Ren/Serena Cartwright (Lab) – 29 percent

Brady Bell/Starla Attaway (Centre) – 25 percent

We can now call the District 5 LG race for Liberty nominee Todd Layton, who will defeat appointed Centre LG Sextimus Dalton. We can also report that the D5 Legislature will barely remain in the hands of the incumbent Liberty majority.

Liberty gain (LG) – 94%

Todd Layton (Lib) – 42 percent

Sextimus Dalton (Centre) [i] – 34 percent

Connor Branson (Lab) – 21 percent

UPDATE 7: We can now make a call in the race for Senate Seat 2 in District 8 as well as report the first numbers out of Districts 9 and 10. In the race for District 8’s open Senate seat, Labor will make a gain with Lieutenant Governor Cedric Wallace elected. In the race for District 9’s first seat in the Senate, we can also predict a win for current Labor Senator Iris Canstrom. These two Labor wins bring the Senate total to 12 Liberty, 3 Civic, 2 Labor, 0 Centre.

Labor gain (D8 Seat 2) – 57% in

Cedric Wallace (Lab) – 43 percent

Flossie Maddox (Centre)  – 31 percent

Martin David (Lib) – 26 percent

Labor hold (D9 Seat 1) – 9% in

Iris Canstrom (Lab) [i] – 64 percent

Martha Irvine (Lib)  – 30 percent

Quinn Raines (Centre) – 6 percent

Still in contention are D9’s second seat and both of District 10’s seats.

Lean Centre (D9 Seat 2) – 13% in

Clarke Randall (Centre) – 38 percent

Patricia Mann (Lab) [i] – 32 percent

Floris Weaver (Lib) – 30 percent

Lean Labor (D10 Seat 1) – 9% in

Jace Walters (Lab) [i] – 43 percent

Howard Strickland (Lib)  – 38 percent

Camryn Shelby (Centre) – 19 percent

Lean Labor (D10 Seat 2) – 3% in

Lindsey Richards (Lab) – 47 percent

Ginger Freedman (Lib) [i]  – 42 percent

Selma Ashland (Centre) – 11 percent

UPDATE 8: We can now report further calls. In the race for District 9’s second Senate seat, Senator Patricia Mann will be unseated by city mayor Clarke Randall, the Centre nominee. This victory is historic, giving the Centre Party their first senator. We can also call that D10 Senator Jace Walters will return to the Senate in a major coup over challenger Howard Strickland, and we can report that D10 Senate majority leader Lindsey Richards will defeat incumbent Liberty senator Ginger Freedman to join him. The count for the Senate is now 12 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre.

Centre gain (D9 Seat 2) – 73% in

Clarke Randall (Centre) – 45 percent

Patricia Mann (Lab) [i] – 34 percent

Floris Weaver (Lib) – 21 percent

Labor hold (D10 Seat 1) – 91% in

Jace Walters (Lab) [i] – 51 percent

Howard Strickland (Lib)  – 43 percent

Camryn Shelby (Centre) – 6 percent

Labor gain (D10 Seat 2) – 93% in

Lindsey Richards (Lab) – 48 percent

Ginger Freedman (Lib) [i]  – 43 percent

Selma Ashland (Centre) – 9 percent

UPDATE 9: We can now report results from Districts 11 and 12. In the race for District 11’s Senate seats, incumbent Senators Michael Debroff and Edith Delsont will be reelected. In the race for the District 12 seats, Senators Hanley Trent and Lenora Quaker will be reelected after running unopposed. These results bring the Senate count to 16 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre. As such, District 12’s senatorial elections have delivered a Liberty majority in the Senate with Vice President Tarson’s tiebreaker vote.

Liberty hold (D11 Seat 1) – 1% in

Michael Debroff (Lib) [i] – 93 percent

Cy Sherbourne (Lab) – 5 percent

Shel Stanley (Centre) – 2 percent

Liberty hold (D11 Seat 2) – 3% in

Edith Delsont (Lib) [i] – 90 percent

Jerrod Allan (Lab) – 6 percent

Hewie Lamar (Centre) – 4 percent

Liberty hold (D12 Seat 1) – >1% in

Hanley Trent (Lib) [i] – 100 percent

Liberty hold (D12 Seat 2) – >1% in

Lenora Quaker (Lib) [i] – 100 percent

In the districtwide elections of District 12, nothing unexpected has occurred- Governor Lynnette Cortez and Lieutenant Governor Harriet Myers have been reelected with a staunch Liberty majority in the legislature.

UPDATE 10: We can now report the results out of District 13. In the race for D13’s Senate seats, Senator Wendy Oppenheim will return to the Senate alongside Governor Owen Talton, who will replace placeholder Senator Woodrow Thorpe. Both were unopposed. This brings the Senate count to 18 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre.

Liberty hold (D13 Seat 1) – >1% in

Wendy Oppenheim (Lib) [i] – 100 percent

Liberty hold (D13 Seat 2) – >1% in

Owen Talton (Lib) – 100 percent

In the districtwide elections of District 13, Lieutenant Governor Allan Perry will succeed Senator-elect Owen Talton as governor with Callista Abbott winning the lieutenant governorship. In addition, Abbott will be succeeded as secretary of state by Johanna Radclyffe. The legislature will remain in Liberty hands.

UPDATE 11: We can now call the results of the District 14 elections and report the first numbers from District 15. In the race for District 14’s Senate seats, Senators Antonin Thibault and Valère Descoteaux were unopposed and were thus reelected. This puts the Senate count at 20 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre.

Liberty hold (D14 Seat 1) – >1% in

Antonin Thibault (Lib) [i] – 100 percent

Liberty hold (D14 Seat 2) – >1% in

Valère Descoteaux (Lib) – 100 percent

In the districtwide elections of District 14, incumbent Governor Royce Melbourne was easily reelected with Lieutenant Governor Alain Durand and a strong Liberty legislature.

In District 15, we can officially call D15’s second Senate seat for Senator Darien Sanford. This brings the Senate count to 21 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre.

In the race for the district’s first Senate seat, incumbent Liberty senator Jarod Yancy has fallen slightly behind Centre nominee Joseph Garnett.

Tilt Centre (Seat 1) – 10% in

Joseph Garnett (Centre) – 51 percent

Jarod Yancy (Lib) [i] – 49 percent

UPDATE 12: We can now report some results out of the Capitol and announce further results from District 15.

In the race for District 15’s remaining Senate seat, Senator Yancy has tied up the race.

Tossup (D15 Seat 1) – 54% in

Jarod Yancy (Lib) [i] – 50 percent

Joseph Garnett (Centre) – 50 percent

In the race for the Capitol’s Senate seats, we can project that Labor Senator Zena Gates will lose her seat to outgoing Chief Executive Wesley Benson, the Liberty nominee, by an unexpectedly large margin. This brings the Senate count to 22 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre.

Liberty hold (Capitol Seat 1) – 39% in

Wesley Benson (Lib)  – 51 percent

Zena Gates (Lab) [i] – 31 percent

Katherine Chapman (Centre) – 18 percent

In the race for the second Capitol seat, Julie Roydon has pulled ahead by a decent margin over current Senator Nikolas Travers but has not ascertained a victory as of yet.

Lean Centre (Capitol Seat 2) – 34% in

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 56 percent

Nikolas Travers (Lib) [i] – 44 percent

We can now project the results of the Capitol’s local elections. In the race for Chief Executive, Celeste Armstrong will succeed her fellow Liberty Party member to become the new CE. In the race for control of the Executive Council, however, the Centre Party will prevail. 

UPDATE 13: We can now make the final calls of the night. In the race for the second D15 Senate seat, Centre nominee Joseph Garnett will defeat incumbent Liberty senator Jarod Yancy, while in the race for the Capitol’s second seat, Centre nominee Julie Roydon will also defeat a Liberty senator, Nikolas Travers. This makes the final count for the Senate out to be 22 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 3 Centre.

Tilt Centre (Seat 1) – 100% in

Joseph Garnett (Centre) – 52 percent

Jarod Yancy (Lib) [i] – 48 percent

Lean Centre (Capitol Seat 2) – 100% in

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 54 percent

Nikolas Travers (Lib) [i] – 46 percent

UPDATE 14: We now have the final results for the House and the Senate and the matching diagrams.

senate-midterm-5The Senate’s new composition will be 22 Liberty senators, 4 Labor senators, 3 Civic senators, and 3 Centre senators.

 

midterm-predictions-house

In the case of the House, the new composition will be 109 Liberty representatives, 45 Centre representatives, 34 Labor representatives, 9 Civic representatives, 2 Conservative representatives, and 1 independent representative.

ANALYSIS:  Tonight was a victory for the opposition without a doubt. However, it must be noted that it didn’t necessarily result in a win for the opposition expected- rather than the Red/Green Coalition succeeding in their expansion into the Senate, the Centre Party managed to pick up its first-ever seats: in fact, it should be noted that they garnered not one, not two, but three seats. This may be the greatest defeat for the Coalition; instead of proving themselves the true opposition, the citizens of Panem chose a different alternative. In other news, the Liberty Party managed to weather a storm that wasn’t looking good for them at the start of the night. Rather than ceding a multitude of vulnerable seats, the party held its own, losing four seats but gaining three, making for a net loss of only one seat. This is due in part to the unexpected win of Jacob Ellsworth in District 3 over Civic Senate leader Sadie Myers, which is nothing short of a political earthquake. Myers wasn’t even predicted to be the more vulnerable of the two senators. Nonetheless, the new Senate freshmen, in alphabetical order, are:

Wesley Benson (Liberty-Capitol)
Jacob Ellsworth (Liberty-D3)
Joseph Garrett (Centre-D15)
Clarke Randall (Centre-D9)
Lindsey Richards (Labor-D10)
Julie Roydon (Centre-Capitol)
Owen Talton (Liberty-D13)
Antonio Wallace (Liberty-D4)
Cedric Wallace (Labor-D8)

In the case of the districtwide elections, Liberty dominated as usual, picking up the District 8 governorship and lieutenant governorship and the District 5 lieutenant governorship. These victories show that Liberty will be expanding their national bench even further as time goes on, limiting other parties. However, Centre and Labor can find some reassurance in the fact that they staunched the bleeding in Districts 5 and 8 as well as the Capitol.

What effect, however, will this election have on the future? Well, the first note on this subject is in regards to the President’s increasingly likely reelection bid. It appears that tonight shows that while Panem citizens are looking for a change on a congressional level, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s because of the administration. In fact, President Mellark should look to note historical precedent in multiple districts in regards to their Senate elections, but also note those that were broken. However, the President should be very wary of some of these results. This midterm resulted in assurances for multiple senators and governors that will be itching to run for president or VP very soon.

 

BREAKING: D4 Liberty Party opts for massive shakeup of midterm candidates

BREAKING: Internal sources from the District 4 Liberty Party are confirming that the slate of candidates that the party is putting forward for the upcoming midterm elections is set to be reshuffled.

The previous slate was the following:

Governor/Lieutenant Governor: Tony Wallace/Aaron Evanston

Senate Seat 1: Cassidy Albert

Senate Seat 2: Charlton Harrison

The Panem Free Press can confirm that the following slate is set to be nominated following withdrawals of candidacy:

Governor/Lieutenant Governor: Harold Cersisa/Aaron Evanston

Senate Seat 1: Tony Wallace

Senate Seat 2: Charlton Harrison

With the entry of Tony Wallace into the race for District 4’s first Senate seat, we can officially move our prediction to Liberty gain as Governor Wallace’s popularity will likely sweep over the unpopular Katrina Rowland and unknown Centre nominee Meredith Boeing.

In the case of presidential chief of staff and former Vice President Harold Cersisa’s entry into the governor’s race, our prediction will change from Lean Liberty to Liberty Hold. The decision by Cersisa to enter the race will send shockwaves nationwide, however, as the decision will affect the Mellark administration.

A Look at the Midterms

If you ask someone when the next election is, a majority of people will tell you that there’s an election every four years. While that’s true, there’s also the midterms- a typically decisive referendum on the policy of the ruling party. This year, the midterms are shaping up to be the second straight election that suits the Liberty Party, all thanks to the success of the Mellark administration.

However, that doesn’t mean that the Red-Green Coalition, Centre, and Conservative Parties have given up entirely in the face of what could be a landslide defeat. Instead, they intend to provide the largest force of opposition in Panem history- fielding prime candidates for races and pouring money into districts that are supposed to be safe for Liberty officeholders.

The following offices are up for election in the midterms.

  • Districtwide offices: Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 13, 14
  • All Senate seats
  • All House seats

Let’s take a look at some of the highlights:

DISTRICT ONE:

District One only has Congressional elections this midterm.

In the Senate, Felicity Bass and Manfred Weston are up for reelection. Both are heavily entrenched, and neither are facing any significant opposition. Our prediction: Liberty hold (Senate seats 1 and 2)

DISTRICT TWO:

The Labor Party and the Centre Party are seeking to capitalize on discomfort with Liberty rule in the typically Liberty-friendly District 2, particularly with the unpopularity of the Taylor administration and the uncertainty of the new Warren administration. In any scenario, it will be an uphill slope for the opposition in a district who has elected a Liberty government since Gale Hawthorne first governed the district. Our prediction: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)

In the case of Senators Vance James and Cason Hampton (both Liberty Party members), both are expected to weather the political storm that is brewing in District 2 without any issue. Our prediction: Liberty hold (Senate seats 1 and 2)

DISTRICT THREE:

District 3 is a top target for Liberty this cycle as they attempt to turn the greenest district in Panem into a Liberty-friendly district.

In the districtwide elections, it’s expected to be a high-profile set of races. However, this doesn’t mean that they will be competitive- Civic holds District 3 heavily, and it’s unlikely that any Civic incumbents will be unseated. In the governor and lieutenant governor’s race, the incumbent ticket of Bertram Spellings and Sara Turner (Civic) will face off against the Liberty ticket of District Senator Kara Jepson and District Representative Hal Rimmer.  Both tickets are unopposed in their primaries. In the legislature, Liberty is attempting to make grand strides by running high-profile candidates, but the legislature is undoubtedly remaining in Civic’s hands. Our prediction: Civic hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)

In the Senate elections, it’s a fight to the death. Sadie Myers, the senior senator and Civic leader in the Senate, will face off against Senate minority leader Jacob Ellsworth (Liberty) and district representative Rocky Washington (Centre) in a high-stakes election. The Civic National Committee is pouring millions into this race to save one of their remaining seats. The biggest question lies with how much Washington draws from Myers and Ellsworth- depending on which way the voters swing, Washington could easily spoil this race for the Civic Party. In the case of first-term Senator Patrick Newsom, the Liberty Party is also making a major play for this seat with the entry of three-term Representative Christopher Delford who is considered a game-changer in a district that was never considered an option previously for Liberty. Newsom will also face off against Cheryl Appleby, the Centre Party businesswoman. In both races, Labor has elected not to field a nominee and back the nominee of the Civic Party in respect to the coalition agreement previously made. Our predictions: Lean Civic (Seat 1 – Myers), Lean Civic (Seat 2 – Newsom)

DISTRICT FOUR:

In District 4, both Congressional and districtwide elections are to be held.

District 4 as of late has a very partisan lean towards the Liberty Party, though it was only a short time ago that the Labor Party had a strong presence in the coastal district. The party still has a presence, though much diminished. The Labor Party, as such, is attempting to capitalize on nostalgia in order to bring their influence back in District 4. As such, they have nominated district Secretary of State Floyd Phillips and district senator Rickey Humphrey in a strong attempt to unseat the incumbent ticket of Governor Antonio “Tony” Wallace and Lieutenant Governor Aaron Evanston. Centre is expected to nominate a ticket as well, but that ticket is undetermined at this time due to a fierce primary fight. Our predictions: Lean Liberty (Governor, LG), Liberty hold (Legislature), Tossup (Secretary of State)

In the senatorial races, the senior senator, Katrina Rowland of the Labor Party, is a very vulnerable target this election in a highly antagonistic district. Though in years past she has held on due to incumbent-friendly environments, she is being heavily targeted by the Liberty Party (who will nominate Cassidy Albert, a representative from District 4) and the Centre Party (who will nominate Meredith Boeing, another representative) for the seat, with opposition pouring millions into removing her from the seat. Right now, it seems likely that Rowland will lose her seat, but due to the Labor Party’s major push in District 4, it’s quite possible that due to the three-way race Rowland makes it out alive. In the case of Senator Charlton Harrison, it is expected that the junior senator will be reelected against Labor nominee Tara Carlson and Centre nominee Walter Gamble. Our predictions: Tossup between Centre and Liberty (Seat 1 – Rowland), Liberty hold (Seat 2 – Harrison)

DISTRICT FIVE:

District 5 has been a serious point of contention this election, and we aren’t even halfway through the cycle. Both districtwide and Congressional elections will be held.

In the districtwide elections, incumbent Liberty governor Harold Dupont incited rage from his own party with his selection of Centre politician Sextimus Dalton as his lieutenant governor. Dupont is being primaried from within his own party as a result, facing off against alternative Liberty tickets like District Senator Serena Ross/District Representative Todd Layton and district agriculture secretary Kate Jarrett/businessman Walter Quick. Dupont as a result is incredibly vulnerable in his primary. Should Dupont survive, he will face off against Civic nominee Taylor Langston and Centre nominee Kathryn Neville and would face a very tough general election favoring Neville, according to recent polls. However, should either Ross or Jarrett succeed in taking the nomination, the race would be easily in their favor. District 5 has a long tradition of electing their governors and lieutenant governors separately, leading to split tickets at times. As such, Dalton faces a different race than Dupont- Dalton at least has a level of popularity, especially with the Centre Party members in District 5. Since Dupont is refusing to name a candidate to run with, it will be a rough election cycle for Dalton who will inevitably face off against Layton or Quick on the Liberty side, and Labor nominee Connor Branson. Our predictions: PRIMARY: Lean Ross; GENERAL: With Dupont – Lean Centre, With Ross/Jarrett – Liberty hold (Governor), Tossup (LG), Tossup (Legislature)

In the races in the Senate, neither are expected to be competitive. Sens. Sophia Delacruz and Amanda Quirius (both Liberty) are facing token opposition. Our prediction: Both Liberty hold (Seats 1 and 2)

DISTRICT SIX:

District 6’s only real elections lie with the Senate, as the districtwide elections occur during presidential years. In the case of Seat 1, held by senior Senator Raylin Kramer (Civic), it is expected to be a hard fought race as the Centre Party and Liberty Party are making hard pushes with candidates like Richie Batts and Rosa Lockwood, respectively. In Seat 2 is junior Senator Quentin Kennedy, who is considered enormously popular among District 6 residents and faces token opposition. Our predictions: Likely Civic (Seat 1 – Kramer), Civic hold (Seat 2 – Kennedy)

DISTRICT SEVEN:

District 7 only has Congressional elections this year. In the case of Senators Calvin Wilkie and Walter Briscoe, neither are expected to face any real opposition this round. Labor/Civic and Centre are appearing to save their candidates for a push on the governor’s mansion in the next presidential cycle. Our predictions: Liberty holds (Seats 1 and 2)

DISTRICT EIGHT:

In District 8, voters will elect districtwide officials and Congressional members.

In the case of the districtwide races, District 8 was spared the opportunity to see yet another rematch of the Felicia Ren vs. Elizabeth Steinbeck race. Steinbeck declined to run again following her appointment as Ambassador to the Council of Nations. Steinbeck famously unseated Ren against the odds seven years ago, only to be defeated by Ren herself four years later. The two then faced off against each other twice more as Ren and Steinbeck both unsuccessfully ran for president. Ren will seek reelection with district senator Serena Cartwright as her running mate to succeed outgoing lieutenant governor Cedric Wallace, who will run for the Senate. Liberty is set to nominate junior Senator Layla Folsom and representative Ethan McCoy in a powerful move to unseat the rivalry and attempt to consolidate Liberty’s power in District 8’s government, while Centre is nominating veteran Brady Bell and businesswoman Starla Attaway. In the legislature, Liberty is attempting to push Labor out as they have been for many years, but Centre is seeking to slip in to gain a plurality. Our predictions: Lean Liberty (Governor and LG), Tossup (Legislature)

The Senators of District 8 have always been noteworthy. For the past two election cycles, the Folsom sisters (Kendal and Layla) have dominated their respective elections. This remains the case of Seat 1, inhabited by Kendal Folsom. However, with Senator Layla Folsom declining to seek reelection to her Senate seat in favor of running for governor, the race for her seat has become a hot mess, with a large Liberty primary threatening the party’s chances of holding the seat in the face of Labor nominee Cedric Wallace and Centre nominee Flossie Maddox. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Seat 1 – Folsom), Tossup (Seat 2 – Open)

DISTRICT NINE:

Senatorial elections are the only highlights of the election season in District 9, with both seats deemed high targets for the Liberty Party and Centre Party.

In the race for Seat 1, currently held by Senator Iris Canstrom, is seen as a very hard target to topple; even with Canstrom being in a district not recently favoring Labor candidates, she’s very heavily entrenched and very heavily funded. She will likely face Martha Irvine, the speaker of the District 9 House, as the Liberty nominee and businesswoman Quinn Raines, the Centre nominee.

In the race for Seat 2, currently held by Senator Patricia Mann, is not so farfetched of a loss. Mann has made a series of controversial missteps in her first term as senator and is not very popular. As such, the race is seen more as one between Liberty nominee Floris Weaver and Centre nominee Clarke Randall.

In both cases, however, the Conservative Party stands to ruin both races. Though the party is not powerful any longer, the nominee of the party in any race typically garners around three percent, leaving many to wonder how this may spoil the election for Liberty or Centre. Our predictions: Likely Labor (Seat 1 – Canstrom), Tossup/Tilt Centre (Seat 2 – Mann)

DISTRICT TEN:

Panem’s tenth district will only have Congressional elections this year.

Currently, Seat 1 is gaining the most attention. Held by Jace Walters of the Labor Party, Labor is looking to keep this seat and is spending a ton on this race. However, Liberty has fielded District 10 Attorney General Howard Strickland and Centre has fielded representative Camryn Shelby, both high-profile candidates, in an attempt to knock off Walters.

In the case of Seat 2, Liberty holds the seat with Ginger Freedman, who isn’t considered much at risk, but at the same time isn’t the most popular. Labor has fielded Lindsey Richards, the Senate minority leader, to run against Freedman, while Centre has opted to avoid this race, nominating a token candidate. Our predictions: Tossup (Seat 1 – Walters), Lean Liberty (Seat 2 – Freedman)

DISTRICT ELEVEN:

District 11 only faces Congressional elections this year.

In the Senate races, Seat 1 is currently held by Liberty senator Michael Debroff and Seat 2 is held by Liberty senator Edith Delsont. Neither are considered competitive. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Seats 1 and 2)

DISTRICT TWELVE:

District 12 will elected districtwide offices this year as well as its Congressional members.

In the districtwide races, the Liberty Party has a definite hold on the district political structure. As such, the district’s makeup is Liberty from top to bottom. Governor Lynnette Cortez will be seeking reelection with appointed Lieutenant Governor Harriet Myers. The pair will not face a Red-Green Coalition challenger, but will face former Centre district representative Kiara Henderson and businessman Stan Warner. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)

In the Senate races of District 12, neither are expected to be remotely competitive. Seat 1 is held by Senator Hanley Trent, a Liberty member, who also chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee and is considered a potential nominee to become attorney general or a Supreme Court justice should a vacancy occur. In Seat 2 is first-term Senator Lenora Quaker, who is growing in familiarity and popularity. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Seats 1 and 2)

DISTRICT THIRTEEN:

District 13 will elect both districtwide and Congressional offices this year.

In the districtwide races, it is expected that Liberty will hold all available seats. Governor Owen Talton will not seek reelection but rather run for the open Senate seat left by Ronald Brown, the new director of the Office of Management and Budget. Lieutenant Governor Allan Perry will seek the office of governor in order to run for reelection with district secretary of state Callista Abbott as his lieutenant gubernatorial running mate. Johanna Radclyffe will run to succeed Abbott as secretary of state. There is token opposition from the Civic and Centre Parties. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)

In the races for the Senate, Seat 1 is held by Wendy Oppenheim and is likely to remain in her hands. Seat 2 is currently held by Woodrow Thorpe, who was nominated by Governor Talton to serve in outgoing Senator Ronald Brown’s place following the latter’s nomination to the OMB. Governor Talton will likely be the Liberty nominee for the seat, facing a primary against a couple district representatives and no-namers. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Seats 1 and 2)

DISTRICT FOURTEEN:

District 14 is a Liberty-dominated district that will elect districtwide and Congressional offices this election. Labor and Centre are seeking to make a broad impact here as they attempt to turn this Liberty stronghold into a tossup district.

In the districtwide elections, newly-inaugurated Governor Royce Melbourne will run for his first full term as governor with newly-appointed Lieutenant Governor Alain Durand. Melbourne became governor following the confirmation of previous Governor Rosalie Descoteaux to President Mellark’s cabinet as Secretary of the Treasury. The Liberty ticket will face the Labor ticket of House minority leader Gérard Fortier and district senator Fleurette Gardinier and the Centre ticket of businessman Léonide Michaud and district representative Lucette André. While the race will be high-profile, it’s expected to fall in Liberty’s favor once again. Our predictions: Likely Liberty (Governor and LG), Liberty hold (Legislature)

In the Senate elections, both seats are currently held by Liberty senators. In the case of Seat 1, that is Antonin Thibault. Thibault chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and is considered a lock for reelection. With Seat 2 comes Valère Descoteaux, the brother of Secretary Descoteaux. The Descoteaux family’s popularity in District 14 is not in question, and neither is the senator’s seat. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Seats 1 and 2)

DISTRICT FIFTEEN:

District 15 will only elect Congressional candidates.

In District 15, the former Capitol, Liberty holds both Senate seats. In Seat 1 is Jarod Yancy, who will face Centre nominee Joseph Garnett. Though the race will be slightly competitive, Yancy is the heavy favorite. In Seat 2 is Darien Sanford, who will face Centre nominee Francis Roscoe. Sanford is expected to easily crush Roscoe. Our predictions: Likely Liberty (Seat 1 – Yancy), Liberty hold (Seat 2 – Sanford)

THE CAPITOL:

The Capitol will also hold elections this season for both the Executive Council and its Congressional seats.

In the race for the Executive Council, it is expected that Liberty and Centre will enter a fierce race for control. The Liberty slate of candidates is headed by current councilmember Dave Fletcher, who is seeking to replace current President pro tempore Celeste Armstrong. Centre’s candidate slate is led by Nora Paulson, another councilmember. Celeste Armstrong will run to succeed outgoing Chief Executive Benson Wesley and will face Centre nominee Jake Langley, an outgoing councilmember, in the general election. Our predictions: Tossup (Executive Council and Chief Executive)

In the race for Senate seats, both incumbents will be hotly challenged. For Senate Seat 1, incumbent Labor senator Zena Gates is at the top of Liberty and Centre’s lists to gain a seat this November. Liberty will nominate Chief Executive Benson Wesley while Centre will nominate Katherine Chapman. Wesley is considered the slight favorite at the moment. For Seat 2, incumbent Liberty senator Nikolas Travers will face Centre nominee Julie Roydon and Civic nominee James Tailor. Travers, as we see it, will likely skim by as usual. Our predictions: Lean Liberty (Seat 1 – Gates), Lean Liberty (Seat 2 – Travers)

 

The Dominance of District 12

During the Dark Days, District 12 was reduced to an afterthought in the minds of the political elite in the Capitol. Now, the mining district has become a politically active hotspot, yielding high-profile figures on a regular basis.

The most obvious examples lie with the President and the First Lady. President Peeta Mellark and First Lady Katniss Everdeen (who also served two terms as president of Panem) are both natives of the mining district. Both made history and shockwaves as the first dual tumblr_mwubg4IdB21qi5k0so1_500victors of the Hunger Games and also as the final victors of the Hunger Games. Both of them brought District 12 to the limelight as they brought victory to their district, which fell into ruin as it became one of the first districts to join the Rebellion against the Capitol.

District 12 then had to rebuild. Of course, Mellark and Everdeen were there to help with the reconstruction. During this time, the future of District 12 looked dim. The firebombing by the Capitol during the war killed thousands and decimated the district. During this time, Mellark and Everdeen retreated into a semi-public persona. Meanwhile, Walter Singleton was elected governor of District 12 with Gertrude Hampton as his lieutenant governor.

Singleton, prior to his election, was on the Transition Council for District 12. Not much was known of him to the voters prior to his run, but he managed to convey a hopeful message that resonated with voters in the wartorn district.  He served with distinction for six years as governor, completing a single four-year term before his reelection to a second term that he served two years of. Secretary Walter SingletonGovernor
Singleton was noted for his infrastructure policy which has henceforth been credited as one of the largest reasons for the recovery of the district. Singleton resigned from the governorship halfway through his second term in order to become the Secretary of Energy for the Everdeen administration. As the inaugural holder, Singleton worked with his successor, Governor Gertrude Hampton, Governor Owen Talton of District 13, and other governors to ensure the success and cleanliness of Panem’s energy programs. Singleton has since served in the Canth, Wilson, and Mellark cabinets in the same position.

Governor Gertrude Hampton, who succeeded Singleton, only served the latter two years of Singleton’s term. Gertrude HamptonHowever, Hampton’s no-holds-barred attitude from serving as the head of the District Senate served her even better as governor, setting the tone for
future governors of the district.
Her term, informally known as a “speed run,” was marked by a record amount of legislation dedicated to the financial situation in the district. As such, she is credited with ensuring the financial solvency of the district following many years of debt.

Vice President Rebecca Tarson, of course, would be the next to be mentioned. Tarson is a native of District 12, coming from a low-income family. A war veteran who served as a weapons specialist and survivor of the firebombing of District 12, Tarson used her experiences to create TarsonTech, a corporation that would go on to Gov. Rebecca Tarson, a Liberty VP contender, announces the endorsements of multiple Liberty Party members following her win in District 13.become the nation’s largest weapons manufacturer. She ran for district senate with serving only a single term, but that single term transformed into many terms that put her in leadership roles, most prominently that of Senate majority leader. Her run for lieutenant governor, a vacant position following the ascension of Gertrude Hampton to the governor’s office, was met to little to no fanfare initially, but Tarson managed to turn the tables on the initial frontrunner, Land Commissioner Samson Lincoln, in a high-profile debate where she decimated him for calling her a “low-life woman who should return to homemaking and caring for her children, who must be missing her.” Tarson’s term as lieutenant governor was short as she made her first successful run for the governor’s office only two years later. Tarson would serve two full terms in the governor’s mansion, overseeing the largest business expansion in district history and improving upon the success of Governors Singleton and Hampton. However, even with the success of the district under Tarson’s tenure, her run for vice president and her subsequent success in the race for the Liberty nomination and general election were never considered a possibility. Tarson started out as a textbook definition of an underdog and secured the nomination against the odds, beating back Secretary Jonathan Madison, Senator Alexandra West, and others. While she started out as the favorite for vice president in the general election, her success was not due to the position she held as the nominee but rather because of her aggressive yet charming campaign style. She was elected in the largest landslide in Panem history alongside her running mate, Peeta Mellark.

Other figures are emerging on the political landscape of District 12 as well. Lynnette Cortez succeeded Tarson as governor after serving under her as lieutenant governor for two terms, continuing the legacy of the governors before her. District 12’s senators also are frequently in the spotlight; Hanley Trent, the senior senator, is frequently mentioned as a potential nominee to the Supreme Court during the future, while Lenora Quaker, the junior senator, previously served on House leadership as the National Liberty Congressional Committee chair and now is the deputy whip in the Senate.

An honorable mention: Governor Gale Hawthorne of District 15 and previously of District 2. Hawthorne initially hailed from the mining district and has long been a close friend to Katniss Everdeen. Then-Governor Gale Hawthorne addresses a crowd at a vice presidential campaign event. Governor Hawthorne was one of three main contenders for the Liberty VP nod last election cycle and barely didn't make the runoff for president this time. Following the Revolution, Hawthorne moved to District 2, entering the military and becoming one of Panem’s most esteemed generals. Following his military tenure, Hawthorne returned to District 2 and ran for governor, serving two terms. He ran for the vice presidency when President Everdeen ran for reelection, losing to eventual winner Celine Oswald. Hawthorne also served as Secretary of Defense under the Everdeen administration and then ran for president in the next two elections, losing to Celine Oswald again and Peeta Mellark.