RUNOFFS: First executive election runoffs to pit Mellark/Tarson against Jones and Christian

It’s been a month since the general election in which President Peeta Mellark and Vice President Rebecca Tarson were forced into runoffs with former Governor Kaitlyn Jones of the Conservative Party and Representative Matthias Christian of the Centre Party, respectively.

In order to win the election, a candidate must win 69 electoral votes. Should each candidate tie at 68 electoral votes, the popular vote winner will be the victor.

Below are our predictions of the districts.

Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Lean Jones/Lean Tarson

District 2: 10 electoral votes – Likely Mellark/Likely Tarson

District 3: 8 electoral votes – Tossup/Tossup

District 4: 12 electoral votes – Tossup/Tossup

District 5: 3 electoral votes – Tilt Jones/Likely Tarson

District 6: 5 electoral votes – Tossup/Tilt Christian

District 7: 7 electoral votes – Tossup/Tilt Tarson

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Lean Mellark/Tilt Christian

District 9: 3 electoral votes – Likely Mellark/Lean Tarson

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Lean Mellark/Safe Christian

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Safe Jones/Tossup

District 12: 5 electoral votes – Safe Mellark/Safe Tarson

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Safe Mellark/Safe Tarson

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Safe Mellark/Safe Tarson

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Tilt Jones/Lean Christian

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Tilt Jones/Lean Christian

Overall Safe/Likely:

Mellark – 51 (Liberty), Jones – 8 (Conservative)

Tarson – 51 (Liberty), Christian – 8 (Centre)

With Leans:

Mellark – 69 (Liberty), Jones – 19 (Conservative)

Tarson – 65 (Liberty), Christian – 18 (Centre)

With Tilts:

Mellark – 69 (Liberty), Jones – 32 (Conservative)

Tarson – 72 (Liberty), Christian – 36 (Centre)

TOSSUP (PRESIDENT) – 35

TOSSUP (VP) – 28

If our predictions hold correct, President Mellark and Vice President Tarson should be able to win reelection tonight without having to win a single tossup district.

UPDATE 1: We can now make our first calls.

Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Jones carries with 56%. Too close to call (Tarson 52%, Christian 48%)

District 2: 10 electoral votes – Mellark carries with 60%. Tarson carries with 56%.

District 3: 8 electoral votes – Too close to call (Jones 51%, Mellark 49%), Christian carries with 59%.

District 4: 12 electoral votes – Too close to call (Jones 52%, Mellark 48%), Too close to call (Christian 50%, Tarson 50%)

District 5: 3 electoral votes – Jones carries with 54%. Too close to call (Tarson 53%, Christian 47%)

District 6: 5 electoral votes – Too close to call (50.5% Jones, 49.5% Mellark), Christian carries with 55%.

District 7: 7 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 9: 3 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 12: 5 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Too early to call.

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Too early to call.

Current presidential EV tallies:

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 14 EVs

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 10 EVs

 

Current vice presidential EV tallies:

 

Matthias Christian (Centre) – 13 EVs

Rebecca Tarson (Liberty) – 10 EVs


UPDATE 2: We can now call more districts.

Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Too close to call (Tarson 50.3%, Christian 49.7%)

District 3: 8 electoral votes – Jones carries with 54%.

District 4: 12 electoral votes – Too close to call (Jones 51%, Mellark 49%), Too close to call (Christian 52%, Tarson 48%)

District 5: 3 electoral votes – Christian carries with 51%.

District 6: 5 electoral votes – Too close to call (52% Jones, 48% Mellark)

District 7: 7 electoral votes – Too close to call (53% Jones, 47% Mellark), Tarson carries with 54%.

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Mellark carries with 53%, Too close to call (Christian 51%, Tarson 49%)

District 9: 3 electoral votes – Mellark carries with 61%, Tarson carries with 55%.

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Mellark carries with 56%, Christian carries with 65%.

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 12: 5 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Too early to call.

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Too early to call.

Current presidential EV tallies:

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 31 EVs

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 22 EVs

Current vice presidential EV tallies:

Matthias Christian (Centre) – 24 EVs

Rebecca Tarson (Liberty) – 20 EVs


UPDATE 3: We can now call more districts.

Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Too close to call (Tarson 50.3%, Christian 49.7%)

District 4: 12 electoral votes – Jones carries with 51.4%, Christian carries with 52.3%.

District 6: 5 electoral votes – Jones carries with 51%.

District 7: 7 electoral votes – Jones carries with 54%.

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Too close to call (Christian 50.8%, Tarson 49.2%)

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Jones carries with 81%, Too close to call (Tarson 52%, Christian 48%)

District 12: 5 electoral votes – Mellark carries with 94%, Tarson carries with 94%.

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Mellark carries with 60%, Tarson carries with 63%.

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Too early to call.

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Too early to call.

Current presidential EV tallies:

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 54 EVs

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 49 EVs

Current vice presidential EV tallies:

Rebecca Tarson (Liberty) – 38 EVs

Matthias Christian (Centre) – 36 EVs


UPDATE 4: We can now call more districts.

Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Christian carries with 50.4%.

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Tarson carries with 50.7%.

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Too close to call (Christian 50.3%, Tarson 49.7%)

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Mellark carries with 64%, Tarson carries with 60%.

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Jones carries with 56%, Christian carries with 59%.

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Jones carries with 55%, Christian carries with 61%.

We can now call the presidential runoff election for Peeta Mellark. President Mellark has been re-elected, albeit narrowly, to a second term over former Governor Kaitlyn Jones of District 11.

Meanwhile, in the vice presidential runoff election, a make-or-break moment has emerged for both candidates. If Tarson wins District 11 as we predicted her to, Tarson will officially win reelection. If Christian manages to upset Tarson- which is a very real possibility- then it will come down to the popular vote winner.

Current presidential EV tallies:

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 69 EVs

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 67 EVs

Current vice presidential EV tallies:

Rebecca Tarson (Liberty) – 68 EVs

Matthias Christian (Centre) – 60 EVs


UPDATE 5: We can now officially call District 11 and report final popular votes, and thus the vice presidential election.

Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Christian carries with 50.1%.

The electoral college officially ties with Matthias Christian’s win in District 11. In accordance with the Second Amendment to the Panem Constitution, the winner of the election is whichever candidate wins the popular vote. This means we can officially call the vice presidential runoff election for Rebecca Tarson. Vice President Rebecca Tarson has been reelected to a second term in an election that even beat out President Mellark’s extremely narrow win tonight in terms of closeness.

Current presidential EV tallies:

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 69 EVs, 52.02% PV ✓

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 67 EVs, 47.98% PV

Current vice presidential EV tallies:

Rebecca Tarson (Liberty) – 68 EVs, 51.58% PV ✓

Matthias Christian (Centre) – 68 EVs, 48.42% PV


ANALYSIS: What an incredibly close set of races. It’s certainly indicative of just how antagonistic this political climate is against the Liberty Party; however, today, things were a little sunnier for the Liberty ticket as they prevailed against their opponents (in extremely narrow races, however.) For the first time ever, in our first runoff ever, we witnessed an electoral college tie that had to be broken using the Second Amendment. The bad part for Matthias Christian in this race is the fact that due to Vice President Tarson running up her numbers in safe Liberty districts (specifically Districts 13 and 14), Tarson clearly won the popular vote outright and would have even if she had lost the electoral college. In fact, the margin was 3.16 percent between the two; as such, there’s certainly no way for him to ask for a recount in an attempt to flip the results. This is certainly not like the election that propelled Rick Canth into office, which means that the new system is working.

Now, we will ponder two different questions. First, with such a divided House, how will Liberty govern? Yes, Liberty still technically holds the Presidency, the Senate, and likely the House through a coalition, but the party is certainly weakened by these results. The party will need to do some real soul-searching in the days to come as Liberty did not fare well this election.

Second, what will become of Kaitlyn Jones and Matthias Christian? We will likely hear a vague answer on this tonight, but it becomes a real question. If the two plan to run for something in the future, how will they remain relevant and not become the has-been nominees next time around? Panem’s political parties have a bad habit of diminishing their integrity in the eyes of the voters by renominating people when they didn’t perform up to standards last time around and planned to change nothing the next time around. There’s one main difference here, however: Jones and Christian both nearly won. With Paylor, Trenton, Ren, Delta, etc., they all were very unsuccessful at getting remotely close to a win. The only two-time candidate to run and successfully win was Rick Canth, and his scenario is far closer to Jones’ and Christian’s than the two are to Paylor and company.

UPDATE 6: President Mellark and Vice President Tarson appeared together at their victory rally in the Capitol.

“Against the odds, we have prevailed. Governor Jones just called me and Representative Christian just called Rebecca to concede their respective elections. We thank both of them for spirited campaigns that brought the most important issues in our country to the forefront. Now, we are on for another four years. Four more years to fix our education system, to ensure Panem’s safety from enemies abroad, and to continue the largest economic growth in Panem’s history. It’s time to get to work, but one thing is for sure: it’s morning in Panem again.” — President Peeta Mellark (Liberty-D12)

Former Governor Kaitlyn Jones addressed a deeply disappointed crowd in District 11:

“I called President-elect Mellark about five minutes ago to wish him congratulations on his reelection as President. I am most proud of our race for the presidency on the pure fact that President Mellark and I have never grown spiteful towards one another and in fact we are quite friendly towards each other. Despite our differences, I offer him my help if he ever should need it and thank him for a truly successful election cycle. My friends, I understand your disappointment. Trust me, I am very well aware of it. However, we are not done. The Conservative vision will continue to move forward in Congress. We will continue to spread conservatism throughout our nation. We will decrease the size of government, and we will make sure Panem’s citizens are freer than ever before. This won’t be the end, and this won’t be the last you see of me.” — former Governor Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative-D11)

Representative Matthias Christian (Centre-D10) spoke to his supporters in his home district:

“Everyone, please calm. I decided moments ago to call and concede this election to Vice President Tarson. Yes, I know; yes, it’s tough to understand. I wanted to contest the results too, but the margin is clear: I lost this election. However, Vice President Tarson will serve this nation as she has before: with integrity and valor. She has my support as she goes into her second term. One thing that we should all take heart in is the fact that Centre is larger than ever before. Our ranks have grown stronger in Congress, and we have made headway in our districts. Our vision works, and Panem is seeing that. It’s time to get to work to make Panem its very best.” — Representative Matthias Christian (Centre-D10)

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