What To Expect From An Unpredictable Runoff

It’s official: Panem will experience its first general runoff election for both president and vice president. President Peeta Mellark (Liberty-D12) will face former Governor Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative-D11) while Vice President Rebecca Tarson (Liberty-D12) will face Representative Matthias Christian (Centre-D10).

The main question in this situation is what the heck happens now.

Whenever we covered what could happen following the presidential debate, the majority of analysts were looking to either a Liberty/Centre runoff across the board, a Liberty/Conservative runoff across the board, or an outright Liberty win. While the latter nearly occurred for Tarson, none of the above actually happened. Instead, voters will get a chance to vote in an election that is Liberty/Conservative and Liberty/Centre.

This leads to many variables changing that weren’t previously discussed. Below, we will detail some of the potential outcomes.

PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFF:

  • Civic/Labor endorses Mellark or Jones: Highly unlikely, but always possible. If this happens, it’s likely a lackluster endorsement that doesn’t lead to much, but in a close scenario, it could push a candidate over the top.
  • Centre endorses Mellark: Centre endorsing anyone wasn’t a thought that had crossed people’s minds until Jones won because people assumed that Roydon had a greater chance of winning. Now that we are here, there’s a 50-50 chance that Centre endorses Mellark. If that happens, Mellark gets a major boost that is likely to propel him to reelection. However, it should be noted that it might be counterproductive for Centre to endorse Mellark but seek to get rid of Tarson, which may prevent an endorsement.
  • Centre endorses Jones: Jones automatically has an uphill slope in a runoff. Liberty voters are consistent voters, and they don’t typically miss a chance to vote in elections- hence why there’s so many Liberty officeholders. However, if Centre endorses Jones, that will invigorate the Conservative base and ensure higher turnout for Jones, leading to a potential Jones victory.

VICE PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFF:

  • Civic/Labor endorses Tarson: Highly unlikely, but always possible. If this happens, it’s likely a lackluster endorsement that doesn’t lead to much, but in a close scenario, it could push Tarson over the top.
  • Civic/Labor endorses Christian: Much more likely than the previous option. If the two left-wing parties have decided that Christian is much more preferable to Tarson, then it’s always possible that they seek to assist Christian. However, it’s worth noting that Christian is more right-wing than left-wing, and that could prevent an endorsement.
  • Conservative Party endorses Mellark: This is a very possible scenario, given the ideological similarity between the two parties. If this occurs, the election will likely go to Tarson. The only issue: the Conservatives are waging war against Liberty up the ballot.
  • Conservative Party endorses Christian: As mentioned previously, Christian comes from the right wing of the Centre Party. While certainly not as right-wing as a member of the Liberty or Conservative Parties, the Conservatives could find him acceptable enough to support, pushing him over the top.
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