PRIMARIES DAY TWO: Labor and Conservatives face off in final primaries in Capitol, D4, D7, D8, D10, D13, D14, and D15

It’s the second primary day for the voters of Panem, with Labor and the Conservatives holding their primaries today in the final eight of the fifteen districts.

Today, however, we will only see results from two different parties rather than all five parties as President Mellark and Vice President Tarson are unopposed in the Liberty Party’s primary for president and VP, while Senator Julie Roydon is unopposed in the Centre Party’s primary for president. Due to internal party rules, neither the Civic or Centre Party will hold primary elections to select their VP nominee, opting instead to allow their nominee to be selected by the candidate or elected by their party convention delegates. Following the previous round, Civic candidate Samuel Trenton dropped out of the Civic presidential primary, causing Senator Patrick Newsom to become the presumptive nominee. As such, we will carry no coverage of the Civic contests, which are expected to go to Newsom due to Trenton’s withdrawal.

The Panem Free Press will be reporting on presidential results only due to the high amount of information that will be put forth during tonight’s reporting.

Our predictions are as follows:

LABOR (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

The Capitol (200 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Safe Wendle
D4 (500 delegates): Likely Denton, Tossup
D7 (350 delegates): Lean Kindred, Lean Wendle
D8 (300 delegates): Lean Canstrom, Tossup
D10 (150 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Lean Stemp
D13 (200 delegates): Tossup, Lean Murray
D14 (250 delegates): Lean Canstrom, Lean Stemp
D15 (200 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Likely Wendle

Delegates needed for nomination: 1,925 delegates

Current presidential delegate count: Canstrom 650, Kindred 500, Delta 350, Denton 250

Current VP delegate count: Wendle 800, Stemp 650, Murray 300

2,100 delegates at stake in Labor’s primaries tonight, and as we previously mentioned, Canstrom is favored in more of these. As things stand, Canstrom has 650 delegates, which is 1,276 short of the nomination. However, should Canstrom win the Capitol, D8, D10, D14, and D15, that puts her at 1,750 delegates, only 175 short. With a win in District 13, which we rate as a tossup, Canstrom will clinch the nomination by 25 delegates. The game plan for Denton, Kindred, and Delta is to at least win District 13 and whichever districts they are predicted to win. If they don’t, Canstrom wins. In the VP race, Wendle has a nicer map today. There’s a pretty decent chance, however, that this race turns into a convention fight; unless Wendle wins D4, there’s no viable path for any candidate.

CONSERVATIVE (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

The Capitol (100 delegates): Likely Pierce, Likely Oliver
D4 (500 delegates): Tossup, Safe Sutherland
D7 (300 delegates): Lean Jones, Lean Sutherland
D8 (200 delegates): Tossup, Tossup
D10 (350 delegates): Likely Jones, Lean Sutherland
D13 (200 delegates): Tossup, Tossup
D14 (300 delegates): Lean Jones, Tossup
D15 (150 delegates): Likely Pierce, Lean Sutherland

Delegates needed for nomination: 1,900 delegates

Current presidential delegate count: Jones 1,350, Pierce 250, Maxwell 100

Current VP delegate count: Sutherland 1,250, Oliver 350, Germaine 100

2,100 delegates up for grabs for Conservatives. With Maxwell out, District 4 becomes a tossup and the ultimate prize of these contests. If Jones stays the course, however, she will easily clinch the nomination even without D4. With her 1,350 delegates from previous contests, Jones is set to be the Conservative nominee should she win D7, D10, and D14 as anticipated. That would put her at 2,300 delegates, which is 400 delegates more than the 50% threshold of 1,900 delegates needed to become the nominee. In the VP race, Sutherland is expected to cruise to the nomination after her wins tonight; she only needs 650 delegates to win the nomination, and she’s predicted to win D4, D7, D10, and D15, which will provide her with 1,300 delegates to bring her to a total of 2,550 delegates. That’s 650 delegates over the threshold.

We’ll be back with results when they come in.

UPDATE: We now have our first results out of the Capitol and District 15.

In the Labor primaries, Senator Iris Canstrom wins both the Capitol and District 15. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 1,050, Kindred 500, Delta 350, Denton 250.

CANSTROM WINS (Capitol Labor) – 10%

Iris Canstrom – 46 percent

Joan Kindred – 29 percent

Walter Delta – 22 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 3 percent

CANSTROM WINS (D15 Labor) – 14%

Iris Canstrom – 51 percent

Walter Delta –  24 percent

Joan Kindred – 20 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 5 percent

In the Conservative primaries, former Secretary Kurtis Pierce notches two wins in the Capitol and D15. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 1,350, Pierce 500, Maxwell 100.

PIERCE WINS (Capitol Con.) – 13%

Kurtis Pierce – 65 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 35 percent

PIERCE WINS (D15 Con.) – 14%

Kurtis Pierce – 68 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 32 percent

With the withdrawal of Samuel Trenton, Senator Patrick Newsom has formally hit the threshold needed for nomination as the presidential nominee of the Civic Party with his win in the Capitol. 

UPDATE 2: We now have results from Districts 7 and 8.

In the Labor primaries, Joan Kindred leads in District 7 and Iris Canstrom leads in District 8. Both contests are currently too early to call.

Lean Kindred (D7 Labor) – 2%

Joan Kindred – 35 percent

Iris Canstrom – 29 percent

Walter Delta – 21 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 15 percent

Lean Canstrom (D8 Labor) – 4%

Iris Canstrom – 36 percent

Walter Delta –  32 percent

Joan Kindred – 23 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 9 percent

In the Conservative primaries, former Governor Kaitlyn Jones surprisingly sweeps the District 7 and 8 primaries despite polling showing closer races in the districts following Maxwell’s exit. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 1,850, Pierce 500, Maxwell 100. 

JONES WINS (D7 Con.) – 16%

Kaitlyn Jones – 58 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 42 percent

JONES WINS (D8 Con.) – 20%

Kaitlyn Jones – 56 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 44 percent

UPDATE 3: We can now declare Joan Kindred the winner in Labor’s D7 primary and Iris Canstrom the winner in Labor’s D8 primary. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 1,350, Kindred 850, Delta 350, Denton 250.

KINDRED WINS (D7 Labor) – 42%

Joan Kindred – 40 percent

Iris Canstrom – 29 percent

Walter Delta – 21 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 15 percent

CANSTROM WINS (D8 Labor) – 44%

Iris Canstrom – 39 percent

Walter Delta –  28 percent

Joan Kindred – 27 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 9 percent

UPDATE 4: We now have results out of Districts 13 and 14.

In the Labor primaries, Walter Delta barely leads in District 13 and Iris Canstrom wins District 14. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 1,600, Kindred 850, Delta 350, Denton 250.

Tossup (D13 Labor) – 22%

Walter Delta – 32 percent

Iris Canstrom – 31 percent

Joan Kindred – 25 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 12 percent

CANSTROM WINS (D14 Labor) – 24%

Iris Canstrom – 36 percent

Walter Delta –  25 percent

Joan Kindred – 23 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 16 percent

In the Conservative primaries, District 13 is too close to call. However, former Governor Kaitlyn Jones wins District 14. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 2,150, Pierce 500, Maxwell 100.  

With her win in District 14, we can now announce that former Governor Kaitlyn Jones has hit the threshold needed to become the Conservative Party’s presidential nominee. 

Tossup (D13 Con.) – 16%

Kaitlyn Jones – 52 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 48 percent

JONES WINS (D14 Con.) – 20%

Kaitlyn Jones – 59 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 41 percent

UPDATE 5: We now have final results out of District 13.

In the fiercely contested Labor primary, we can now predict with 99 percent of the vote in that Iris Canstrom will carry the district. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 1,800, Kindred 850, Delta 350, Denton 250.

CANSTROM WINS (D13 Labor) – 99%

Iris Canstrom – 34 percent

Walter Delta – 30 percent

Joan Kindred – 24 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 12 percent

In the Conservative primary, we can now call District 13 for the new Conservative nominee, Kaitlyn Jones. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 2,350, Pierce 500, Maxwell 100. 

Tossup (D13 Con.) – 96%

Kaitlyn Jones – 53 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 47 percent

UPDATE 6: We now have results out of our final two districts of the night, Districts 4 and 10.

In the Labor primary, we can now call both primaries. In District 4, the winner is Representative Sylvenia Denton by a narrower than expected margin. In District 10, Senator Iris Canstrom seizes the district with a strong win. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 1,950, Kindred 850, Denton 750, Delta 350.

With her win in District 10, we can announce that Senator Iris Canstrom has secured the needed delegates to become the Labor Party’s presidential nominee.

DENTON WINS (D4 Labor) – 15%

Sylvenia Denton – 45 percent

Iris Canstrom – 36 percent

Joan Kindred – 11 percent

Walter Delta – 8 percent

CANSTROM WINS (D10 Labor) – 17%

Iris Canstrom – 56 percent

Joan Kindred –  19 percent

Walter Delta – 17 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 8 percent

In the Conservative primaries, we can surprisingly call both districts on the table. Both District 4 and District 10 will go easily to Conservative nominee Kaitlyn Jones. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 3,200, Pierce 500, Maxwell 100.

JONES WINS (D4 Con.) – 4%

Kaitlyn Jones – 61 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 39 percent

JONES WINS (D10 Con.) – 5%

Kaitlyn Jones – 65 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 35 percent

UPDATE 7: We can now report the results of the VP primaries of the Labor and Conservative Parties.

LABOR:

The Capitol (200 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D4 (500 delegates): Thomas Stemp
D7 (350 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D8 (300 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D10 (150 delegates): Thomas Stemp
D13 (200 delegates): Ophelie Murray
D14 (250 delegates): Thomas Stemp
D15 (200 delegates): Teraton Wendle

Delegates needed for nomination: 1,925 delegates

Final VP delegate count: Wendle 1,850, Stemp 1,550, Murray 500

Following all contests, no candidate has amassed the needed delegates to become the Labor Party’s VP nominee. As such, the first ballot will be inconclusive, leading to a brokered convention.

CONSERVATIVE:

The Capitol (100 delegates): Jack Oliver
D4 (500 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D7 (300 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D8 (200 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D10 (350 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D13 (200 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D14 (300 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D15 (150 delegates): Delia Sutherland

Delegates needed for nomination: 1,900 delegates

Final VP delegate count: Sutherland 3,250, Oliver 450, Germaine 100

Former Secretary Delia Sutherland following all contests will have the needed delegates to become the Conservative Party’s VP nominee.

UPDATE 8: Reports say that Joan Kindred and Walter Delta have called Iris Canstrom to concede the nomination to her. Likewise, Kurtis Pierce conceded the Conservative nomination to Kaitlyn Jones moments ago.

No word has been given on if Sylvenia Denton will concede the election to Canstrom.

UPDATE 9: We now can confirm that Sylvenia Denton has called to concede the Labor Party’s nomination to Iris Canstrom, but witnesses called the phone call a “very terse conversation” and stated that no endorsement was given, only a concession.

UPDATE 10: Senator Iris Canstrom, the recently-crowned Labor Party nominee for president, appeared onstage at a rally in District 10 to deliver a victory speech:

“Thank you, District 10, and thank you, Panem! Against the odds, we have won the Labor nomination! This is one step towards reform of this party, and it’s one step towards true progressive reform in the White House. Our journey begins tonight, and by November, we will take this movement all the way to the Capitol and unseat President Mellark!”

UPDATE 11: Governor Kaitlyn Jones, the newly-minted Conservative nominee for president, appeared with her vice presidential nominee, Delia Sutherland, at her victory party in District 11:

“A few months ago, hardly anyone had heard of me. I was a former governor- albeit, one with a proven track record of how Conservative policies could work. Over these past few months, I have, along with Delia, found just how many Conservatives there really are. Despite what you hear, despite what the media wants you to believe, there is a silent majority, one that is coming out in full force. I’m here for them, and I’m here for you. Now, we bring this majority to the general election, and to the White House!”

UPDATE 12: Senator Patrick Newsom, Civic nominee for president, appeared in District 3 at his victory rally:

“It’s time for a true leader in the White House, and I’m ready to provide that change. Overwhelmingly, you have all provided me with your trust to go and face off against President Mellark in November. Let me be clear: presidents don’t scare me, and it’s time that we replace this one. It’s time for true left-wing policy and reform. It’s time to hold the rich and the corporations accountable. It’s time to ensure that nuclear weapons aren’t even available to be stolen. It’s time to make sure that Panem is safe, secure, and stable.”

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