PRIMARIES DAY ONE: Civic, Labor, Conservatives head to polls in D1, D2, D3, D5, D6, D9, D11, D12

It’s primary day for the voters of Panem, with all parties holding their primaries today in eight of the fifteen districts. Later this week, seven more districts will vote along with the Capitol in their primary elections as well.

Today, however, we will only see results from three different parties rather than all five parties as President Mellark and Vice President Tarson are unopposed in the Liberty Party’s primary for president and VP, while Senator Julie Roydon is unopposed in the Centre Party’s primary for president. Due to internal party rules, neither the Civic or Centre Party will hold primary elections to select their VP nominee, opting instead to allow their nominee to be selected by the candidate or elected by their party convention delegates.

The Panem Free Press will be reporting on presidential results only due to the high amount of information that will be put forth during tonight’s reporting.

Our predictions are as follows:

CIVIC:

D1 (150 delegates): Lean Trenton
D2 (200 delegates): Tossup
D3 (400 delegates): Safe Newsom
D5 (100 delegates): Lean Newsom
D6 (250 delegates): Likely Newsom
D9 (200 delegates): Tossup
D11 (100 delegates): Likely Newsom
D12 (150 delegates): Lean Newsom

1,550 delegates at stake this round of primaries for the Civic Party. The goal for Newsom is to sweep every district except District 1; if he does manage to take District 1, it’s likely that Samuel Trenton will be forced to suspend his campaign. The goal for Trenton is to prevent any sort of sweep for Newsom. While the ultimate goal would be to knock off some of the “lean Newsom” districts along with retaining D1 and the tossup districts, the main goal is just to win D1, D2, and D9 in order to gain a bit of momentum and to ensure that he can last until later this week.

LABOR (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

D1 (300 delegates): Lean Kindred, Safe Stemp
D2 (150 delegates): Tossup, Safe Wendle
D3 (100 delegates): Likely Delta, Safe Murray
D5 (200 delegates): Safe Kindred, Tossup
D6 (250 delegates): Likely Denton, Tossup
D9 (400 delegates): Safe Canstrom, Likely Wendle
D11 (250 delegates): Safe Delta, Likely Stemp
D12 (100 delegates): Tossup, Tossup

1,750 delegates at stake in Labor’s primaries tonight, and if things go as expected, we can easily expect a brokered convention in June. Each candidate obviously has high expectations for tonight. For Kindred, she will need to carry D1 and D5 for certain to stay in, which is looking likely. However, to cement her status as the frontrunner, she will need to win one of the tossups (D2 or D12). Neither are rich in delegates, but as we have learned from other conventions, a singular delegate can deny a candidate the nomination. For Denton, she is expected to win D6, but like Kindred, she needs to go for one of the tossups. Luckily for Denton, some of the contests later in the week will tend to favor her, such as her home district of District 4 that will almost certainly award her its 500 delegates. For Delta, he is likely to take D3 and D11 and like the others could use one of those tossups. Due to the proximity to D12, he stands a real chance in D12, but it’s still anyone’s game there. For Canstrom, she’s sure to take her home district of D9, but she really needs a tossup to remain viable as a candidate. Some of the other contests later in the week may be a bit more favorable, but her odds are significantly less than Denton’s or Delta’s.

CONSERVATIVE (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

D1 (300 delegates): Lean Jones, Lean Sutherland
D2 (250 delegates): Safe Pierce, Lean Sutherland
D3 (100 delegates): Tossup, Tossup
D5 (100 delegates): Lean Maxwell, Lean Germaine
D6 (250 delegates): Likely Jones, Likely Sutherland
D9 (200 delegates): Tossup, Likely Sutherland
D11 (350 delegates): Safe Jones, Lean Oliver
D12 (150 delegates): Likely Jones, Lean Sutherland

1,700 delegates up for grabs for Conservatives, and it seems that most of them are Kaitlyn Jones’ to take. The goal for Jones tonight is to stay the course, win the expected contests (D1, D6, D11, and D12), and attempt to win the two tossups (D3 and D9). If she does that, the path is extremely narrowed for her opponents. The goal for Pierce and Maxwell is to win their singular expected districts (D2 and D5, respectively) and win one or both of the tossups. If neither win a tossup, they face real issues going forward. Meanwhile, in the case of the VP elections, Sutherland seems set to sweep D1, D2, D6, D9, and D12.

We’ll be back with results when they come in.

UPDATE: We now have results out of Districts 1 and 9.

In the Civic primary, Samuel Trenton is currently edging out Patrick Newsom in District 1 while Newsom is leading in District 9.

Tossup (D1 Civic) – 9%

Samuel Trenton – 52 percent

Patrick Newsom – 48 percent

Lean Newsom (D9 Civic) – 12%

Patrick Newsom – 56 percent

Samuel Trenton – 44 percent

In the Labor primary, Joan Kindred leads in District 1 and we can officially make our first call of the night in District 9’s Labor primary, where Iris Canstrom has won her home district’s primary. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 400, Kindred 0, Denton 0, Delta 0.

Lean Kindred (D1 Labor) – 7%

Joan Kindred – 40 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 29 percent

Walter Delta – 16 percent

Iris Canstrom – 15 percent

CANSTROM WINS (D9 Labor) – 16%

Iris Canstrom – 55 percent

Walter Delta –  21 percent

Joan Kindred – 20 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 4 percent

In the Conservative primary, we have our first call from District 1. Governor Kaitlyn Jones will carry the first district and its 300 delegates. The Conservative delegate count is now Jones 300, Maxwell 0, Pierce 0. This call was surprising as it wasn’t expected so early in the night. Good sign for Jones. In District 9, Jones is also off to an early lead.

JONES WINS (D1 Con.) – 8%

Kaitlyn Jones – 46 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 29 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 25 percent

Lean Jones (D9 Con.) – 13%

Kaitlyn Jones – 39 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 32 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 29 percent

UPDATE 2: We can now make our final calls for the remaining contests in D1 and D9.

In the Civic primary, we can now call D1 for Samuel Trenton and D9 for Patrick Newsom. These calls bring the Civic delegate count to Newsom 200, Trenton 150. 

TRENTON WINS (D1 Civic) – 59%

Samuel Trenton – 55 percent

Patrick Newsom – 45 percent

NEWSOM WINS (D9 Civic) – 67%

Patrick Newsom – 59 percent

Samuel Trenton – 41 percent

In the Labor primary, we can now D1 for Joan Kindred. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 400, Kindred 300, Denton 0, Delta 0.

KINDRED WINS (D1 Labor) – 47%

Joan Kindred – 42 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 27 percent

Walter Delta – 16 percent

Iris Canstrom – 15 percent

In the Conservative primary, we can now call D9 for Kaitlyn Jones. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 500, Maxwell 0, Pierce 0. 

JONES WINS (D9 Con.) – 63%

Kaitlyn Jones – 43 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 29 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 28 percent

UPDATE 3: We have our first results out of Districts 2 and 3.

In the Civic primary, we have surprisingly have two calls. In both District 2 and 3, Patrick Newsom has won. This brings the Civic delegate count to Newsom 800, Trenton 150. 

NEWSOM WINS (D2 Civic) – 10%

Samuel Trenton – 63 percent

Patrick Newsom – 37 percent

NEWSOM WINS (D3 Civic) – 2%

Patrick Newsom – 79 percent

Samuel Trenton – 21 percent

In the Labor primary, Iris Canstrom is projected to win District 2. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 400, Kindred 300, Delta 100, Denton 0.

Tossup (D2 Labor) – 72%

Iris Canstrom – 28 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 26 percent

Joan Kindred – 25 percent

Walter Delta – 21 percent

 

In the Conservative primaries, Jones has a bitterly narrow lead in D3 while Kurtis Pierce wins D2. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 500, Pierce 250, Maxwell 0.

PIERCE WINS (D2 Con.) – 8%

Kurtis Pierce – 46 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 29 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 25 percent

Tossup (D3 Con.) – 13%

Kaitlyn Jones – 39 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 38 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 23 percent

UPDATE 4: We now have final results out of Districts 2 and 3.

In the Labor primary, Iris Canstrom leads by a hair in District 2 while we can call District 3 for Walter Delta. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 550, Kindred 300, Delta 100, Denton 0.

CANSTROM WINS (D2 Labor) – 82%

Iris Canstrom – 32 percent

Joan Kindred – 29 percent

Walter Delta – 25 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 15 percent

In the Conservative primaries, Kaitlyn Jones wins D3. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 600, Pierce 250, Maxwell 0.

JONES WINS (D3 Con.) – 93%

Kaitlyn Jones – 39 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 32 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 29 percent

UPDATE 5: We now have our first results out of District 5 and 6.

In the Civic primary, Patrick Newsom wins both District 5 and District 6 easily, bringing the Civic delegate count to Newsom 1150, Trenton 150.

NEWSOM WINS (D5 Civic) – 8%

Samuel Trenton – 57 percent

Patrick Newsom – 43 percent

NEWSOM WINS (D6 Civic) – 10%

Patrick Newsom – 65 percent

Samuel Trenton – 35 percent

In the Labor primary, Joan Kindred wins in her home district of District 5 and Sylvenia Denton notches her first primary win in District 6. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 550, Kindred 500, Denton 250, Delta 100.

KINDRED WINS (D5 Labor) – 1%

Joan Kindred – 67 percent

Iris Canstrom – 17 percent

Walter Delta – 15 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 1 percent

DENTON WINS (D6 Labor) – 1%

Sylvenia Denton – 41 percent

Walter Delta –  22 percent

Joan Kindred – 19 percent

Iris Canstrom – 18 percent

In the Conservative primary, Robert F. Maxwell currently leads in District 5 while Governor Kaitlyn Jones will carry District 6. The Conservative delegate count is now Jones 850, Pierce 250, Maxwell 0. 

Lean Maxwell (D5 Con.) – 3%

Robert F. Maxwell – 36 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 33 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 31 percent

JONES WINS (D6 Con.) – 4%

Kaitlyn Jones – 46 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 29 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 25 percent

UPDATE 6: We can now call the Conservative District 5 primary for Robert F. Maxwell, his first win of the night. This brings the Conservative delegate count to Jones 850, Pierce 250, Maxwell 100. 

MAXWELL WINS (D5 Con.) – 53%

Robert F. Maxwell – 38 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 33 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 29 percent

We also now have our first results out of Districts 11 and 12.

In the Civic primary, Patrick Newsom wins both District 11 and District 12, bringing the Civic delegate count to Newsom 1,400, Trenton 150.

NEWSOM WINS (D11 Civic) – 5%

Samuel Trenton – 58 percent

Patrick Newsom – 42 percent

NEWSOM WINS (D12 Civic) – 7%

Patrick Newsom – 69 percent

Samuel Trenton – 31 percent

In the Labor primary, Joan Kindred wins in her home district of District 5 and Sylvenia Denton notches her first primary win in District 6. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 550, Kindred 500, Delta 350, Denton 250.

DELTA WINS (D11 Labor) – 1%

Walter Delta – 66 percent

Iris Canstrom – 17 percent

Joan Kindred – 16 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 1 percent

Tossup (D12 Labor) – 1%

Sylvenia Denton – 27 percent

Walter Delta –  25 percent

Joan Kindred – 25 percent

Iris Canstrom – 23 percent

In the Conservative primary, Robert F. Maxwell currently leads in District 5 while Governor Kaitlyn Jones will carry District 6. The Conservative delegate count is now Jones 1,350, Pierce 250, Maxwell 100. 

JONES WINS (D11 Con.) – 13%

Kaitlyn Jones – 43 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 30 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 27 percent

JONES WINS (D12 Con.) – 14%

Kaitlyn Jones – 56 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 24 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 20 percent

UPDATE 7: We can now make our final call of the night. In the District 12 Labor primary, we project Iris Canstrom to be the winner. This brings the Labor delegate count to Canstrom 650, Kindred 500, Delta 350, Denton 250.

CANSTROM WINS (D12 Labor) – 99%

Iris Canstrom – 26 percent

Walter Delta –  25 percent

Joan Kindred – 25 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 24 percent

UPDATE 8: We can now provide you with the winners of the vice presidential primaries of the Labor and Conservative Parties.

LABOR:

D1 (300 delegates): Thomas Stemp
D2 (150 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D3 (100 delegates): Ophelie Murray
D5 (200 delegates): Ophelie Murray
D6 (250 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D9 (400 delegates): Teraton Wendle
D11 (250 delegates): Thomas Stemp
D12 (100 delegates): Thomas Stemp

Current delegate count: Wendle 800, Stemp 650, Murray 300

CONSERVATIVE:

D1 (300 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D2 (250 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D3 (100 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D5 (100 delegates): Lynn Germaine
D6 (250 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D9 (200 delegates): Delia Sutherland
D11 (350 delegates): Jack Oliver
D12 (150 delegates): Delia Sutherland

Current delegate count: Sutherland 1,250, Oliver 350, Germaine 100

PRESIDENTIAL DELEGATE COUNTS:

Labor: Canstrom 650, Kindred 500, Delta 350, Denton 250

Civic: Newsom 1,400, Trenton 150

Conservative: Jones 1,350, Pierce 250, Maxwell 100

UPDATE 9: We can now confirm that Robert F. Maxwell and his running mate Lynn Germaine have decided to withdraw their candidacies for the Conservative Party presidential and VP nominations, respectively. No word was given on an endorsement of Jones or Pierce.

ANALYSIS: In the Labor Party presidential primary, Senator Iris Canstrom has emerged as the nominal frontrunner. In a series of contests that were believed to be unfavorable to the relatively unknown senator from District 9, Canstrom emerged the victor in three of them, ripping the two much-needed tossups from the other three candidates. The next contests will favor Canstrom by a little bit, but if Canstrom is not careful, she could lose her edge to Joan Kindred (who didn’t do so terribly tonight either). In the Labor VP primary, there’s a dead heat between the three candidates with no frontrunner.

In the Civic Party presidential primary, Senator Patrick Newsom has essentially put the nails in the coffin of Samuel Trenton’s campaign. Barring a real miracle later this week, Newsom is set to take the stage at the Civic convention as the nominee. Be sure to look for coverage very soon about who Newsom will pick as his VP nominee.

In the Conservative Party presidential primary, former Governor Kaitlyn Jones had a great night that ended up forcing Robert F. Maxwell out of the race. Maxwell simply couldn’t compete with Jones, who is basically an outsider candidate like him but without any baggage. Jones will now go face to face with Kurtis Pierce, who didn’t particularly make any grand moves tonight, in the next set of primaries where she’s expected to do well and clinch the nomination. Likewise, Jones’ running mate Delia Sutherland nearly matched Jones in delegates, forcing Maxwell’s running mate, Lynn Germaine, to drop out.

Here’s our predictions for the next set of contests.

CIVIC:

The Capitol (100 delegates): Safe Trenton
D4 (350 delegates): Lean Newsom
D7 (200 delegates): Likely Newsom
D8 (300 delegates): Tossup
D10 (150 delegates): Likely Newsom
D13 (200 delegates): Lean Newsom
D14 (200 delegates): Lean Newsom
D15 (250 delegates): Safe Trenton

1,750 delegates at stake this next round of primaries for the Civic Party. After this past round, Newsom has 1,400 delegates while Trenton only has a paltry 150 delegates. Newsom only needs to win one more contest in order to clinch the nomination since the threshold is 1,450 delegates; as we see it, Samuel Trenton has no potential way to become the Civic nominee unless he somehow manages to win literally every contest that is coming up.

LABOR (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

The Capitol (200 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Safe Wendle
D4 (500 delegates): Likely Denton, Tossup
D7 (350 delegates): Lean Kindred, Lean Wendle
D8 (300 delegates): Lean Canstrom, Tossup
D10 (150 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Lean Stemp
D13 (200 delegates): Tossup, Lean Murray
D14 (250 delegates): Lean Canstrom, Lean Stemp
D15 (200 delegates): Likely Canstrom, Likely Wendle

2,100 delegates at stake in Labor’s primaries later this week, and as we previously mentioned, Canstrom is favored in more of these. As things stand, Canstrom has 650 delegates, which is 1,276 short of the nomination. However, should Canstrom win the Capitol, D8, D10, D14, and D15, that puts her at 1,750 delegates, only 176 short. With a win in District 13, which we rate as a tossup, Canstrom will clinch the nomination by 24 delegates. The game plan for Denton, Kindred, and Delta is to at least win District 13 and whichever districts they are predicted to win. If they don’t, Canstrom wins. In the VP race, Wendle has a nicer map today. There’s a pretty decent chance, however, that this race turns into a convention fight; unless Wendle wins D4, there’s no viable path for any candidate.

CONSERVATIVE (PRESIDENT, THEN VP):

The Capitol (100 delegates): Likely Pierce, Likely Oliver
D4 (500 delegates): Tossup, Safe Sutherland
D7 (300 delegates): Lean Jones, Lean Sutherland
D8 (200 delegates): Tossup, Tossup
D10 (350 delegates): Likely Jones, Lean Sutherland
D13 (200 delegates): Tossup, Tossup
D14 (300 delegates): Lean Jones, Tossup
D15 (150 delegates): Likely Pierce, Lean Sutherland

2,100 delegates up for grabs for Conservatives. With Maxwell out, District 4 becomes a tossup and the ultimate prize of these contests. If Jones stays the course, however, she will easily clinch the nomination even without D4. With her 1,350 delegates from today’s contests, Jones is set to be the Conservative nominee should she win D7, D10, and D14 as anticipated. That would put her at 2,300 delegates, which is 400 delegates more than the 50% threshold of 1,900 delegates needed to become the nominee. In the VP race, Sutherland is expected to cruise to the nomination after her wins tonight; she only needs 650 delegates to win the nomination, and she’s predicted to win D4, D7, D10, and D15, which will provide her with 1,300 delegates to bring her to a total of 2,550 delegates. That’s 650 delegates over the threshold.

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