New polling shows leads for Kindred, Newsom, Maxwell in primaries; Mellark/Tarson lead in general

Recent polling conducted by The Panem Free Press indicates that both the Civic and Labor primaries remain tight, but show clear frontrunners. The Mellark administration still remains popular, but voters have become uneasy over intervening in Greece. Most peculiar of all is Kaitlyn Jones’ general election polling numbers, which show that Conservatives can compete in a post-Canth era.

The questions asked were as follows:

  • Which political party do you affiliate with: Liberty, Labor, Centre, Civic, Conservative, Independent, or Undecided?
  • If you belong to the Labor Party, which candidate would you vote for in the:
    • Presidential primary: Iris Canstrom, Sylvenia Denton, Walter Delta, Joan Kindred, or undecided?
    • VP primary: Ophelie Murray, Thomas Stemp, Teraton Wendle, or undecided?
  • If you belong to the Civic Party, which candidate would you vote for in the primary: Patrick Newsom, Samuel Trenton, or undecided?
  • If you belong to the Conservative Party, which candidate would you vote for in the
    • Presidential primary: Robert F. Maxwell, Kaitlyn Jones, Kurtis Pierce, or undecided?
    • VP primary: Lynn Germaine, Jack Oliver, Delia Sutherland, or undecided?
  • What is your opinion of the Mellark administration: positive, neutral, negative, or undecided?
  • Do you approve or disapprove of President Mellark’s performance as president: approve, neutral, disapprove, or undecided?
  • Do you approve or disapprove of Vice President Tarson’s performance as vice president: approve, neutral, disapprove, or undecided?
  • In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support:
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Samuel Trenton, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Samuel Trenton, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Patrick Newsom, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Patrick Newsom, Robert F. Maxwell, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Samuel Trenton, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Samuel Trenton, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Patrick Newsom, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Patrick Newsom, Kurtis Pierce, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Samuel Trenton, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Samuel Trenton, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Joan Kindred, Patrick Newsom, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?
    • Peeta Mellark, Sylvenia Denton, Patrick Newsom, Kaitlyn Jones, Julie Roydon, or undecided?

The results are as follows:

Which political party do you affiliate with?

Liberty – 36 percent

Centre – 27 percent

Labor – 15 percent

Civic – 12 percent

Independent – 5 percent

Conservative – 2 percent

Undecided – 3 percent

If you belong to the Labor Party, which candidate would you vote for in the presidential primary?

Joan Kindred – 28 percent

Sylvenia Denton – 20 percent

Walter Delta – 19 percent

Iris Canstrom – 11 percent

Undecided – 22 percent

If you belong to the Labor Party, which candidate would you vote for in the VP primary?

Thomas Stemp – 34 percent

Ophelie Murray – 29 percent

Teraton Wendle – 12 percent

Undecided – 25 percent

If you belong to the Civic Party, which candidate would you vote for in the primary?

Patrick Newsom – 40 percent

Samuel Trenton – 36 percent

Undecided – 24 percent

If you belong to the Conservative Party, which candidate would you vote for in the presidential primary? 

Robert F. Maxwell – 32 percent

Kurtis Pierce – 30 percent

Kaitlyn Jones – 23 percent

Undecided – 15 percent

If you belong to the Conservative Party, which candidate would you vote for in the VP primary? 

Lynn Germaine – 31 percent

Jack Oliver – 29 percent

Delia Sutherland – 27 percent

Undecided – 13 percent

What is your opinion of the Mellark administration?

Positive – 60 percent

Neutral – 14 percent

Negative – 11 percent

Undecided – 15 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of President Mellark’s performance as president?

Approve – 67 percent

Neutral – 5 percent

Disapprove – 15 percent

Undecided – 15 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of Vice President Tarson’s performance as vice president?

Approve – 73 percent

Neutral – 10 percent

Disapprove – 12 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (1)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 54 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 23 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 7 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 6 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 5 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (2)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 55 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 23 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 9 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 5 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (3)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 51 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 18 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 6 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 5 percent

Undecided – 4 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (4)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 50 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 25 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 18 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Conservative) – 3 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 2 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (5)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 53 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 24 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 8 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 6 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 4 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (6)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 54 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 23 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 9 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 5 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 6 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (7)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 53 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 19 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 4 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 3 percent

Undecided – 4 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (8)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 50 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 23 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 5 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 4 percent

Undecided – 2 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (9)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 49 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 18 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 15 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 7 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 6 percent

Undecided – 5 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (10)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 49 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 18 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 17 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 8 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 6 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (11)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 38 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 19 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 18 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 16 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 5 percent

Undecided – 4 percent

In a hypothetical election, which of these candidates would you support: (12)

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 37 percent

Kaitlyn Jones (Conservative) – 21 percent

Patrick Newsom (Civic) – 20 percent

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 18 percent

Sylvenia Denton (Labor) – 2 percent

Undecided – 2 percent


ANALYSIS: This election could prove competitive. It only takes just the right field of candidates being selected by the voters of each party. What we mean by that statement is that if President Peeta Mellark has to face off against Senator Julie Roydon, Senator Patrick Newsom, and Governor Kaitlyn Jones, then there’s a very real chance that he could lose reelection.

That being said, we must look at the probability of that scenario occurring. Despite that being the ideal scenario for any opposition party, polling still shows that while Julie Roydon will be unopposed, Patrick Newsom is still leading by only a small margin that will likely close whenever primary contests grow closer and Kaitlyn Jones is a full nine points behind Conservative frontrunner Robert F. Maxwell. In this polling survey, we conducted twelve different general election scenarios. Out of those, only one is a perfect storm for the opposition, and even in that scenario, Mellark leads by sixteen points over his closest competitor. In the best case scenario for the President, Newsom is nominated by Civic, reducing the allure of Roydon. This increases the gap between him and his opponents to thirty-three points.

However, it should be noted that the Conservatives have a very real option to revive their party. If Kaitlyn Jones is nominated, polling shows that she immediately jumps into the second or third spots in the polls as voters find her to be charismatic, trustworthy, and a true alternative to President Mellark and Senator Roydon. However, voters simply do not trust Maxwell or Pierce, likely due to Maxwell’s scandals and Pierce’s connection to the Canths.

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