Back to the Presidency

Now that the midterms are over, it’s socially acceptable in political circles to talk about the upcoming presidential election. After all, now is when the upcoming candidates are deciding; they’ll be announcing within a year at the least.

However, who’s going to run against the most popular incumbent in history? Let’s face it: President Peeta Mellark is even more popular than his shining star of a wife, former President Katniss Everdeen. Everdeen’s reelection campaign was incredibly daunting itself; it didn’t necessarily stop anyone from running, but any other candidate knew they were going to lose from day one.

Albeit, as I mentioned, candidates will still emerge. Let’s look at some of those that may take the jump despite the political calculus that works against them:

From the Civic Party:

  • Former President Cecelia Paylor: the former nominee for the past three elections, she’s a four-time loser. However, she’s undoubtedly the most experienced of the pack. Notably, though, Paylor ruled herself out of a fifth consecutive bid during her concession speech. It seems highly unlikely that she would run again. Odds of running: 10%
  • Former Secretary Samuel Trenton: the former nominee for VP for the past three elections, Trenton lacks the aspect of fresh air and enforces the tradition of “next-in-line”. He’s also eminently qualified, but for a party looking to go in a new (and ideally winning) direction, he’s not what many are looking for. Our prediction is that he will run and will do well initially due to name recognition. Odds of running: 85%
  • Governor Bertram Spellings: the incumbent governor of District 3 and the only Civic governor in the nation. He’s passed on running in the past, but that’s likely due to Paylor. He’s refused to rule it out this round, so we’d put it at a fifty-fifty chance that he runs. Odds of running: 50%
  • Former Senator Sadie Myers: the former Civic leader in the Senate, Myers is looking to stay in the game. However, her defeat has dampened any hope she had of running. She may run, but she’s very likely to lose. Odds of running: 40%
  • Senator Patrick Newsom: the senior senator from District 3 was reelected this year and has major campaigning abilities that his former colleague, Sadie Myers, lacks. He’s made it clear that he’s very interested in running, pushing for a more modern plan for the Civic Party’s future. Analysts predict that he would likely be the best of the candidates for the nomination in many regards. Odds of running: 95%

From the Labor Party:

  • Former Governor Felicia Ren: the previous nominee and former governor of District 8, she is similar to Paylor in the realm of “been there, done that”. Labor voters have indicated that they are tiring of her, and her time may have come, especially after her loss in the midterms. Odds of running: 65%
  • Former Secretary Joan Kindred: the previous VP nominee, she fits the “next-in-line” qualification, but is also associated with Ren and previous losing elections to a fault. She’s almost certain to run, though. Odds of running: 90%
  • Senator Jace Walters: the senior senator from District 10. Walters survived a fierce reelection campaign and is a great orator, but represents District 10, a Liberty-governed district, which would cede control of his seat should he win. However, with a hard push for the Labor Party in this district, they could manage to inaugurate both Walters and a Labor governor with some luck. Nonetheless, Walters has pushed himself away from speculation. Odds of running: 30%

From the Centre Party:

  • Senator Clarke Randall: the Centre leader in the Senate, Randall is the most known of the newly-elected Centre senators. However, out of the three, only two have refused to rule out a campaign: Randall and Julie Roydon. Randall is the less likely candidate, as he does lead his party in the Senate. However, many are pushing for Randall to run due to his clear political talents, saying that not only would he be the ideal nominee, but he could manage to push the party into competition. Odds of running: 35%
  • Senator Julie Roydon: the junior senator from the Capitol. Roydon is the only other possible candidate, and she’s made definite moves towards running. However, she’s not as savvy a campaigner as Clarke Randall, but she’d be a decent nominee nonetheless. Odds of running: 95%

From the Conservative Party:

The Conservatives are in shambles after the Canth era, and there’s a strong likelihood that the party will push for a nominee that is looking to reshape the party’s image.

  • Businessman Robert F. Maxwell: The man who came second to the former President last time around. Maxwell proved his worth as a campaigner last time, but is reviled by the Conservative establishment for ditching the party to run as an independent. Lucky for him, the Conservatives as a whole are on the verge of completely rejecting the establishment. However, what may give him pause is the scandals unveiled during the last campaign. Odds of running: 55%
  • Former Secretary Lynn Germaine: the running mate to Maxwell last campaign. She’s been open to a run after being vindicated from any legal issues, but is likewise associated with the last campaign. She’s made it known that she won’t be running if Maxwell decides to pursue a campaign, but otherwise, she’s set to go. Odds of running: 45%
  • Representative Kari Lyles: the Conservative leader in the House, Lyles said she’s not interested, but should worse come to worst, she may step up. Odds of running: 5%

From the politically independent:

  • Ambassador Elizabeth Steinbeck: she never formally ruled herself out, but the controversial independent has made her loyalty to President Mellark known by not running for governor of District 8 again. Odds of running: 15%
  • Former district representative Pauline Crystal: previously served as Steinbeck’s running mate. She’s well-known, but it’s unknown if she’s interested. Odds of running: 35%

From the Liberty Party: 

  • President Peeta Mellark: There’s only one name on this list, and that’s for a reason. Mellark, as previously mentioned, is incredibly popular and is beloved by his own party. He’s started the procedure in order to run, and it’s expected that he’s going to run. Odds of running: Near 100%
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