MIDTERM NUMBER FIVE: Midterm elections in Panem expected to be viewed as referendum on Mellark presidency

Today is the day: Panem will return to the ballot box after yet another contentious campaign, only two years after the one that threw Peeta Mellark and Rebecca Tarson into the nation’s highest offices. This year marks the first election that the political left of Panem has united to attempt to make gains through the formation of the Red-Green Coalition, which is a coalition made of the Labor and Civic Parties. As such, rather than both parties fielding candidates who would split the left-wing vote, only one of the two parties will field in any given contest.

Let’s review where the races stand. When we last issued predictions several months ago, things were quite different than where we stand today. Here’s our new predictions for today’s Senate elections:

  • District 1: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 2: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 3: Likely Civic (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 4: Solid Liberty gain (Seat 1), Liberty hold (Seat 2)
  • District 5: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 6: Civic hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 7: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 8: Liberty hold (Seat 1), Tossup (Seat 2)
  • District 9: Labor hold (Seat 1), Lean Centre gain (Seat 2)
  • District 10: Tossup (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 11: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 12: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 13: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 14: Liberty hold (Seats 1, 2)
  • District 15: Tilt Liberty (Seat 1)Liberty hold (Seat 2)
  • The Capitol: Likely Liberty (Seat 1), Lean Centre gain (Seat 2)

And here are our predictions for the districtwide elections:

  • District 2: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
  • District 3: Civic hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
  • District 4: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
    • Following the unexpected shakeup of candidates that ushered incumbent Chief of Staff and former VP Harold Cersisa into the race, this race became a certain win for the Liberty Party.
  • District 5: Liberty hold (Governor), Tossup (LG, Legislature)
    • With district senator Serena Ross unseating incumbent Liberty governor Harold Dupont in the Liberty primary, the governor’s office is almost certain to remain in Liberty hands. However, her LG nominee, district representative Todd Layton faces a tough race against Labor nominee Connor Branson and of course incumbent Centre LG Sextimus Dalton.
  • District 8: Likely Liberty gain (Governor, LG), Tossup (Legislature)
    • The Folsom/McCoy ticket has consolidated support due to Folsom’s popularity and due to fatigue of Gov. Ren after her failed presidential runs.
  • District 12: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
  • District 13: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
  • District 14: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
    • Though the race seemed slightly competitive at the beginning, Gov. Melbourne has proved a savvy campaigner and solidified the race for Liberty.
  • The Capitol: Lean Liberty (Chief Executive), Tossup (Executive Council)
    • Despite the Centre push to win the Chief Executive spot, Celeste Armstrong has proved her worth as a candidate while Jake Langley has been a flop in comparison. However, the race for control of the Council remains a tossup, which also helps Langley a little bit.

We will return to you with more coverage following the closing of the polls.


UPDATE: We can now confirm some preliminary results out of a few districts. In District 1, we can now confirm the victories of Senators Felicia Bass and Manfred Weston, who will return to the Capitol for another term on January 1st. This also means that in the race for control of the Senate, the count is 2 Liberty, 0 Labor, 0 Civic, 0 Centre.

We can also confirm that Governor Felix Warren and Lieutenant Governor Susan Stenhjem of District 2 will be reelected with a Liberty legislature to match. In addition, Senators Vance James and Cason Hampton were easily reelected, bringing the Senate Count to 4 Liberty, 0 Labor, 0 Civic, 0 Centre.

UPDATE 1: We can now confirm the first results out of District 3’s Senate races. Both races are supposed to be competitive. In the race for Seat 1, held by Civic Senator Sadie Myers, here’s what we have with 21 percent of the vote counted:

Leaning Civic – 21%

Sadie Myers (Civ) [i] – 42 percent

Jacob Ellsworth (Lib) – 36 percent

Rocky Washington (Centre) – 22 percent

In the race for Seat 2, held by Civic Senator Patrick Newsom, here are how things stand with 19 percent in:

Tilt Civic – 19%

Patrick Newsom (Civ) [i] – 45 percent

Christopher Delford (Lib) – 43 percent

Cheryl Appleby (Centre) – 12 percent

We also can confirm in District 3 that incumbent Civic Governor Bertram Spellings and Lieutenant Governor Sara Turner have been reelected with a Civic legislature. 

UPDATE 2: We can now call the District 4 Seat 1 Senate race for Antonio Wallace, the current Liberty governor of District 4. This is the first Liberty gain and the first seat to flip of the night. We also call that current Liberty Senator Charlton Harrison will be reelected easily, bringing our Senate total to 6 Liberty, 0 Labor, 0 Civic, 0 Centre.

Liberty gain (Seat 1) – 25% in

Antonio Wallace (Lib) – 58 percent

Katrina Rowland (Lab) [i] – 22 percent

Meredith Boeing (Centre) – 20 percent

Liberty hold (Seat 2) – 24% in

Charlton Harrison (Lib) [i] – 64 percent

Tara Carlson (Lab)  – 19 percent

Walter Gamble (Centre) – 17 percent

We can also confirm that current Chief of Staff Harold Cersisa, a Liberty Party member, will be elected governor along with current Liberty lieutenant governor Aaron Evanston winning reelection. They will be inaugurated alongside a Liberty-held legislature. 

UPDATE 3: We can now call the final results of the District 3 Senate races. At this time, it appears that incumbent Civic Senator Patrick Newsom will win reelection against the odds. However, in a cruel twist of fate for the Civic Party, Civic Senate leader Sadie Myers will not return to the Capitol in January and will head into retirement. Instead, the Liberty Party has broken the Civic hold on District 3 and will send Jacob Ellsworth, District 3’s Senate minority leader, to serve as the District’s junior senator. This now brings the Senate count to 7 Liberty, 1 Civic, 0 Labor, 0 Centre.

Liberty gain (Seat 1) – 99%

Jacob Ellsworth (Lib) – 35 percent

Sadie Myers (Civ) [i] – 34 percent

Rocky Washington (Centre) – 31 percent

Civic hold (Seat 2) – 98%

Patrick Newsom (Civ) [i] – 46 percent

Christopher Delford (Lib) – 45 percent

Cheryl Appleby (Centre) – 9 percent

UPDATE 4: We can now announce the first results out of District 5. We can officially call the governor’s race in District 5 for Liberty nominee Serena Ross. We can also declare that Senators Sophia Delacruz and Amanda Quirius will win reelection by healthy margins. This brings our Senate count to 9 Liberty, 1 Civic, 0 Labor, 0 Centre.

In the race for the lieutenant governor’s seat, incumbent Centre LG Sextimus Dalton appears to be holding on- albeit barely- against Liberty nominee Todd Layton and Labor nominee Connor Branson.

Tossup (LG) – 29%

Sextimus Dalton (Centre) [i] – 34 percent

Todd Layton (Lib) – 33 percent

Connor Branson (Lab) – 33 percent

Liberty hold (Seat 1) – 25% in

Sophia Delacruz (Lib) [i] – 76 percent

Dolores Fenway (Centre) – 14 percent

James Ensign (Lab) – 10 percent

Liberty hold (Seat 2) – 24% in

Amanda Quirius (Lib) [i] – 68 percent

Paul Yates (Lab)  – 16 percent

Randal Fassbender (Centre) – 16 percent

UPDATE 5: We can now report results out of Districts 6 and 7 as well as some further numbers from District 5. We can officially state that in District 6, Senators Raylin Kramer and Quentin Kennedy will return to the Capitol, and in District 7, Senators Calvin Wilkie and Walter Briscoe will also be reelected. These results bring our Senate count to 11 Liberty, 3 Civic, 0 Labor, 0 Centre.

Civic hold (D6 Seat 1) – 21% in

Raylin Kramer (Civ) [i] – 43 percent

Richie Batts (Centre) – 32 percent

Rosa Lockwood (Lib) – 25 percent

Civic hold (D6 Seat 2) – 24% in

Quentin Kennedy (Civ) [i] – 60 percent

Ben Hansen (Lib)  – 28 percent

Edward Sanders (Centre) – 12 percent

Liberty hold (D7 Seat 1) – 25% in

Calvin Wilkie (Lib) [i] – 70 percent

Lanora Hart (Centre) – 17 percent

Venera Basking (Lab) – 13 percent

Liberty hold (D7 Seat 2) – 24% in

Walter Briscoe (Lib) [i] – 61 percent

Plymouth Gander (Lab)  – 20 percent

Orlando Ruiz (Centre) – 19 percent

In the race for lieutenant governor of District 5, Liberty nominee Todd Layton has broken away from the pack.

Lean Liberty (LG) – 79%

Todd Layton (Lib) – 40 percent

Sextimus Dalton (Centre) [i] – 35 percent

Connor Branson (Lab) – 25 percent

UPDATE 6: We can now report numbers out of District 8. We can officially call that Senator Kendal Folsom will be reelected by a wide margin, bringing the Senate count to 12 Liberty, 3 Civic, 0 Labor, 0 Centre. We can also project that outgoing Senator Layla Folsom will become the next governor of District 8, defeating incumbent Felicia Ren. However, Folsom will have to deal with a Legislature that is a majority of Labor members.

Liberty hold (Seat 1) – 12% in

Kendal Folsom (Lib) [i] – 71 percent

Mamie Spears (Lab) – 16 percent

Joni Brewster (Centre) – 15 percent

Lean Labor (Seat 2) – 13% in

Cedric Wallace (Lab) – 37 percent

Flossie Maddox (Centre)  – 33 percent

Martin David (Lib) – 30 percent

Liberty gain (Gov/LG) – 12% in

Layla Folsom/Ethan McCoy (Lib) [i] – 46 percent

Felicia Ren/Serena Cartwright (Lab) – 29 percent

Brady Bell/Starla Attaway (Centre) – 25 percent

We can now call the District 5 LG race for Liberty nominee Todd Layton, who will defeat appointed Centre LG Sextimus Dalton. We can also report that the D5 Legislature will barely remain in the hands of the incumbent Liberty majority.

Liberty gain (LG) – 94%

Todd Layton (Lib) – 42 percent

Sextimus Dalton (Centre) [i] – 34 percent

Connor Branson (Lab) – 21 percent

UPDATE 7: We can now make a call in the race for Senate Seat 2 in District 8 as well as report the first numbers out of Districts 9 and 10. In the race for District 8’s open Senate seat, Labor will make a gain with Lieutenant Governor Cedric Wallace elected. In the race for District 9’s first seat in the Senate, we can also predict a win for current Labor Senator Iris Canstrom. These two Labor wins bring the Senate total to 12 Liberty, 3 Civic, 2 Labor, 0 Centre.

Labor gain (D8 Seat 2) – 57% in

Cedric Wallace (Lab) – 43 percent

Flossie Maddox (Centre)  – 31 percent

Martin David (Lib) – 26 percent

Labor hold (D9 Seat 1) – 9% in

Iris Canstrom (Lab) [i] – 64 percent

Martha Irvine (Lib)  – 30 percent

Quinn Raines (Centre) – 6 percent

Still in contention are D9’s second seat and both of District 10’s seats.

Lean Centre (D9 Seat 2) – 13% in

Clarke Randall (Centre) – 38 percent

Patricia Mann (Lab) [i] – 32 percent

Floris Weaver (Lib) – 30 percent

Lean Labor (D10 Seat 1) – 9% in

Jace Walters (Lab) [i] – 43 percent

Howard Strickland (Lib)  – 38 percent

Camryn Shelby (Centre) – 19 percent

Lean Labor (D10 Seat 2) – 3% in

Lindsey Richards (Lab) – 47 percent

Ginger Freedman (Lib) [i]  – 42 percent

Selma Ashland (Centre) – 11 percent

UPDATE 8: We can now report further calls. In the race for District 9’s second Senate seat, Senator Patricia Mann will be unseated by city mayor Clarke Randall, the Centre nominee. This victory is historic, giving the Centre Party their first senator. We can also call that D10 Senator Jace Walters will return to the Senate in a major coup over challenger Howard Strickland, and we can report that D10 Senate majority leader Lindsey Richards will defeat incumbent Liberty senator Ginger Freedman to join him. The count for the Senate is now 12 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre.

Centre gain (D9 Seat 2) – 73% in

Clarke Randall (Centre) – 45 percent

Patricia Mann (Lab) [i] – 34 percent

Floris Weaver (Lib) – 21 percent

Labor hold (D10 Seat 1) – 91% in

Jace Walters (Lab) [i] – 51 percent

Howard Strickland (Lib)  – 43 percent

Camryn Shelby (Centre) – 6 percent

Labor gain (D10 Seat 2) – 93% in

Lindsey Richards (Lab) – 48 percent

Ginger Freedman (Lib) [i]  – 43 percent

Selma Ashland (Centre) – 9 percent

UPDATE 9: We can now report results from Districts 11 and 12. In the race for District 11’s Senate seats, incumbent Senators Michael Debroff and Edith Delsont will be reelected. In the race for the District 12 seats, Senators Hanley Trent and Lenora Quaker will be reelected after running unopposed. These results bring the Senate count to 16 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre. As such, District 12’s senatorial elections have delivered a Liberty majority in the Senate with Vice President Tarson’s tiebreaker vote.

Liberty hold (D11 Seat 1) – 1% in

Michael Debroff (Lib) [i] – 93 percent

Cy Sherbourne (Lab) – 5 percent

Shel Stanley (Centre) – 2 percent

Liberty hold (D11 Seat 2) – 3% in

Edith Delsont (Lib) [i] – 90 percent

Jerrod Allan (Lab) – 6 percent

Hewie Lamar (Centre) – 4 percent

Liberty hold (D12 Seat 1) – >1% in

Hanley Trent (Lib) [i] – 100 percent

Liberty hold (D12 Seat 2) – >1% in

Lenora Quaker (Lib) [i] – 100 percent

In the districtwide elections of District 12, nothing unexpected has occurred- Governor Lynnette Cortez and Lieutenant Governor Harriet Myers have been reelected with a staunch Liberty majority in the legislature.

UPDATE 10: We can now report the results out of District 13. In the race for D13’s Senate seats, Senator Wendy Oppenheim will return to the Senate alongside Governor Owen Talton, who will replace placeholder Senator Woodrow Thorpe. Both were unopposed. This brings the Senate count to 18 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre.

Liberty hold (D13 Seat 1) – >1% in

Wendy Oppenheim (Lib) [i] – 100 percent

Liberty hold (D13 Seat 2) – >1% in

Owen Talton (Lib) – 100 percent

In the districtwide elections of District 13, Lieutenant Governor Allan Perry will succeed Senator-elect Owen Talton as governor with Callista Abbott winning the lieutenant governorship. In addition, Abbott will be succeeded as secretary of state by Johanna Radclyffe. The legislature will remain in Liberty hands.

UPDATE 11: We can now call the results of the District 14 elections and report the first numbers from District 15. In the race for District 14’s Senate seats, Senators Antonin Thibault and Valère Descoteaux were unopposed and were thus reelected. This puts the Senate count at 20 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre.

Liberty hold (D14 Seat 1) – >1% in

Antonin Thibault (Lib) [i] – 100 percent

Liberty hold (D14 Seat 2) – >1% in

Valère Descoteaux (Lib) – 100 percent

In the districtwide elections of District 14, incumbent Governor Royce Melbourne was easily reelected with Lieutenant Governor Alain Durand and a strong Liberty legislature.

In District 15, we can officially call D15’s second Senate seat for Senator Darien Sanford. This brings the Senate count to 21 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre.

In the race for the district’s first Senate seat, incumbent Liberty senator Jarod Yancy has fallen slightly behind Centre nominee Joseph Garnett.

Tilt Centre (Seat 1) – 10% in

Joseph Garnett (Centre) – 51 percent

Jarod Yancy (Lib) [i] – 49 percent

UPDATE 12: We can now report some results out of the Capitol and announce further results from District 15.

In the race for District 15’s remaining Senate seat, Senator Yancy has tied up the race.

Tossup (D15 Seat 1) – 54% in

Jarod Yancy (Lib) [i] – 50 percent

Joseph Garnett (Centre) – 50 percent

In the race for the Capitol’s Senate seats, we can project that Labor Senator Zena Gates will lose her seat to outgoing Chief Executive Wesley Benson, the Liberty nominee, by an unexpectedly large margin. This brings the Senate count to 22 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 1 Centre.

Liberty hold (Capitol Seat 1) – 39% in

Wesley Benson (Lib)  – 51 percent

Zena Gates (Lab) [i] – 31 percent

Katherine Chapman (Centre) – 18 percent

In the race for the second Capitol seat, Julie Roydon has pulled ahead by a decent margin over current Senator Nikolas Travers but has not ascertained a victory as of yet.

Lean Centre (Capitol Seat 2) – 34% in

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 56 percent

Nikolas Travers (Lib) [i] – 44 percent

We can now project the results of the Capitol’s local elections. In the race for Chief Executive, Celeste Armstrong will succeed her fellow Liberty Party member to become the new CE. In the race for control of the Executive Council, however, the Centre Party will prevail. 

UPDATE 13: We can now make the final calls of the night. In the race for the second D15 Senate seat, Centre nominee Joseph Garnett will defeat incumbent Liberty senator Jarod Yancy, while in the race for the Capitol’s second seat, Centre nominee Julie Roydon will also defeat a Liberty senator, Nikolas Travers. This makes the final count for the Senate out to be 22 Liberty, 4 Labor, 3 Civic, 3 Centre.

Tilt Centre (Seat 1) – 100% in

Joseph Garnett (Centre) – 52 percent

Jarod Yancy (Lib) [i] – 48 percent

Lean Centre (Capitol Seat 2) – 100% in

Julie Roydon (Centre) – 54 percent

Nikolas Travers (Lib) [i] – 46 percent

UPDATE 14: We now have the final results for the House and the Senate and the matching diagrams.

senate-midterm-5The Senate’s new composition will be 22 Liberty senators, 4 Labor senators, 3 Civic senators, and 3 Centre senators.

 

midterm-predictions-house

In the case of the House, the new composition will be 109 Liberty representatives, 45 Centre representatives, 34 Labor representatives, 9 Civic representatives, 2 Conservative representatives, and 1 independent representative.

ANALYSIS:  Tonight was a victory for the opposition without a doubt. However, it must be noted that it didn’t necessarily result in a win for the opposition expected- rather than the Red/Green Coalition succeeding in their expansion into the Senate, the Centre Party managed to pick up its first-ever seats: in fact, it should be noted that they garnered not one, not two, but three seats. This may be the greatest defeat for the Coalition; instead of proving themselves the true opposition, the citizens of Panem chose a different alternative. In other news, the Liberty Party managed to weather a storm that wasn’t looking good for them at the start of the night. Rather than ceding a multitude of vulnerable seats, the party held its own, losing four seats but gaining three, making for a net loss of only one seat. This is due in part to the unexpected win of Jacob Ellsworth in District 3 over Civic Senate leader Sadie Myers, which is nothing short of a political earthquake. Myers wasn’t even predicted to be the more vulnerable of the two senators. Nonetheless, the new Senate freshmen, in alphabetical order, are:

Wesley Benson (Liberty-Capitol)
Jacob Ellsworth (Liberty-D3)
Joseph Garrett (Centre-D15)
Clarke Randall (Centre-D9)
Lindsey Richards (Labor-D10)
Julie Roydon (Centre-Capitol)
Owen Talton (Liberty-D13)
Antonio Wallace (Liberty-D4)
Cedric Wallace (Labor-D8)

In the case of the districtwide elections, Liberty dominated as usual, picking up the District 8 governorship and lieutenant governorship and the District 5 lieutenant governorship. These victories show that Liberty will be expanding their national bench even further as time goes on, limiting other parties. However, Centre and Labor can find some reassurance in the fact that they staunched the bleeding in Districts 5 and 8 as well as the Capitol.

What effect, however, will this election have on the future? Well, the first note on this subject is in regards to the President’s increasingly likely reelection bid. It appears that tonight shows that while Panem citizens are looking for a change on a congressional level, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s because of the administration. In fact, President Mellark should look to note historical precedent in multiple districts in regards to their Senate elections, but also note those that were broken. However, the President should be very wary of some of these results. This midterm resulted in assurances for multiple senators and governors that will be itching to run for president or VP very soon.

 

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