If you ask someone when the next election is, a majority of people will tell you that there’s an election every four years. While that’s true, there’s also the midterms- a typically decisive referendum on the policy of the ruling party. This year, the midterms are shaping up to be the second straight election that suits the Liberty Party, all thanks to the success of the Mellark administration.
However, that doesn’t mean that the Red-Green Coalition, Centre, and Conservative Parties have given up entirely in the face of what could be a landslide defeat. Instead, they intend to provide the largest force of opposition in Panem history- fielding prime candidates for races and pouring money into districts that are supposed to be safe for Liberty officeholders.
The following offices are up for election in the midterms.
- Districtwide offices: Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 13, 14
- All Senate seats
- All House seats
Let’s take a look at some of the highlights:
District One only has Congressional elections this midterm.
In the Senate, Felicity Bass and Manfred Weston are up for reelection. Both are heavily entrenched, and neither are facing any significant opposition. Our prediction: Liberty hold (Senate seats 1 and 2)
The Labor Party and the Centre Party are seeking to capitalize on discomfort with Liberty rule in the typically Liberty-friendly District 2, particularly with the unpopularity of the Taylor administration and the uncertainty of the new Warren administration. In any scenario, it will be an uphill slope for the opposition in a district who has elected a Liberty government since Gale Hawthorne first governed the district. Our prediction: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
In the case of Senators Vance James and Cason Hampton (both Liberty Party members), both are expected to weather the political storm that is brewing in District 2 without any issue. Our prediction: Liberty hold (Senate seats 1 and 2)
District 3 is a top target for Liberty this cycle as they attempt to turn the greenest district in Panem into a Liberty-friendly district.
In the districtwide elections, it’s expected to be a high-profile set of races. However, this doesn’t mean that they will be competitive- Civic holds District 3 heavily, and it’s unlikely that any Civic incumbents will be unseated. In the governor and lieutenant governor’s race, the incumbent ticket of Bertram Spellings and Sara Turner (Civic) will face off against the Liberty ticket of District Senator Kara Jepson and District Representative Hal Rimmer. Both tickets are unopposed in their primaries. In the legislature, Liberty is attempting to make grand strides by running high-profile candidates, but the legislature is undoubtedly remaining in Civic’s hands. Our prediction: Civic hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
In the Senate elections, it’s a fight to the death. Sadie Myers, the senior senator and Civic leader in the Senate, will face off against Senate minority leader Jacob Ellsworth (Liberty) and district representative Rocky Washington (Centre) in a high-stakes election. The Civic National Committee is pouring millions into this race to save one of their remaining seats. The biggest question lies with how much Washington draws from Myers and Ellsworth- depending on which way the voters swing, Washington could easily spoil this race for the Civic Party. In the case of first-term Senator Patrick Newsom, the Liberty Party is also making a major play for this seat with the entry of three-term Representative Christopher Delford who is considered a game-changer in a district that was never considered an option previously for Liberty. Newsom will also face off against Cheryl Appleby, the Centre Party businesswoman. In both races, Labor has elected not to field a nominee and back the nominee of the Civic Party in respect to the coalition agreement previously made. Our predictions: Lean Civic (Seat 1 – Myers), Lean Civic (Seat 2 – Newsom)
In District 4, both Congressional and districtwide elections are to be held.
District 4 as of late has a very partisan lean towards the Liberty Party, though it was only a short time ago that the Labor Party had a strong presence in the coastal district. The party still has a presence, though much diminished. The Labor Party, as such, is attempting to capitalize on nostalgia in order to bring their influence back in District 4. As such, they have nominated district Secretary of State Floyd Phillips and district senator Rickey Humphrey in a strong attempt to unseat the incumbent ticket of Governor Antonio “Tony” Wallace and Lieutenant Governor Aaron Evanston. Centre is expected to nominate a ticket as well, but that ticket is undetermined at this time due to a fierce primary fight. Our predictions: Lean Liberty (Governor, LG), Liberty hold (Legislature), Tossup (Secretary of State)
In the senatorial races, the senior senator, Katrina Rowland of the Labor Party, is a very vulnerable target this election in a highly antagonistic district. Though in years past she has held on due to incumbent-friendly environments, she is being heavily targeted by the Liberty Party (who will nominate Cassidy Albert, a representative from District 4) and the Centre Party (who will nominate Meredith Boeing, another representative) for the seat, with opposition pouring millions into removing her from the seat. Right now, it seems likely that Rowland will lose her seat, but due to the Labor Party’s major push in District 4, it’s quite possible that due to the three-way race Rowland makes it out alive. In the case of Senator Charlton Harrison, it is expected that the junior senator will be reelected against Labor nominee Tara Carlson and Centre nominee Walter Gamble. Our predictions: Tossup between Centre and Liberty (Seat 1 – Rowland), Liberty hold (Seat 2 – Harrison)
District 5 has been a serious point of contention this election, and we aren’t even halfway through the cycle. Both districtwide and Congressional elections will be held.
In the districtwide elections, incumbent Liberty governor Harold Dupont incited rage from his own party with his selection of Centre politician Sextimus Dalton as his lieutenant governor. Dupont is being primaried from within his own party as a result, facing off against alternative Liberty tickets like District Senator Serena Ross/District Representative Todd Layton and district agriculture secretary Kate Jarrett/businessman Walter Quick. Dupont as a result is incredibly vulnerable in his primary. Should Dupont survive, he will face off against Civic nominee Taylor Langston and Centre nominee Kathryn Neville and would face a very tough general election favoring Neville, according to recent polls. However, should either Ross or Jarrett succeed in taking the nomination, the race would be easily in their favor. District 5 has a long tradition of electing their governors and lieutenant governors separately, leading to split tickets at times. As such, Dalton faces a different race than Dupont- Dalton at least has a level of popularity, especially with the Centre Party members in District 5. Since Dupont is refusing to name a candidate to run with, it will be a rough election cycle for Dalton who will inevitably face off against Layton or Quick on the Liberty side, and Labor nominee Connor Branson. Our predictions: PRIMARY: Lean Ross; GENERAL: With Dupont – Lean Centre, With Ross/Jarrett – Liberty hold (Governor), Tossup (LG), Tossup (Legislature)
In the races in the Senate, neither are expected to be competitive. Sens. Sophia Delacruz and Amanda Quirius (both Liberty) are facing token opposition. Our prediction: Both Liberty hold (Seats 1 and 2)
District 6’s only real elections lie with the Senate, as the districtwide elections occur during presidential years. In the case of Seat 1, held by senior Senator Raylin Kramer (Civic), it is expected to be a hard fought race as the Centre Party and Liberty Party are making hard pushes with candidates like Richie Batts and Rosa Lockwood, respectively. In Seat 2 is junior Senator Quentin Kennedy, who is considered enormously popular among District 6 residents and faces token opposition. Our predictions: Likely Civic (Seat 1 – Kramer), Civic hold (Seat 2 – Kennedy)
District 7 only has Congressional elections this year. In the case of Senators Calvin Wilkie and Walter Briscoe, neither are expected to face any real opposition this round. Labor/Civic and Centre are appearing to save their candidates for a push on the governor’s mansion in the next presidential cycle. Our predictions: Liberty holds (Seats 1 and 2)
In District 8, voters will elect districtwide officials and Congressional members.
In the case of the districtwide races, District 8 was spared the opportunity to see yet another rematch of the Felicia Ren vs. Elizabeth Steinbeck race. Steinbeck declined to run again following her appointment as Ambassador to the Council of Nations. Steinbeck famously unseated Ren against the odds seven years ago, only to be defeated by Ren herself four years later. The two then faced off against each other twice more as Ren and Steinbeck both unsuccessfully ran for president. Ren will seek reelection with district senator Serena Cartwright as her running mate to succeed outgoing lieutenant governor Cedric Wallace, who will run for the Senate. Liberty is set to nominate junior Senator Layla Folsom and representative Ethan McCoy in a powerful move to unseat the rivalry and attempt to consolidate Liberty’s power in District 8’s government, while Centre is nominating veteran Brady Bell and businesswoman Starla Attaway. In the legislature, Liberty is attempting to push Labor out as they have been for many years, but Centre is seeking to slip in to gain a plurality. Our predictions: Lean Liberty (Governor and LG), Tossup (Legislature)
The Senators of District 8 have always been noteworthy. For the past two election cycles, the Folsom sisters (Kendal and Layla) have dominated their respective elections. This remains the case of Seat 1, inhabited by Kendal Folsom. However, with Senator Layla Folsom declining to seek reelection to her Senate seat in favor of running for governor, the race for her seat has become a hot mess, with a large Liberty primary threatening the party’s chances of holding the seat in the face of Labor nominee Cedric Wallace and Centre nominee Flossie Maddox. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Seat 1 – Folsom), Tossup (Seat 2 – Open)
Senatorial elections are the only highlights of the election season in District 9, with both seats deemed high targets for the Liberty Party and Centre Party.
In the race for Seat 1, currently held by Senator Iris Canstrom, is seen as a very hard target to topple; even with Canstrom being in a district not recently favoring Labor candidates, she’s very heavily entrenched and very heavily funded. She will likely face Martha Irvine, the speaker of the District 9 House, as the Liberty nominee and businesswoman Quinn Raines, the Centre nominee.
In the race for Seat 2, currently held by Senator Patricia Mann, is not so farfetched of a loss. Mann has made a series of controversial missteps in her first term as senator and is not very popular. As such, the race is seen more as one between Liberty nominee Floris Weaver and Centre nominee Clarke Randall.
In both cases, however, the Conservative Party stands to ruin both races. Though the party is not powerful any longer, the nominee of the party in any race typically garners around three percent, leaving many to wonder how this may spoil the election for Liberty or Centre. Our predictions: Likely Labor (Seat 1 – Canstrom), Tossup/Tilt Centre (Seat 2 – Mann)
Panem’s tenth district will only have Congressional elections this year.
Currently, Seat 1 is gaining the most attention. Held by Jace Walters of the Labor Party, Labor is looking to keep this seat and is spending a ton on this race. However, Liberty has fielded District 10 Attorney General Howard Strickland and Centre has fielded representative Camryn Shelby, both high-profile candidates, in an attempt to knock off Walters.
In the case of Seat 2, Liberty holds the seat with Ginger Freedman, who isn’t considered much at risk, but at the same time isn’t the most popular. Labor has fielded Lindsey Richards, the Senate minority leader, to run against Freedman, while Centre has opted to avoid this race, nominating a token candidate. Our predictions: Tossup (Seat 1 – Walters), Lean Liberty (Seat 2 – Freedman)
District 11 only faces Congressional elections this year.
In the Senate races, Seat 1 is currently held by Liberty senator Michael Debroff and Seat 2 is held by Liberty senator Edith Delsont. Neither are considered competitive. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Seats 1 and 2)
District 12 will elected districtwide offices this year as well as its Congressional members.
In the districtwide races, the Liberty Party has a definite hold on the district political structure. As such, the district’s makeup is Liberty from top to bottom. Governor Lynnette Cortez will be seeking reelection with appointed Lieutenant Governor Harriet Myers. The pair will not face a Red-Green Coalition challenger, but will face former Centre district representative Kiara Henderson and businessman Stan Warner. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
In the Senate races of District 12, neither are expected to be remotely competitive. Seat 1 is held by Senator Hanley Trent, a Liberty member, who also chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee and is considered a potential nominee to become attorney general or a Supreme Court justice should a vacancy occur. In Seat 2 is first-term Senator Lenora Quaker, who is growing in familiarity and popularity. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Seats 1 and 2)
District 13 will elect both districtwide and Congressional offices this year.
In the districtwide races, it is expected that Liberty will hold all available seats. Governor Owen Talton will not seek reelection but rather run for the open Senate seat left by Ronald Brown, the new director of the Office of Management and Budget. Lieutenant Governor Allan Perry will seek the office of governor in order to run for reelection with district secretary of state Callista Abbott as his lieutenant gubernatorial running mate. Johanna Radclyffe will run to succeed Abbott as secretary of state. There is token opposition from the Civic and Centre Parties. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Governor, LG, Legislature)
In the races for the Senate, Seat 1 is held by Wendy Oppenheim and is likely to remain in her hands. Seat 2 is currently held by Woodrow Thorpe, who was nominated by Governor Talton to serve in outgoing Senator Ronald Brown’s place following the latter’s nomination to the OMB. Governor Talton will likely be the Liberty nominee for the seat, facing a primary against a couple district representatives and no-namers. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Seats 1 and 2)
District 14 is a Liberty-dominated district that will elect districtwide and Congressional offices this election. Labor and Centre are seeking to make a broad impact here as they attempt to turn this Liberty stronghold into a tossup district.
In the districtwide elections, newly-inaugurated Governor Royce Melbourne will run for his first full term as governor with newly-appointed Lieutenant Governor Alain Durand. Melbourne became governor following the confirmation of previous Governor Rosalie Descoteaux to President Mellark’s cabinet as Secretary of the Treasury. The Liberty ticket will face the Labor ticket of House minority leader Gérard Fortier and district senator Fleurette Gardinier and the Centre ticket of businessman Léonide Michaud and district representative Lucette André. While the race will be high-profile, it’s expected to fall in Liberty’s favor once again. Our predictions: Likely Liberty (Governor and LG), Liberty hold (Legislature)
In the Senate elections, both seats are currently held by Liberty senators. In the case of Seat 1, that is Antonin Thibault. Thibault chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and is considered a lock for reelection. With Seat 2 comes Valère Descoteaux, the brother of Secretary Descoteaux. The Descoteaux family’s popularity in District 14 is not in question, and neither is the senator’s seat. Our predictions: Liberty hold (Seats 1 and 2)
District 15 will only elect Congressional candidates.
In District 15, the former Capitol, Liberty holds both Senate seats. In Seat 1 is Jarod Yancy, who will face Centre nominee Joseph Garnett. Though the race will be slightly competitive, Yancy is the heavy favorite. In Seat 2 is Darien Sanford, who will face Centre nominee Francis Roscoe. Sanford is expected to easily crush Roscoe. Our predictions: Likely Liberty (Seat 1 – Yancy), Liberty hold (Seat 2 – Sanford)
The Capitol will also hold elections this season for both the Executive Council and its Congressional seats.
In the race for the Executive Council, it is expected that Liberty and Centre will enter a fierce race for control. The Liberty slate of candidates is headed by current councilmember Dave Fletcher, who is seeking to replace current President pro tempore Celeste Armstrong. Centre’s candidate slate is led by Nora Paulson, another councilmember. Celeste Armstrong will run to succeed outgoing Chief Executive Benson Wesley and will face Centre nominee Jake Langley, an outgoing councilmember, in the general election. Our predictions: Tossup (Executive Council and Chief Executive)
In the race for Senate seats, both incumbents will be hotly challenged. For Senate Seat 1, incumbent Labor senator Zena Gates is at the top of Liberty and Centre’s lists to gain a seat this November. Liberty will nominate Chief Executive Benson Wesley while Centre will nominate Katherine Chapman. Wesley is considered the slight favorite at the moment. For Seat 2, incumbent Liberty senator Nikolas Travers will face Centre nominee Julie Roydon and Civic nominee James Tailor. Travers, as we see it, will likely skim by as usual. Our predictions: Lean Liberty (Seat 1 – Gates), Lean Liberty (Seat 2 – Travers)