ELECTION DAY: Liberty set for sweep of epic proportions amid Conservative scandals

Amid the impeachment of President Rick Canth (Conservative Party-D7), the indictment of Representative Jackson Canth (Conservative-D2), and the document scandals of presidential contender Robert F. Maxwell and vice presidential contender Secretary Lynn Germaine, the Liberty Party (led by Senator Peeta Mellark and Governor Rebecca Tarson) is set to make massive gains in all areas of government.

In addition to these expected gains, the world will be watching to see if the Centre Party emerges as a viable alternative, if the Labor and Civic Parties can finally present themselves as the true opposition in Panem, and if the Conservative Party will be relegated to a crossbench party.


Here are our predictions for the executive elections this year.


Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Tossup (Labor/Liberty/Steinbeck-Crystal)

District 2: 10 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

District 3: 8 electoral votes – Safe Civic

District 4: 12 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

District 5: 3 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

District 6: 5 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

District 7: 7 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Likely Steinbeck-Crystal

District 9: 3 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

District 12: 5 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Likely Liberty

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Safe Liberty

Overall Safe/Likely:

Mellark – 105, Tarson – 105 (Liberty)

Steinbeck – 10, Crystal – 10 (Independent)

Paylor – 8, Trenton – 8 (Civic)

Ren – 0, Kindred – 0 (Labor)

Maxwell – 0, Germaine – 0 (Independent)

Canth – 0, Canth – 0 (Conservative)

TOSSUP (PRESIDENT) –11

TOSSUP (VP) – 11

LEANS (PRESIDENT) – 0

LEANS (VP) – 0


In the gubernatorial elections, we predict the following:


District 1: Governor Thomas Stemp faces a tough election against Liberty nominee Zane Tempore.

District 6: Governor Festus Ashland is expected to win, while his Lt. Governor, Belinda Copley, is expected to be ousted by his running mate Reyna Fults.

District 7: Governor Amy Oaksmith and Lt. Governor Mason Wallace are expected to win by large margins.

District 9: Governor Trenton Escavel and Lt. Governor Max Welch face token opposition and should be reelected easily.

District 10: Governor Xavier Hansen, now a Liberty Party member, faces off against Labor nominee Freida Carole in a closer-than-expected race. Their running mates, Lt. Governor Maci Ehrlich and Caroline Jacobsen, also are engaging in a fierce battle.

District 11: Governor Kaitlyn Jones, a Conservative, faces serious opposition in former Governor Vance Fletcher, from Liberty, who is running to reclaim his old office, and former Lt. Governor Tanner Qualiski, the previous Civic nominee. Conservative Lt. Governor Carl Parsons faces off in a tough race against Liberty nominee Wesley North and Civic nominee David Orson.


In the Congressional elections, we predict the following:

House of Representatives

The composition we expect is 115 seats for the Liberty Party, 36 seats for the Centre Party (making them the official opposition), 34 seats for the Labor Party, 9 seats for the Civic Party, 5 seats for the Conservative Party (driving them to the crossbench), and 1 seat for an independent representative that will caucus with the Liberty Party.


Here’s an overview of the main events of this election cycle.

  • President Rick Canth became the first male president of Panem upon his inauguration.
  • President Canth’s win in the House of Representatives was found to have been fraudulent by federal investigators, who then indicted two top aides to the President but found the President to be innocent of any wrongdoing.
  • The Liberty Party reached its lowest electoral showing in history in the midterm elections and had to form a national unity coalition to ensure the functioning of government.
  • The Electoral Reform Act was signed into law by President Canth, ensuring that should no one reach a majority in the Electoral College, a second round featuring the top two candidates would be held.
  • Former President Katniss Everdeen resigns from her post as Secretary-General of the Council of Nations and returns to Panem. She then later assumed the chairmanship of the Liberty National Committee.
  • The Archibald Center, a major financial center in District 4, was attacked, killing over 100,000 people. The Oceanian Empire, a previously unknown terrorist organization, took credit for the attack.
  • President Canth faced a fierce primary challenge from businessman Robert F. Maxwell, who now faces him in the general election as an independent candidate.
  • Former District 6 Attorney General Reyna Fults was pardoned from all crimes committed past and present by President Canth. Fults is now the Lt. Governor nominee for the Liberty Party in District 6.
  • A tough primary season for the Liberty Party results in the nomination of Senator and former First Gentleman Peeta Mellark for president and Governor of District 12 Rebecca Tarson for vice president.
  • Six tickets competed for political dominance in three televised debates. For the first time, two of these tickets were independent tickets.
  • A document dump from an international source revealed ethical wrongdoings by the Maxwell/Germaine ticket.
  • Later that week, the president’s office was hit by the same intruder, who revealed that the President and his staff had engaged in a pay-for-play scheme along with an electoral fraud cover-up.
  • The President’s staff now face charges for their actions, as well as Representative Jackson Canth, the Conservative VP nominee, for conspiring to obstruct justice and commit electoral fraud.
  • The President himself is now being impeached for his actions but refuses to withdraw or resign.

UPDATE: We have our first results of the night.

In the gubernatorial races, we can predict the following:

  • D6: Governor Festus Ashland will achieve a landslide victory over his opponents. Former D6 AG Reyna Fults will also fly to a victory by a large margin.
  • D7: Governor Amy Oaksmith and Lt. Governor Mason Wallace have both been reelected.
  • D9: Governor Trenton Escavel and Lt. Governor Max Welch have both been reelected.
  • D10: Though this race was expected to be competitive, it appears that Governor Xavier Hansen and Lt. Governor Maci Ehrlich were not closely enough linked to the Conservative Party to be taken down in the anti-Conservative wave. They will both be reelected.
  • D11: While the governor’s race is still too close to call, Conservative Lt. Governor Carl Parsons will be replaced by Liberty nominee Wesley North in January.

We are not ready to project the House yet.


UPDATE 2: We can now project further gubernatorial races.

  • D1: Governor Thomas Stemp and Lt. Governor Anika Pham finally falls to Liberty nominees Zane Tempore and Laila Freedman
  • D11: Governor Kaitlyn Jones, a Conservative, is wiped away by former Governor Vance Fletcher, who reclaims the office after four years. Civic nominee Tanner Qualiski was expected to be competitive, but dwindled before election day.

In the race for control of the House of Representatives, we can now predict that the Liberty Party will easily form a majority government in the House of Representatives.

We can now begin our coverage of the presidential and VP elections.


Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Too close to call (32% Liberty, 31% Steinbeck/Crystal, 27% Labor, 10% Other)

District 2: 10 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 55%.

District 3: 8 electoral votes – Paylor/Trenton carries with 56%.

District 4: 12 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 43%.

District 5: 3 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 46%.

District 6: 5 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 57%.

District 7: 7 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 9: 3 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 12: 5 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Too early to call.

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Too early to call.

Current EV tallies:

Peeta Mellark/Rebecca Tarson (Liberty) – 30 EVs

Cecelia Paylor/Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 8 EVs

Richard “Rick” Canth/Jackson Canth (Conservative) – 0 EVs

Felicia Ren/Joan Kindred (Labor) – 0 EVs

Elizabeth Steinbeck/Pauline Crystal (Independent) – 0 EVs

Robert F. Maxwell/Lynn Germaine (Independent) – 0 EVs


UPDATE 3: We can now call more districts in the executive elections.

Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Too close to call (34% Steinbeck/Crystal, 29% Labor, 27% Liberty, 10% Other)

 

District 7: 7 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 77%.

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Steinbeck/Crystal carries with 40%.

District 9: 3 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 47%.

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 59%

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 12: 5 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Too early to call.

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Too early to call.

Current EV tallies:

Peeta Mellark/Rebecca Tarson (Liberty) – 48 EVs

Elizabeth Steinbeck/Pauline Crystal (Independent) – 10 EVs

Cecelia Paylor/Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 8 EVs

Richard “Rick” Canth/Jackson Canth (Conservative) – 0 EVs

Felicia Ren/Joan Kindred (Labor) – 0 EVs

Robert F. Maxwell/Lynn Germaine (Independent) – 0 EVs


UPDATE 4: We can now call more districts in the executive elections.

Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Too close to call (30% Steinbeck/Crystal, 30% Labor, 30% Liberty, 10% Other)

 

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 39%.

District 12: 5 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 95%.

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Too early to call.

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Too early to call.

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 78%.

Current EV tallies:

Peeta Mellark/Rebecca Tarson (Liberty) – 64 EVs

Elizabeth Steinbeck/Pauline Crystal (Independent) – 10 EVs

Cecelia Paylor/Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 8 EVs

Richard “Rick” Canth/Jackson Canth (Conservative) – 0 EVs

Felicia Ren/Joan Kindred (Labor) – 0 EVs

Robert F. Maxwell/Lynn Germaine (Independent) – 0 EVs


UPDATE 4: We can now make two major projections. We can now project that Senator Peeta Mellark (Liberty Party-District 12), the former First Gentleman of Panem and war hero, will be elected the fourth President of the Republic of Panem. We can also project that Governor Rebecca Tarson (Liberty Party-District 12), the running mate of President-elect Mellark, will elected the fifth Vice President of the Republic of Panem. 

Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 35% to Labor’s 34% and Steinbeck/Crystal’s 27%.

 

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 83%.

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 67%.

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 56%.

Current EV tallies:

Peeta Mellark/Rebecca Tarson (Liberty) – 118 EVs

Elizabeth Steinbeck/Pauline Crystal (Independent) – 10 EVs

Cecelia Paylor/Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 8 EVs

Richard “Rick” Canth/Jackson Canth (Conservative) – 0 EVs

Felicia Ren/Joan Kindred (Labor) – 0 EVs

Robert F. Maxwell/Lynn Germaine (Independent) – 0 EVs


UPDATE 5: Here are our final executive election results.

Overall amount of electoral votes: 136 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 69 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 35% to Labor’s 34% and Steinbeck/Crystal’s 27%.

District 2: 10 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 55%.

District 3: 8 electoral votes – Paylor/Trenton carries with 56%.

District 4: 12 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 43%.

District 5: 3 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 46%.

District 6: 5 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 57%.

District 7: 7 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 77%.

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Steinbeck/Crystal carries with 40%.

District 9: 3 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 47%.

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 59%

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 39%.

District 12: 5 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 95%.

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 83%.

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 67%.

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 56%.

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Mellark/Tarson carries with 78%.

Final EV tallies:

Peeta Mellark/Rebecca Tarson (Liberty) – 118 EVs

Elizabeth Steinbeck/Pauline Crystal (Independent) – 10 EVs

Cecelia Paylor/Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 8 EVs

Richard “Rick” Canth/Jackson Canth (Conservative) – 0 EVs

Felicia Ren/Joan Kindred (Labor) – 0 EVs

Robert F. Maxwell/Lynn Germaine (Independent) – 0 EVs

Final popular vote tally (President):

Peeta Mellark (Liberty) – 64 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Independent) – 22 percent

Felicia Ren (Labor) – 8 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 4 percent

Robert F. Maxwell (Independent) -1 percent

Richard “Rick” Canth (Conservative) – >1 percent

Final popular vote tally (Vice President):

Rebecca Tarson (Liberty) – 62 percent

Pauline Crystal (Independent) – 25 percent

Joan Kindred (Labor) – 7 percent

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 5 percent

Lynn Germaine (Independent) -1 percent

Jackson Canth (Conservative) – >1 percent

ANALYSIS: What a crushing defeat for the Conservative Party tonight! President Canth will not return to the Capitol and may, in turn, end up in a prison cell. His fellow Conservative officeholders were similarly decimated by the Liberty Party this election with gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial wins for Liberty in Districts 6 and 11. The Liberty ticket scored a record 118 electoral votes this election, one that tops the previous record of 62 electoral votes by President Katniss Everdeen, who will now serve as First Lady of Panem.

Though tonight wasn’t a technical win for Governor Elizabeth Steinbeck and her running mate, Pauline Crystal, it shows that the former has-been has made an impact on Panem’s political arena. This won’t be the last of her. Governor Felicia Ren again falls short in a bid to win the presidency, as does former President and Secretary Cecelia Paylor. Robert F. Maxwell and Lynn Germaine now face a startling reality: they are no longer a force in Panem politics, and they also face an increasingly likely investigation.


UPDATE 6: The President gave a concession speech:

“People of Panem, I thank you for four years of serving as your chief executive and commander-in-chief. It has been a true honor, and one that I will not forget. I thank my wife, Autumn Canth, for her support, and all those who voted for me. Thank you for your loyal support. I have called President-elect Mellark to offer him my congratulations and promised him any help necessary for a smooth transition.”

Governor Felicia Ren also gave her concession speech from her home in District 8:

“It’s been an honor to serve yet again as the Labor Party nominee for president of Panem. We did not win, but the voters certainly did. President-elect Mellark has my full support, and I have offered him such when I called him earlier today. As for me, I plan to return to being the governor of District 8 and serving my district.”

Secretary Cecelia Paylor gave her concession speech in District 8 as well.

“Though this is the end of the election, this is not the end of our cause. I have offered President-elect Mellark my support and my friendship. He is a good man and will be a good president of Panem. While this isn’t the end of the line for our cause, this is my final run for president. It’s time for our party to experience new leadership. I hereby step aside as party chair as soon as a suitable replacement can be found.”

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell gave his concession speech from District 4:

“I’ve called President-elect Mellark and congratulated him on a well-fought election. It disappoints me that I’m not in his shoes, but I can trust that he will be a fair and balanced leader, which is exactly what I was hoping for in our next president.”

Former Governor Elizabeth Steinbeck was the last to give her concession speech, also in District 8:

“While I’m not heading to the Capitol, this election was proof that the citizens of Panem are making their government listen. For the first time, a citizen’s candidate fought for her right to be on a ballot, to compete on a debate stage, and look where it put us: in second place. That’s huge. I’ve offered President-elect Mellark my support, and I congratulate him wholly. However, we have a movement now. If our government is out of line, we can remind them of just who holds the power in this country!”

And the new President-elect, Peeta Mellark, and the Vice President-elect, Rebecca Tarson, said the following at their victory rally in District 12:

“Panem, it is morning in Panem again! Thanks to you, we have not only won this election, but we have won massive landslides across the board. In our governor and lieutenant governor elections, we have elected two new governors and three new lieutenant governors! In our race for control of district legislatures, we have won control of three district legislatures this election. In the House, we revived our majority by a large margin. In the Senate, we maintained our supermajority. And of course, you elected us to the highest posts in the land by the largest margins in history. This is truly a historic election.

With this historic election, you bring back peace. No longer will we appease the threat known as the Oceanian Empire. No longer will innocent people die in our country because we won’t face the threat.

No longer will our economy suffer from crippling regulations on businesses, and no longer will our citizens be forced to bear the brunt of this recession. We will reinstate the Everdeen tax cuts on day one.

No longer will Panem’s citizens be forced to accept a government of corruption, one that openly accepts pay-for-play schemes and electoral fraud. We will crack down on that on day one.

We said during our campaign that it’s time to restore Panem’s greatness. With this mandate, we will take that to task. Thank you Panem, and God bless!”

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