PRIMARIES PART FIVE: Primaries held for Conservatives in D1, D2, D5, D9, D10, D11

Welcome back to primary night! This is our second to last primary night with six contests being held today in Districts 1, 2, 5, 9, 10, and 11. The remaining contests in the Capitol and Districts 4, 8, 13, and 15 will be held next Tuesday, finishing off the nomination process.


Let’s take a look at our district delegate graph.

Conservative Delegate Chart

Tonight’s contest will provide 1,800 delegates, a much larger amount than that of the last round. This night could lead to the nomination of Mr. Robert F. Maxwell, the President’s primary challenger, or it could even put the President back in the game if things continue to go smoothly for him.

In the weeks since the last primaries, President Canth and his brother (and presumptive running mate if he wins the nomination) have fired their campaign staff from top to bottom, seeking a large change in a primary that is clearly not going their way. However, since the change, public polling has reflected a more positive turn for the President and his brother, making the primaries today competitive.


Let’s review the previous results.

District 3: Maxwell, Germaine

District 6: Maxwell, Germaine

District 7: Canth, Canth

District 12: Maxwell, Germaine

District 14: Maxwell, Germaine


Delegate counts (2,251 to nominate):

President: Maxwell 950, Canth 250

Vice President: Germaine 950, Canth 250


Our predictions for tonight:

District 1: Tossup on both sides.

District 2: Safe for both Canths.

District 5: Lean for Maxwell/Germaine.

District 9: Tossup (president), lean Germaine (VP)

District 10: Tossup for both sides.

District 11: Tossup for both sides.


UPDATE: We can report numbers out of District 2 now. The second district’s presidential primary is projected to be won by President Rick Canth. This brings the delegate count to Maxwell 950, Canth 550.

1% in – Canth wins – PRESIDENT – D2

Pres. Rick Canth – 71 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 29 percent

We can also call the VP primary for Representative Jackson Canth, a win in his home district. This brings the delegate count to Germaine 950, Canth 550.

1% in – Canth wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D2

Rep. Jackson Canth– 83 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 17 percent

UPDATE 2: We can now report numbers out of District 1. No calls can be made at this time.

1% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D1

Pres. Rick Canth – 51 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 49 percent

1% in – Tossup – VICE PRESIDENT – D1

Sec. Lynn Germaine– 52 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 48 percent

UPDATE 3: We can now report numbers out of District 9. No calls can be made.

1% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D9

Pres. Rick Canth – 50 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 50 percent

1% in – Germaine leads – VICE PRESIDENT – D9

Sec. Lynn Germaine– 55 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 45 percent

UPDATE 4: We can now report further numbers out of District 1.

15% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D1

Pres. Rick Canth – 52 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 48 percent

20% in – Tossup – VICE PRESIDENT – D1

Rep. Jackson Canth – 52 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 48 percent

UPDATE 5: We can now report further numbers out of District 1.

55% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D1

Pres. Rick Canth – 51 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 49 percent

57% in – Canth leads – VICE PRESIDENT – D1

Rep. Jackson Canth – 54 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 46 percent

UPDATE 6: We can now report further numbers out of District 1.

75% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D1

Pres. Rick Canth – 52 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 48 percent

We can now call the vice presidential primary in D1 for Representative Jackson Canth. This brings the delegate count to Germaine 950, Canth 900.

81% in – Canth wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D1

Rep. Jackson Canth – 56 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 44 percent

UPDATE 7: We can now report numbers out of District 9. We can now call the presidential primary for Mr. Robert F. Maxwell. This brings the delegate count to Maxwell 1,150, Canth 550.

45% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT – D9

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 54 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 46 percent

We can also call the vice presidential primary for Secretary Lynn Germaine. This brings the delegate count to Germaine 1,150, Canth 900.

51% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D9

Sec. Lynn Germaine– 55 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 45 percent

UPDATE 8: We can now report numbers out of District 5. We can now call the presidential primary for Mr. Robert F. Maxwell. This brings the delegate count to Maxwell 1,300, Canth 550.

1% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT – D5

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 57 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 43 percent

We can also now call the VP primary for Secretary Lynn Germaine. This brings the delegate count to Germaine 1,300, Canth 900.

1% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D5

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 59 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 41 percent

UPDATE 9: We can now report further numbers out of District 1. We still cannot call this race and it will likely go to a recount.

95% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D1

Pres. Rick Canth – 50 percent (+550 votes)

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 50 percent

UPDATE 10: We can now report further numbers out of District 1.

99% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D1

Pres. Rick Canth – 50 percent (+97 votes)

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 50 percent

UPDATE 11: We can now report numbers out of District 10.

1% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D10

Pres. Rick Canth – 51 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 49 percent

1% in – Tossup – VICE PRESIDENT – D10

Rep. Jackson Canth – 51 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 49 percent

UPDATE 12: We can now report numbers out of District 11.

1% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D11

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 52 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 48 percent

1% in – Tossup – VICE PRESIDENT – D11

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 51 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 49 percent

UPDATE 13: We can now report further numbers out of District 10.

19% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D10

Pres. Rick Canth – 51 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 49 percent

21% in – Tossup – VICE PRESIDENT – D10

Rep. Jackson Canth – 51 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 49 percent

UPDATE 14: We can now report further numbers out of District 11.

1% in – Maxwell leads – PRESIDENT – D11

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 53 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 47 percent

1% in – Tossup – VICE PRESIDENT – D11

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 52 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 48 percent

UPDATE 15: We can now report further numbers out of District 10.

59% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D10

Pres. Rick Canth – 50 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 50 percent

63% in – Tossup – VICE PRESIDENT – D10

Rep. Jackson Canth – 51 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 49 percent

UPDATE 16: We can now report further numbers out of District 11. We can now call D11’s presidential primary for Mr. Robert F. Maxwell. This brings the delegate count to Maxwell 1,650, Canth 550.

79% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT – D11

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 54 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 46 percent

We can also call the VP primary for D11 for Secretary Lynn Germaine. This brings the delegate count to Germaine 1,650, Canth 900.

81% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D11

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 54 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 46 percent

UPDATE 17: We can now report further numbers out of District 10.

78% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D10

Pres. Rick Canth – 51 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 49 percent

84% in – Canth leads – VICE PRESIDENT – D10

Rep. Jackson Canth – 53 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 47 percent

UPDATE 18: We can now report further numbers out of District 10. We can now call the presidential primary of District 10 for President Rick Canth. This brings the delegate count to Maxwell 1,650, Canth 900.

98% in – Canth wins – PRESIDENT – D10

Pres. Rick Canth – 52 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 48 percent

We can also call the vice presidential primary of District 10 for Representative Jackson Canth. This brings the delegate count to Germaine 1,650, Canth 1,250.

99% in – Canth wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D10

Rep. Jackson Canth – 53 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 47 percent

UPDATE 19: We can now report final numbers out of District 1. Despite that it will likely go to a recount, we call this presidential primary for President Rick Canth. For now, the delegate count now is Maxwell 1,650, Canth 1,250.

100% in – Canth wins – PRESIDENT – D1

Pres. Rick Canth – 50 percent (+147 votes)

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 50 percent

We anticipate that this will head to a recount.

UPDATE 20: We can now report final numbers out of all districts. 

100% in – Canth wins – PRESIDENT – D1

Pres. Rick Canth – 50 percent (+147 votes)

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 50 percent

100% in – Canth wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D1

Rep. Jackson Canth – 56 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 44 percent

100% in – Canth wins – PRESIDENT – D2

Pres. Rick Canth – 73 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 27 percent

100% in – Canth wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D2

Rep. Jackson Canth– 87 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 13 percent

100% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT – D5

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 58 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 42 percent

100% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D5

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 60 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 40 percent

100% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT – D9

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 53 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 47 percent

100% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D9

Sec. Lynn Germaine– 55 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 45 percent

100% in – Canth wins – PRESIDENT – D10

Pres. Rick Canth – 52 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 48 percent

100% in – Canth wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D10

Rep. Jackson Canth – 53 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 47 percent

100% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT – D11

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 56 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 44 percent

100% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D11

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 53 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 47 percent

ANALYSIS: The Canths have made a comeback today by winning delegate-rich Districts 1, 2, and 10. They still need exactly 1,001 delegates to win their nominations, and the next set of primaries provide exactly 1,250 delegates. In order to win, they would need the delegates from the Capitol and Districts 8, 13, and 15 along with at least 251 unbound delegates at the convention. Otherwise, they will be forced to duke out the battle on the floor of the convention. It should be increasingly clear to the Canths that the time for a concession speech is drawing near, considering all it takes for Maxwell and Germaine to win this nomination is 550 delegates. They are already destined to win District 4, their home district which holds 450 delegates, and from there, all they need to do is win one further primary or alternatively gain just 100 unbound delegates.

UPDATE 21: President Canth issued the following statement:

“I am greatly appreciative of the support that I received today. It is proof that this campaign is not yet finished. I will win this nomination and we will return the Conservatives to the Capitol once more!”

Mr. Maxwell issued the following statement:

“While I congratulate the President on his swift electoral recovery, I would like to remind him that he is virtually assured a loss overall. While I plan to win across the board next Tuesday, I’m certain I’ll win District 4, and after that, I’m sure that I’ll be able to get 100 delegates. It’s time for the President to withdraw for the party and for the country.”

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