PRIMARIES PART FOUR: Final Liberty primaries to be held in Districts 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 11, and 12

Tonight is the final primary contest night for the Liberty Party primaries! If all goes according to plan, the Liberty Party nominees for President and Vice President of Panem will be determined. The key number to hit is 2,251- that’s the amount of delegates needed to win the primary. If no one hits 2,251 tonight, there are also 200 unbound delegates that could save a campaign. (In the event that there is a 2,250 to 2,250 tie, the rule is that the chairman of the party will act as the deciding delegate on the nomination.) If not that, then it’s up to the party to determine how the nominee will be determined.


Let’s return to our district delegate chart.

Liberty Primary Delegate chart

As you can see, today’s primaries are the largest of the season. Tonight a total of 2,050 delegates will be distributed, which is nearly half of the total delegates available. Let’s visit our candidate delegate chart.

Liberty Party Candidate Delegates

As previously mentioned, nearly a half of the delegates will be awarded tonight. Outside of that, you can easily tell that Governor Oaksmith leads the delegate race with 750 delegates, which shows up here as quite a large chunk.


Let’s see the VP candidate chart.

Liberty VP Candidate Delegates

Once again, nearly half are yet to be decided. Of note is that Tarson and Madison both control large chunks of the graph.


Let’s revisit the past primary races.

Capitol: Wilson, Madison (100 delegates)

District 1: Mellark, West (300 delegates)

District 3: Wilson, Madison (150 delegates)

District 6: Oaksmith, West (200 delegates)

District 7: Oaksmith, Madison (400 delegates)

District 9: Oaksmith, Escavel (150 delegates)

District 13: Oswald, Tarson (450 delegates)

District 14: Descoteaux, Tarson (350 delegates)

District 15: Mellark, Madison (150 delegates)

These results, along with the release of Governor Trenton Escavel’s 150 delegates to Governor Rebecca Tarson, brings the delegate counts to:

President: Oaksmith 750, Mellark 450, Oswald 450, Descoteaux 350, Wilson 250.

Vice President: Tarson 950, Madison 800, West 500.


Our predictions for today:

District 2: Tossup on both sides.

District 4: Safe Wilson and Madison.

District 5: Lean Wilson and Tossup for VP.

District 8: Likely Oaksmith and Lean Tarson.

District 10: Tossup between Mellark and Oaksmith, Safe Tarson

District 11: Lean Mellark, Safe Tarson

District 12: Safe Mellark and Tarson


We will update you whenever we receive numbers out of the first district to report.

UPDATE: We now officially have numbers out of District 12. We can call the presidential primary here for Senator Peeta Mellark, a huge win in his home district. This brings the delegate count to Mellark 800, Oaksmith 750, Oswald 450, Descoteaux 350, Wilson 250.

1% in – Mellark wins – PRESIDENT – D12

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 62 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux– 14 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 12 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 7 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 5 percent

We can also call the vice presidential primary here for Governor Rebecca Tarson, an expected but huge win. This brings the delegate count to Tarson 1,300, Madison 800, West 500.

1% in – Tarson wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D12

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 93 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 5 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 2 percent

UPDATE 2: We can now bring you numbers out of District 10.  We cannot call the presidential race at this time.

1% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D10

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 34 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith– 34 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 12 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 11 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 9 percent

We however can call the VP primary for Governor Rebecca Tarson, her second win of the night. This brings the delegate count to Tarson 1,400, Madison 800, West 500.

1% in – Tarson wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D10

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 70 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 17 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 13 percent

UPDATE 3: We can now bring you numbers out of District 11. We can now call the presidential primary for D11 for Senator Peeta Mellark. This is his second win of the night. This brings the delegate count to Mellark 1,000, Oaksmith 750, Oswald 450, Descoteaux 350, Wilson 250.

1% in – Mellark wins – PRESIDENT – D11

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 42 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith– 19 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 17 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 12 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 10 percent

We can now also call the D11 VP primary for Governor Rebecca Tarson. This is her third consecutive win tonight, three-for-three. This brings the delegate count to Tarson 1,600, Madison 800, West 500.

1% in – Tarson wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D11

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 74 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 14 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 9 percent

UPDATE 4: We can now report numbers out of District 4. In the largest contest by delegate count, we can now make calls on both contests. We project that Vice President Dale Wilson will carry District 4 in the presidential contest. This brings the delegate count to Mellark 1,000, Oaksmith 750, Wilson 750, Oswald 450, Descoteaux 350.

1% in – Wilson wins – PRESIDENT – D4

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson– 59 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark– 12 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 11 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 11 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 7 percent

We also project that Secretary Jonathan Madison will carry his home district of District 4’s vice presidential primary. This brings the delegate count to Tarson 1,600, Madison 1,300, West 500.

1% in – Madison wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D4

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 73 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 14 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 13 percent

UPDATE 5: We can now bring you numbers from District 8. We can now call the D8 presidential primary for Governor Amy Oaksmith. This brings the delegate count to Mellark 1,000, Oaksmith 1,000, Wilson 750, Oswald 450, Descoteaux 350.

1% in – Oaksmith wins – PRESIDENT – D8

Gov. Amy Oaksmith– 40 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark– 22 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux– 15 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 13 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 9 percent

1% in – Tarson leads – VICE PRESIDENT – D8

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 39 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 33 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 28 percent

UPDATE 6: We now have further numbers from District 8. We can now call the vice presidential primary for D8 for Governor Rebecca Tarson. This is her fourth win of the night. This brings the delegate count to Tarson 1,850, Madison 1,300, West 500.

43% in – Tarson wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D8

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 43 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 31 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 26 percent

UPDATE 7: We now have further numbers from District 10’s presidential primary. We can now project that Senator Peeta Mellark will carry the D10 presidential primary. This brings the delegate count to Mellark 1,100, Oaksmith 1,000, Wilson 750, Oswald 450, Descoteaux 350.

71% in – Mellark wins – PRESIDENT – D10

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 38 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith– 33 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 11 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 10 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 8 percent

UPDATE 8: We now have numbers out of District 5. We can now call the presidential primary of D5 for Vice President Dale Wilson. This brings the delegate count to Mellark 1,100, Oaksmith 1,000, Wilson 950, Oswald 450, Descoteaux 350.

1% in – Wilson wins – PRESIDENT – D5

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson– 38 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 17 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 16 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald  – 15 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 14 percent

1% in – Tarson leads – VICE PRESIDENT – D5

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 36 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 33 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 31 percent

UPDATE 9: We now have further numbers from District 5’s VP primary. We can now call the vice presidential primary of District 5 for Governor Rebecca Tarson, her fifth win of the night. This brings the delegate count to Tarson 2,050, Madison 1,300, West 500.

49% in – Tarson wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D5

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 46 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 31 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 23 percent

UPDATE 10: We now have numbers out of District 2, which is considered crucial for all candidates. No calls can be made at this time.

1% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT – D2

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 21 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 20 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 20 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald  – 20 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 19 percent

1% in – Tossup – VICE PRESIDENT – D2

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 34 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 33 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 33 percent

UPDATE 11: We now have further numbers out of District 2.

39% in – Mellark leads – PRESIDENT – D2

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 26 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 23 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 20 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald  – 16 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 15 percent

31% in – West leads – VICE PRESIDENT – D2

Sen. Alexandra West – 40 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 35 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 26 percent

UPDATE 12: We now have further numbers out of District 2. We can now call the presidential primary for Senator Peeta Mellark. This brings the delegate count to Mellark 1,550, Oaksmith 1,000, Wilson 950, Oswald 450, Descoteaux 350.

89% in – Mellark wins – PRESIDENT – D2

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 27 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 23 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 20 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald  – 16 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 14 percent

We can also call the vice presidential primary for Senator Alexandra West, her first win since her win in her home district of District 1. This brings the delegate count to Tarson 2,050, Madison 1,300, West 950.

91% in – West wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D2

Sen. Alexandra West – 41 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 36 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 24 percent

UPDATE 13: We now have final numbers from all districts.

100% in – Mellark wins – PRESIDENT – D2

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 27 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 23 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 20 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald  – 16 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 14 percent

100% in – West wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D2

Sen. Alexandra West – 41 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 36 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 24 percent

100% in – Wilson wins – PRESIDENT – D4

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson– 60 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark– 11 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 11 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 11 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 7 percent

100% in – Madison wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D4

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 74 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 14 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 12 percent

100% in – Wilson wins – PRESIDENT – D5

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson– 40 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 17 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 16 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald  – 14 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 13 percent

100% in – Tarson wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D5

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 46 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 31 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 23 percent

100% in – Oaksmith wins – PRESIDENT – D8

Gov. Amy Oaksmith– 42 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark– 20 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux– 15 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 13 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 9 percent

100% in – Tarson wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D8

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 43 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 31 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 26 percent

100% in – Mellark wins – PRESIDENT – D10

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 38 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith– 33 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 11 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 10 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 8 percent

100% in – Tarson wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D10

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 77 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 13 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 10 percent

100% in – Mellark wins – PRESIDENT – D11

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 43 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith– 19 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 16 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 12 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 10 percent

100% in – Tarson wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D11

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 76 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 13 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 8 percent

1% in – Mellark wins – PRESIDENT – D12

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 67 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux– 11 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 10 percent

Vice Pres. Dale Wilson – 7 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 5 percent

100% in – Tarson wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D12

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 97 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 2 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 1 percent

ANALYSIS: We now have two hung nominations. The frontrunners, in some sort of irony, are both District 12 officeholders who want to return to the ways of President Everdeen. However, they both must find ways to secure their nominations.

The final delegate counts before unbound delegates declare allegiances:

President: Mellark 1,550, Oaksmith 1,000, Wilson 950, Oswald 450, Descoteaux 350.

Vice President: Tarson 2,050, Madison 1,300, West 950.

UPDATE 13: All campaigns for president and vice president curiously declined to comment on the results of tonight’s primaries, but that didn’t stop sources leaking what’s going on during the radio silence.

Reportedly the Mellark campaign has been preparing for sometime for a contested convention or a nationwide runoff vote. Tonight, they are likely discussing the easiest way to avoid those two options.

The same goes for Governor Oaksmith’s campaign. Their goal is to make sure that this goes to a second ballot or a runoff where Oaksmith could have a larger chance.

The Vice President’s campaign is reportedly looking at how to seize a nomination previously out of reach through the same techniques as Governor Oaksmith.

The Descoteaux and Oswald campaigns are most likely assessing their options on withdrawing from the race and releasing their delegates. Their delegates are crucial to this nomination as they determine whether or not this election goes further.

On the VP side, all three campaigns are assessing their options.

For the Tarson campaign, all it takes to win is winning all of the unbound delegates plus the chairman’s vote to overcome Madison; alternatively she could receive all of Senator West’s delegates or part to push her over the edge to the nomination. She’s also reportedly assessing her runoff chances and convention chances.

For the Madison campaign, it is crucial that they receive all of West’s delegates. If West endorses Tarson or even releases a part of her delegates to Tarson, Madison loses the nomination.

For Senator West, she is likely enjoying the status of kingmaker. She fully controls whether this nomination fight continues or dies. If she drops out, she can either crown Tarson or Madison (with a fight) and ensure a prime cabinet spot. If not, she can attempt to contest the nomination further- though there are major indications that she wouldn’t be able to compete.

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