BREAKING: Gov. Tarson announces slew of new endorsements

BREAKING: At a rally today in District 2, Governor Rebecca Tarson surprised observers with a slew of new endorsements. 

Gov. Rebecca Tarson, a Liberty VP contender, announces the endorsements of multiple Liberty Party members following her win in District 13.

Gov. Rebecca Tarson, a Liberty VP contender, announces the endorsements of multiple Liberty Party members following her win in District 13.

The D12 governor’s scheduled rally in District 2 did not have extra speakers on the itinerary, indicating that this was meant to be a shock to political observers.

The following officials endorsed Tarson, all of which previously endorsed Governor Trenton Escavel:

  • Governor Amy Oaksmith, a current presidential contender
  • Former Governor Isabel Holland of District 8
  • Polly Hector, the former Secretary of Agriculture (D11)
  • Quake Jones, senator for District 11

The biggest endorsement, however, came from Governor Trenton Escavel himself. The District 9 governor, who dropped out of the vice presidential race only a week ago, had met with Governor Tarson and other contenders over the course of the past week in preparation of an endorsement and the release of his delegates.

“Governor Tarson is a fine upstanding woman who has diligently served the people of District 12. She’s got a record that is indisputable. We need a businesswoman who can govern to get this country back on track. It’s time to bring business savvy back to the Capitol, and that’s why I’m endorsing Rebecca Tarson for vice president!”

Governor Escavel fully released his delegates after endorsing Governor Tarson, ensuring that all 150 delegates are bound to her. This brings the delegate count to Tarson 950, Madison 800, West 500. 

These endorsements give Tarson a leg up in the final primary day which will be incredibly crucial. If Tarson manages to win Districts 8 and 11 along with Districts 10 and 12, that will net her 900 delegates for the night (assuming she does not win Districts 2 and 5, which she is competing heavily for). That would bring her total delegate count up to 1,850 delegates, only 400 short of the 2,250 needed for the nomination. This means that if Tarson doesn’t win either District 2 (which has 450 delegates, which would give her the nomination) or District 5 (which has 200 delegates and would require Tarson to secure all 200 unbound delegates to get the nomination), she cannot win the nomination on the first ballot.

Let’s examine the scenarios.

Scenario 1: Tarson wins Districts 8 (250 delegates), 10 (100 delegates), 11 (200 delegates), and 12 (350 delegates). Madison wins Districts 4 (500 delegates) and 5 (200 delegates). West wins District 2 (450 delegates). Delegate Count: Tarson 1,850; Madison 1,500; West 950. Goes to contested convention w/ second ballot (even with unbound delegates). Governor Tarson is likely nominated on second ballot.

Scenario 2: Tarson wins Districts 5 (200 delegates), 8 (250 delegates), 10 (100 delegates), 11 (200 delegates), and 12 (350 delegates). Madison wins District 4 (500 delegates). West wins District 2 (450 delegates).  Delegate Count: Tarson 2,050; Madison 1,300; West 950. Goes to contested convention w/ likely second ballot (though if Tarson secures all 200 unbound delegates, there would be no second ballot). Governor Tarson is likely nominated on second ballot.

Scenario 3: Tarson wins Districts 2 (450 delegates), 8 (250 delegates), 10 (100 delegates), 11 (200 delegates), and 12 (350 delegates). Madison wins Districts 4 (500 delegates) and 5 (200 delegates). West wins no districts. Delegate Count: Tarson 2,300; Madison 1,500; West 500. Governor Rebecca Tarson is nominated on the first ballot at the convention as the Liberty Party nominee for vice president of Panem.

Scenario 4: Tarson wins Districts 2 (450 delegates), 5 (200 delegates), 8 (250 delegates), 10 (100 delegates), 11 (200 delegates), and 12 (350 delegates). Madison wins District 4 (500 delegates). West wins no districts. Delegate Count: Tarson 2,500; Madison 1,500; West 500. Governor Rebecca Tarson is easily nominated on the first ballot at the convention as the Liberty Party nominee for vice president of Panem.

Scenario 5: Tarson wins Districts 10 (100 delegates), 11 (200 delegates), and 12 (350 delegates). Madison wins Districts 4 (500 delegates), 5 (200 delegates), and 8 (250 delegates). West wins District 2 (450 delegates). Delegate Count: Madison 1,750; Tarson 1,600; West 950. Goes to contested convention w/ second ballot. Tossup between Secretary Madison and Governor Tarson on second ballot and consecutive ballots, lean Madison for nomination.

Scenario 6: Tarson wins Districts 10 (100 delegates), 11 (200 delegates), and 12 (350 delegates). Madison wins Districts 4 (500 delegates) and 5 (200 delegates). West wins Districts 2 (450 delegates) and 8 (250 delegates) . Delegate Count: Tarson 1,600; Madison 1,500; West 1,100. Goes to contested convention w/ second ballot. Tossup between Secretary Madison and Governor Tarson on second ballot and consecutive ballot, lean Tarson for nomination. With this scenario, any of the three could be nominated plausibly.

As you can see, after this announcement, the nomination is likely Tarson’s for the taking. Out of six plausible scenarios, Tarson would likely win in four of them, with Madison winning in one and a free-for-all in the sixth scenario (and Tarson still has the upper hand in that one.)

 

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