PRIMARIES PART TWO: Conservatives head to primaries in D3, D6, D7, D12, and D14

The Canth/Canth vs. Maxwell/Germaine rivalry will be tested in real time for the first time tonight as Conservative primary battles are waged in Districts 3, 6, 7, 12, and 14. Let’s take a look at the delegate chart.

Conservative Delegate Chart

As shown above, the contests tonight will provide 1,150 delegates of the 4,500 delegates available. That’s 26% of the total delegates. Out of that 4,500, however, 400 delegates are unbound and are free to vote for whomever they wish on the first ballot. That will be incredibly lucrative to the candidates as the battle wages, particularly if it’s close in the delegate count.

Let’s take a look at our predictions.

District 3: For president, likely Maxwell. For VP,  lean Germaine. Polling supports our predictions, and it’s helped by a neighboring district bias.

District 6: For president, lean Maxwell. For VP, lean Germaine. Remember that these two, while legally separate campaigns, are basically running as a ticket together. In most places if one leads, so does the other.

District 7: Safe Canth for president and likely Canth for VP. Easy to see why.

District 12: Safe Maxwell for president. Even the D12 Conservatives have a affinity for former President Everdeen, and Canth’s comments were one step too far. For VP, likely Germaine due to coattails.

District 14: Likely Canth for president, and likely Canth for VP. The Canths are decently liked in D14, and that’s what will probably hold them over.

UPDATE: We now have polling numbers from District 3 for president and VP.

1% in – Maxwell leads – PRESIDENT

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 56 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 44 percent

2% in – Tossup – VICE PRESIDENT

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 51 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 49 percent

UPDATE 2: We now have further numbers from District 3. We can now call District 3’s presidential primary contest for Mr. Robert F. Maxwell. This puts President Canth’s primary challenger ahead of him in a crucial primary for renomination. The delegate race is now Maxwell 150, Canth 0, Unbound 400.

19% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 63 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 36 percent

15% in – Germaine leads – VICE PRESIDENT

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 55 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 45 percent

UPDATE 3: We now have further numbers from District 3 in the VP contest. We can now call District 3’s vice presidential primary contest for Sec. Lynn Germaine. The delegate race for the VP nomination is now Germaine 150, Canth 0, Unbound 400.

42% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 61 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 39 percent

UPDATE 4: We now have numbers from District 7. We can now call District 7’s presidential primary contest for President Rick Canth. This puts the president in the lead for the nomination. The delegate race is now Canth 250, Maxwell 150, Unbound 400.

1% in – Canth wins – PRESIDENT

Pres. Rick Canth – 71 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 29 percent

We can also call District 7’s vice presidential primary contest for Rep. Jackson Canth. This also puts Canth in the lead for his nomination. The delegate race for VP is now Canth 250, Germaine 150, Unbound 400.

1% in – Canth wins – VICE PRESIDENT

Rep. Jackson Canth – 64 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine –  36 percent

UPDATE 5: We now have numbers out of District 6. We can now call this presidential primary contest for Mr. Robert F. Maxwell. This brings the delegate race to Maxwell 450, Canth 250, Unbound 400.

1% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 78 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 22 percent

A simply massive rejection of the president here in District 6. Stunning for a primary that isn’t Maxwell’s home district or even one that is neighboring. We can also call the VP primary race for Sec. Lynn Germaine, her second win of the day. This brings that delegate race to Germaine 450, Canth 250, Unbound 400.

1% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 69 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 31 percent

Another significant percentage. The Canth name, at least here, appears to be toxic. If Canth actually gets the nomination, we could see a Conservative loss here despite this being Conservative breeding ground.

UPDATE 6: We now have numbers out of District 12. We can also call this race for Mr. Robert F. Maxwell. This brings this delegate race to Maxwell 700, Canth 150, Unbound 400.

1% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 67 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 33 percent

As expected, a wide margin for Mr. Maxwell after President Canth’s insult. We can also call the VP race for Sec. Lynn Germaine, her third win tonight. This brings the VP delegate race to Germaine 700, Canth 150, Unbound 400.

5% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 60 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 40 percent

UPDATE 7: Finally we have received numbers out of District 14. Strangely, this race is closer than expected on both sides.

1% in – Canth leads – PRESIDENT

Pres. Rick Canth – 53 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 47 percent

1% in – Tossup – VICE PRESIDENT

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 52 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 48 percent

UPDATE 8: We now have further numbers from District 14. Both races are still too close to call.

20% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 50 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 50 percent

18% in – Germaine leads – VICE PRESIDENT

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 53 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 47 percent

UPDATE 9: We have even further numbers from District 14. It is still too close to call.

35% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 51 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 49 percent

29% in – Germaine leads – VICE PRESIDENT

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 55 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 45 percent

UPDATE 10: New numbers in from D14, and it seems like this night continues to become longer and longer. Stay tuned.

50% in – Tossup – PRESIDENT

Pres. Rick Canth- 50 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 50 percent

51% in – Germaine leads – VICE PRESIDENT

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 53 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 47 percent

UPDATE 11: We can finally make a call on the vice presidential race. We project that Sec. Lynn Germaine will make a surprise win here in District 14, earning another 250 delegates for her nomination bid. The delegate race is now Germaine 950, Canth 150, Unbound 400.

78% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 54 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 46 percent

This win is huge for Germaine. She is now 800 delegates up from the man who was supposed to be a shoo-in for this nomination, and Canth will be hard-pressed to make up the difference- if that’s even possible.

UPDATE 12: After a long wait, we can now make a call on the presidential primary in District 14. We project that Mr. Robert F. Maxwell will win in District 14 today, further extending his lead. The delegate race is now Maxwell 950, Canth 150, Unbound 400.

99% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 52 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 48 percent

UPDATE 13: We now have final numbers out of all districts.

100% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT – D3

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 65 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 35 percent

100% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D3

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 57 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 43 percent

100% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT – D6

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 81 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 19 percent

100% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D6

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 73 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth –  27 percent

100% in – Canth wins – PRESIDENT – D7

Pres. Rick Canth – 68 percent

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 32 percent

100% in – Canth wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D7

Rep. Jackson Canth – 62 percent

Sec. Lynn Germaine –  38 percent

100% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT – D12

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 70 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 30 percent

100% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D12

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 59 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 41 percent

100% in – Maxwell wins – PRESIDENT – D14

Mr. Robert F. Maxwell – 52 percent

Pres. Rick Canth – 48 percent

100% in – Germaine wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D14

Sec. Lynn Germaine – 54 percent

Rep. Jackson Canth – 46 percent

ANALYSIS: This is a bad, bad, bad sign for the president. He started out being the presumptive nominee, and now he’s the underdog. Maxwell now holds 21 percent of the total delegates, 950 out of 4,500, to Canth’s 6 percent (or 250 out of 4,500).  This is after winning four of the sixteen total primaries. After tonight, there are only 2,950 delegates left (excluding those that are unbound) and Maxwell only needs 1,300 delegates (or 44 percent of what’s left). On Canth’s side, to get renominated, he needs 2,700 delegates (which amounts to 91% of the remaining delegates). Even if Canth received the votes of all 400 unbound delegates at the convention, he would need 2,300 delegates, or 77 percent of what’s left. It is almost impossible. The situation is the exact same way in the VP race.

UPDATE 14: Reports say that the campaign manager for President Canth’s reelection campaign was fired immediately after the President’s enormous loss in District 6, and several others were fired upon the news of his loss in District 14. The campaign could not be reached for comment.

UPDATE 15: President Canth gave the following remarks regarding the primaries today:

“Obviously it’s a disappointing outcome, but I refuse to become discouraged as a result. We will continue on to the convention. I have begun the reshuffling of my staff following my losses today and our new staff will ideally bring us to wins in the future days to come.”

UPDATE 16: Mr. Maxwell and Sec. Germaine issued a joint press release, stating the following:

“Our wins today in Districts 3, 6, 12, and 14 are proof that Panem is ready for transparency and truthfulness in their public officials. Since President Canth and Representative Canth are near mathematical elimination in terms of delegates, we call upon both of the Canths to exit gracefully now in order to consolidate the party and project unity for the general election.”

UPDATE 17: Representative Canth’s campaign also fired their key staff in response to today’s losses and issued the following statement:

“We have reshuffled our staff accordingly, and we will stay in until the convention. We absolutely will not withdraw, despite the ridiculous plea of the Maxwell/Germaine campaigns.”

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