PRIMARIES PART ONE: Liberty voters head to polls in D1, D9, D14, D15

Welcome to the first primary night of the election season! Voters will be going to the polls for primary elections in Districts 1, 9, 14, and 15 for the Liberty Party presidential and vice presidential nominations. Let’s look at a rundown of the delegate process this year.

Liberty Primary Delegate chart

Tonight’s contests will be worth a combined 950 delegates out of 4,500 total delegates. That’s approximately 22% of all the delegates that will be awarded this year. (200 delegates are unbound and will vote as they please at the convention.)

In the VP race, everyone is on the ballot, including Gov. Bella Taylor, who withdrew.

The following are our PFP predictions for this year’s primaries:

PRESIDENT:

District 1: Tossup, anyone’s game

District 9: Lean for Gov. Oaksmith, who has been narrowly leading here, though Gov. Descoteaux isn’t far behind

District 14: Safe for Gov. Descoteaux. If it’s even close, she’s gonna have a hard time convincing voters that she can win this.

District 15: Tossup. Remember that this is the old Capitol; she has many fans here. However, do consider that the old Capitol is an even bigger fan of the Everdeen/Mellark family. This could easily end up being a surprise win for Sen. Mellark. At the same time, Gov. Hawthorne is the governor here, but many here also think that he shouldn’t be running at all.

VICE PRESIDENT: 

District 1: Safe for Sen. West. Anyone who says otherwise is out of their mind.

District 9: Safe for Gov. Escavel. Once again, it’s all but assured.

District 14: Tossup, which is crazy for such a large delegate prize.

District 15: Safe for Sec. Madison. No shot for anyone else here, according to polls.

We will update you with results as they come in.

UPDATE: The first vice presidential results are in from District 1, which is typically quicker to report. We can now call this race for Senator Alexandra West. The delegate race now is West 300, Escavel 0, Madison 0, Tarson 0.

1% in – Senator West wins

✔  Sen. Alexandra West – 57 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 19 percent

Gov. Trenton Escavel – 10 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 10 percent

Gov. Bella Taylor – 4 percent

A stunning result for dropout Bella Taylor, who manages to capture a small percentage despite her withdrawal from the race.

UPDATE 2: The first presidential results are in from District 1.

1% in – Five-way tossup

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 20 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 20 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald- 19 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson- 19 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 18 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 4 percent

Well, we can say one thing with certainty: Gale Hawthorne will not emerge victorious here tonight.

UPDATE 3: We now have results coming in from District 9 for both races.

1% in – Oaksmith leads – PRESIDENT

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 31 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 28 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 19 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson- 11 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 7 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 4 percent

And in the VP race, we can call District 9 for Governor Trenton Escavel. The delegate race now is West 300, Escavel 150, Madison 0, Tarson 0.

1% in – Governor Escavel wins – VICE PRESIDENT

✔  Gov. Trenton Escavel – 68 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 19 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 7 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 5 percent

Gov. Bella Taylor – 1 percent

UPDATE 4: We now have further numbers from District 1.

29% in – Five-way tossup

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 21 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 20 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 20 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson- 19 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 18 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 2 percent

UPDATE 5: We now have further numbers from District 9. We can officially call this race for Gov. Amy Oaksmith. The delegate race is now Oaksmith 150, Descoteaux 0, Hawthorne 0, Mellark 0, Oswald 0, Wilson 0.

38% in – Oaksmith wins – PRESIDENT

✔  Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 36 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 27 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 23 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson- 7 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 6 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 1 percent

UPDATE 6: We have further numbers from District 1.

45% in – Mellark leads

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 24 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 20 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 20 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson- 17 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 16 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 2 percent

UPDATE 7: We have further numbers from District 1. We can officially call this race for Sen. Peeta Mellark. The delegate race is now Mellark 300, Oaksmith 150, Descoteaux 0, Hawthorne 0, Oswald 0, Wilson 0.

58% in – Mellark wins

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 26 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 21 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 18 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson- 17 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 16 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 1 percent

UPDATE 8: We now have results from District 15.

2% in – Mellark leads – PRESIDENT

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 25 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 21 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 21 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 14 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 10 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson – 9 percent

We can now call the VP election for Sec. Jonathan Madison as expected. The delegate race is now West 300, Escavel 150, Madison 150, Tarson 0.

1% in – Secretary Madison wins

✔  Sec. Jonathan Madison – 59 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 22 percent

Gov. Trenton Escavel – 10 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 8 percent

Gov. Bella Taylor – 1 percent

UPDATE 9: We now have further results from District 15 and new results from District 14.

We can now call the presidential primary for District 15 for Senator Peeta Mellark. The delegate race is now Mellark 450, Oaksmith 150, Descoteaux 0, Hawthorne 0, Oswald 0, Wilson 0.

28% in – Mellark wins – PRESIDENT – D15

✔  Sen. Peeta Mellark – 31 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 24 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 16 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 10 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 10 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson – 9 percent

This is huge. Mellark has become a surprising force, taking two of the four primaries today and 450 delegates with them. Not only that, but both Hawthorne and Oswald missed a key shot to get the delegates they will need.

4% in – Descoteaux wins – PRESIDENT – D14

✔  Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 53 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 21 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson – 10 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 6 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 6 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 5 percent

1% in – Tossup – D14

Sen. Alexandra West – 26 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 25 percent

Gov. Trenton Escavel – 25 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 24 percent

Gov. Bella Taylor – 0 percent

UPDATE 10: We now have final numbers from all contests, and a call for District 14’s VP election.

100% in – Senator Mellark wins – PRESIDENT – D1

✔  Sen. Peeta Mellark – 28 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 21 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 17 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson- 17 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 15 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 1 percent

100% in – Senator West wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D1

✔  Sen. Alexandra West – 54 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 19 percent

Gov. Trenton Escavel – 12 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 11 percent

Gov. Bella Taylor – 4 percent

100% in – Governor Oaksmith wins – PRESIDENT – D9

✔  Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 38 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 27 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 22 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson- 6 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 6 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 1 percent

1% in – Governor Escavel wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D9

✔  Gov. Trenton Escavel – 71 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 18 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 6 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 4 percent

Gov. Bella Taylor – 1 percent

100% in – Descoteaux wins – PRESIDENT – D14

✔  Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 65 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 14 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson – 7 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 5 percent

Sen. Peeta Mellark – 5 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 5 percent

Our final call of the night is for the vice presidential election in District 14. We project that Governor Rebecca Tarson will carry District 14. The delegate race is now Tarson 350, West 300, Escavel 150, Madison 150.

100% in – Governor Tarson wins – D14

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 25.45 percent

Gov. Trenton Escavel – 25.33 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 25.18 percent

Sec. Jonathan Madison – 24.04 percent

Gov. Bella Taylor – 0 percent

100% in – Senator Mellark wins – PRESIDENT – D15

✔  Sen. Peeta Mellark – 32 percent

Sec. Celine Oswald – 26 percent

Gov. Gale Hawthorne – 22 percent

Gov. Amy Oaksmith – 8 percent

Gov. Rosalie Descoteaux – 7 percent

Vice President Dale Wilson – 5 percent

100% in – Secretary Madison wins – VICE PRESIDENT – D15

✔  Sec. Jonathan Madison – 67 percent

Sen. Alexandra West – 18 percent

Gov. Trenton Escavel – 8 percent

Gov. Rebecca Tarson – 6 percent

Gov. Bella Taylor – 1 percent

ANALYSIS: In the presidential race, we officially have a delegate frontrunner. Senator Peeta Mellark (D12) officially has 450 delegates, 300 delegates more than his closest competitor, Governor Amy Oaksmith. The race may still be anyone’s to take, but Senator Mellark now has an unexpected upper hand.

In the vice presidential race, the race has split four ways. District 1 opted for their own senator; District 9 opted to choose their governor. District 14 decided to go with the straight-talking D12 governor, but only by a hair; and D15 had no issue with electing Secretary Madison as their choice for vice president by an overwhelming margin. It’s quite clear that this race could easily end up going to yet another national primary election like the presidential race last time.

UPDATE 11: Governor Gale Hawthorne announced his withdrawal from the presidential race in a public statement in District 15:

“Thank you for coming. I feel after tonight that our future here in Panem is on its way to being back to a bright one. This election is crucial, and the voters of Panem are going to bring the Liberty Party back to the Capitol to restore our dignity and prominence. However, the voters today overwhelmingly decided that I will not be the one to do that. As such, I am hereby announcing that I am withdrawing my bid for the Liberty Party nomination for president. However, just because my journey for the presidency is over doesn’t mean that all is lost. I also hereby endorse my good friend and patriot Senator Peeta Mellark in his run for the presidency.”

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