New Liberty presidential poll shows Oswald down, Descoteaux/Oaksmith/Mellark up

In the first poll performed following the first presidential debate for the Liberty Party nomination, it is clear that the debate had a lasting effect on voters.

Voters were polled on the following questions:

  • Out of the following candidates, who would you support for the Liberty Party presidential nomination: Rosalie Descoteaux, Gale Hawthorne, Peeta Mellark, Amy Oaksmith, Celine Oswald, or Dale Wilson?
  • Out of the following candidates, who would you support for the Liberty Party vice presidential nomination: Trenton Escavel, Jonathan Madison, Rebecca Tarson, Bella Taylor, or Alexandra West?

The results for the presidential poll are as follows:

Out of the following candidates, who would you support for the Liberty Party presidential nomination: Rosalie Descoteaux, Gale Hawthorne, Peeta Mellark, Amy Oaksmith, Celine Oswald, or Dale Wilson?

Dale Wilson – 21 percent

Amy Oaksmith – 20 percent

Peeta Mellark – 14 percent

Rosalie Descoteaux – 11 percent

Celine Oswald – 10 percent

Gale Hawthorne – 8 percent

Undecided – 16 percent

As shown above, the debate had some clear effects on the competition. Oswald dropped dramatically from her second place position to second-to-last. That’s around a ten point drop from before the debate. Those ten points were dispersed among three particular candidates: Peeta Mellark, Rosalie Descoteaux, and Amy Oaksmith. The one to gain the most was Senator Mellark with a net increase of four points, moving him from fifth place to third place. Governor Descoteaux also rose from last place to fourth with an increase of three points, another impressive move. Governor Oaksmith also benefited from the debate with an increase of three points. This is a daunting development for Oswald, who now faces an extreme underdog status as the voters of Panem are now on the verge of rejecting her candidacy.

In addition to the presidential poll, a VP primary poll was also conducted. Keep in mind that the first debate for the vice presidential candidates has not yet occurred.

Out of the following candidates, who would you support for the Liberty Party vice presidential nomination: Trenton Escavel, Jonathan Madison, Rebecca Tarson, Bella Taylor, or Alexandra West?

Jonathan Madison – 20 percent

Alexandra West – 20 percent

Bella Taylor – 12 percent

Trenton Escavel – 8 percent

Rebecca Tarson – 8 percent

Undecided – 32 percent

From viewing these polling results, we can find that before the upcoming debate there are two tiers of candidates: Tier 1, which is comprised of heavyweights Secretary of State Jonathan Madison and Senator Alexandra West, and Tier 2, comprised of Governors Bella Taylor (D2), Trenton Escavel (D9), and Rebecca Tarson (D12). It is a dead heat in Tier 1 with both candidates tied for the lead. In Tier 2, Governor Taylor places a distant third to the frontrunners while clearly leading Governors Escavel and Tarson, who are tied for fourth. Another thing to note about this race is the high number of undecided voters: thirty-two percent. This number will dwindle after the debates, most likely, but for now, this race is anyone’s guess.

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