First Conservative primary poll released

The first poll for the Conservative Party primary was released today. While other party primaries have been polled already this election cycle, the Conservative Party primary was not as it was not previously contested- that is, until CEO Robert F. Maxwell decided to challenge President Rick Canth for his party’s nomination.

The poll tested the following:

  • Approval ratings for the President and for Mr. Maxwell
  • District polling
  • Nationwide polling
  • General election scenarios

Only Conservative Party members or voters that were considering voting in the Conservative Party primary were included in this poll, excluding general election scenarios which polled the entire public.

“What is your opinion of President Rick Canth?”

Approve – 32 percent

Disapprove – 64 percent

Unsure – 4 percent

“What is your opinion of CEO Robert F. Maxwell?”

Approve – 41 percent

Disapprove – 9 percent

Unsure – 50 percent

From these findings, we can deduce that the President lacks any sort of popularity among his party members. That is not a good sign as he faces off against a primary challenger that already has a higher approval rating than him. However, Mr. Maxwell has only just begun his campaign and there is plenty of uncertainty around him as half of the Conservative electorate is still unsure of how they feel about him.

The following question was asked in the Capitol and all fifteen districts of Panem: “In your district’s primary for president of Panem, who would you vote for: Rick Canth or Robert F. Maxwell?”

The Capitol:

Rick Canth – 69 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 11 percent

Unsure – 20 percent

District 1:

Rick Canth – 53 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 23 percent

Unsure – 26 percent

District 2:

Rick Canth – 36 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 34 percent

Unsure – 30 percent

District 3:

Rick Canth – 38 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 51 percent

Unsure – 11 percent

District 4:

Rick Canth – 18 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 59 percent

Unsure – 33 percent

District 5:

Rick Canth – 39 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 33 percent

Unsure – 28 percent

District 6:

Rick Canth – 40 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 29 percent

Unsure – 31 percent

District 7:

Rick Canth – 61 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 17 percent

Unsure – 22 percent

District 8:

Rick Canth – 15 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 16 percent

Unsure – 69 percent

District 9:

Rick Canth – 46 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 39 percent

Unsure – 15 percent

District 10:

Rick Canth – 34 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 39 percent

Unsure – 27 percent

District 11:

Rick Canth – 29 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 38 percent

Unsure – 33 percent

District 12:

Rick Canth – 31 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 30 percent

Unsure – 39 percent

District 13:

Rick Canth – 56 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 23 percent

Unsure – 21 percent

District 14:

Rick Canth – 45 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 34 percent

Unsure – 21 percent

District 15:

Rick Canth – 32 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 37 percent

Unsure – 31 percent

From this analysis of district polling, we can tell that President Canth will have to fight for his nomination, which is obviously in contention from the start. While some districts are easily tossups right now (Districts 2, 5, 8, 10, and 12), some are clearly favoring the President (The Capitol and Districts 1, 6, 7, 9, 13 and 14) and some are clearly favoring Mr. Maxwell (Districts 3, 4, and 11). However, it should be noted that in all of these districts there is a high level of unsure answers that could swing either way.

The previous question was also used to construct a national poll.

Rick Canth – 39 percent

Robert F. Maxwell – 32 percent

Unsure – 29 percent

From this national poll, we can infer that President Canth’s situation is incredibly worse than the district polling indicates. If President Canth were forced into a national primary (akin to that of last election’s Liberty Party primary), President Canth would be in imminent danger of losing the nomination. Luckily Canth is leading in more districts than Maxwell is currently right now and the districts individually hold contests for their delegates rather than conglomerate their votes in a national primary. However, Canth should remain very wary of Robert F. Maxwell- he’s aiming to wipe Canth out, and he’s succeeding so far. Also to note is the decidedly large portion of unsure votes, which once again could swing in either candidate’s favor.

The following general election matchups were polled.

“In a general election scenario between Rick Canth (Cons.), Celine Oswald (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Rick Canth (Cons.) – 14 percent

Celine Oswald (Lib.) – 26 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 15 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 11 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 9 percent

Unsure – 25 percent

“In a general election scenario between Rick Canth (Cons.), Dale Wilson (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Rick Canth (Cons.) – 20 percent

Dale Wilson (Lib.) – 31 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 17 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 12 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 5 percent

Unsure – 15 percent

“In a general election scenario between Rick Canth (Cons.), Amy Oaksmith (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Rick Canth (Cons.) – 19 percent

Amy Oaksmith (Lib.) – 37 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 21 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 9 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 3 percent

Unsure –  11 percent

“In a general election scenario between Rick Canth (Cons.), Peeta Mellark (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Rick Canth (Cons.) – 11 percent

Peeta Mellark (Lib.) – 21 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 18 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 17 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 12 percent

Unsure – 21 percent

“In a general election scenario between Rick Canth (Cons.), Gale Hawthorne (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Rick Canth (Cons.) – 14 percent

Gale Hawthorne (Lib.) – 19 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 20 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 20 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 6 percent

Unsure – 21 percent

“In a general election scenario between Rick Canth (Cons.), Rosalie Descoteaux (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Rick Canth (Cons.) – 19 percent

Rosalie Descoteaux (Lib.) – 25 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 13 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 16 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 4 percent

Unsure – 23 percent

“In a general election scenario between Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.), Celine Oswald (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.) – 26 percent

Celine Oswald (Lib.) – 27 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 13 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 11 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 2 percent

Unsure – 21 percent

“In a general election scenario between Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.), Dale Wilson (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.) – 24 percent

Dale Wilson (Lib.) – 32 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 9 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 10 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 1 percent

Unsure – 24 percent

“In a general election scenario between Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.), Amy Oaksmith (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.) – 22 percent

Amy Oaksmith (Lib.) – 34 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 17 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 11 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 2 percent

Unsure – 14 percent

“In a general election scenario between Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.), Peeta Mellark (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.) – 28 percent

Peeta Mellark (Lib.) – 25 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 18 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 12 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 1 percent

Unsure – 16 percent

“In a general election scenario between Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.), Gale Hawthorne (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.) – 34 percent

Gale Hawthorne (Lib.) – 17 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 26 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 11 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 1 percent

Unsure – 11 percent

“In a general election scenario between Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.), Rosalie Descoteaux (Lib.), Felicia Ren (Lab.), Cecelia Paylor (Civic), and Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.), who would you vote for?” 

Robert F. Maxwell (Cons.) – 22 percent

Rosalie Descoteaux (Lib.) – 23 percent

Felicia Ren (Lab.) – 13 percent

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 9 percent

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Ind.) – 1 percent

Unsure – 32 percent

We polled every single possible scenario with every major contender, and we found the following to be true:

  • Maxwell clearly polls better than the President right now as he leads in at least two scenarios while the President leads in none.
  • Liberty is set to win in most scenarios as their candidates are poll very well. The only exception to this rule is Governor Gale Hawthorne, who is seen as too right-wing for the general electorate. It seems that Governor Amy Oaksmith from District 7 would be the strongest nominee against both Canth and Maxwell.
  • The Conservatives are not doing well, and it shows with both candidates.
  • Labor is polling very well in comparison to prior elections, taking second place in several scenarios and even leading in one particular scenario. Could the left wing of Panem politics be set for its largest showing since Rick Canth’s run as the Labor Party nominee? It seems possible, especially after Labor denied Liberty an outright majority in the midterm elections.
  • Civic also polled much better in several scenarios than expected. While no one is planning on Civic actually winning this election, Paylor could be serving as a spoiler in this election.
  • Steinbeck is back, and she’s doing even worse than before. She polls much higher in Canth scenarios than in Maxwell ones which isn’t surprising.
  • Once again there is a decent amount of unsure votes in all the scenarios. Something to look at in the future.
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s