ELECTION DAY: Panem to elect first new President since Everdeen

Tonight is the night we’ve all been waiting for here at PFP since we began covering this election cycle. Tonight, the third President of Panem will be elected, as will the fourth Vice President of Panem. In addition to that, all Senate seats are up for reelection (with eyes on First Gentleman Peeta Mellark as he pursues a Senate seat in District 12), all House seats are up for reelection, and gubernatorial elections are being held in Districts 1, 6, 7, 9, 10,  and 11.


Here’s an overview of the main events of this election cycle.

  • President Katniss Everdeen, who was widely popular and expected to run for a third term, decides to forgo reelection.
  • Vice President Celine Oswald wins the nomination in an unprecedented national Liberty primary over Secretary Tyler Thompson, Governor Amy Oaksmith, and Secretary Gale Hawthorne.
  • Governor Dale Wilson wins the VP nomination for Liberty against Secretary (and former acting President) Jonathan Madison, Governor (and former acting President) Rosalie Descoteaux, Secretary Beetee Latier, and Secretary Harold Cercisa.
  • A terrorist attack kills 30,000 people in District 4 as the Oceanian Alliance car bombed the headquarters of Hartt Industries.
  • The entirety of the presidential line of succession was knocked out during an earthquake in the Capitol. Governor Rosalie Descoteaux of District 14 acted as President until Secretary of State Jonathan Madison was able to serve as acting President. Ultimately, both the President and Vice President were found.
  • World War IV started with the aforementioned terrorist attack on the Hartt Corporation and ended with a thermonuclear attack by Panem on the Oceanian capital of Jakarta. District 4 is once again invaded and District 2 is airbombed.
  • Midterm elections gave sweeping gains to the Liberty Party and began the rise of the Conservative Party.
  • Assassination attempts on President Everdeen, Vice President Oswald, and Governors Wilson and Oaksmith fail.
  • Panem’s capital is relocated to newly designated land from District 7 after the Panem Capital Act was signed into law. The Capitol will receive three electoral votes.
  • District 15 is formed from the former Capitol after the passage and signing of the Panem District Act. The new district will receive ten electoral votes, two senators, and eight representatives.
  • President Everdeen is named Secretary-General of the Council of Nations and will be inaugurated after her term ends as President.
  • In the debates, Vice President Oswald and Secretary Canth refrained from excessive attacks on each other, instead focusing on Governor Steinbeck for her ambition and inexperience, former Governor Ren for her policies in District 8, and Secretary Paylor for her past campaigns and her political record. However, the Vice President did swipe at Canth by mentioning his party switch, saying it showed his “indecisiveness.” Canth responded by accusing the Vice President of “political attacks.”
  • In the vice presidential debate, Governor Wilson attacks Conservative nominee Kurtis Pierce, noting that he has an “astounding lack of political experience” and questioning if he is ready to assume the presidency at any moment. Pierce shoots back the same accusation about Wilson, saying “a governorship isn’t the presidency, Mr. Wilson. A governorship has needs and boundaries that the presidency does not.” Governor Delta, the Labor nominee, took on former Speaker Trenton, the Civic nominee, claiming that the speaker acted unethically during votes in the lower chamber of the Panem Congress. Trenton stated that there were no such violations of ethics and that “it is clear that Governor Delta has no knowledge of our congress.” Former Representative Dalton, running with Governor Steinbeck, attacked Delta for the comment as well, saying “I’ve never seen such political ineptitude from a state executive, especially one that previously served as a representative in the Panem House of Representatives.”

With the addition of a new district, the electoral counts are as follows:

Overall amount of electoral votes: 135 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 68 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes

District 2: 10 electoral votes

District 3: 8 electoral votes

District 4: 12 electoral votes

District 5: 3 electoral votes

District 6: 5 electoral votes

District 7: 7 electoral votes

District 8: 10 electoral votes

District 9: 3 electoral votes

District 10: 8 electoral votes

District 11: 8 electoral votes

District 12: 4 electoral votes

District 13: 13 electoral votes

District 14: 20 electoral votes

District 15: 10 electoral votes

Capitol: 3 electoral votes


Our final predictions are as follows:

Overall amount of electoral votes: 135 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 68 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Safe Canth – Safe Pierce

District 2: 10 electoral votes – Tossup (Conservatives/Liberty)

District 3: 8 electoral votes – Safe Paylor – Safe Trenton

District 4: 12 electoral votes – Leans Oswald – Safe Wilson

District 5: 3 electoral votes – Safe Canth – Safe Pierce

District 6: 5 electoral votes – Safe Canth – Safe Pierce

District 7: 7 electoral votes – Tossup (Conservatives/Liberty)

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Tossup (Steinbeck/Labor/Civic)

District 9: 3 electoral votes – Leans Canth – Tossup (Wilson/Curtis)

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Leans Canth – Leans Pierce

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Leans Ren – Leans Delta

District 12: 4 electoral votes – Likely Oswald – Leans Wilson

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Safe Oswald – Safe Wilson

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Safe Oswald – Safe Wilson

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Likely Oswald – Safe Wilson

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Likely Oswald – Safe Wilson

Overall Safe/Likely:

Oswald – 50, Wilson – 58 (Liberty)

Canth – 19, Curtis – 19 (Conservative)

Paylor – 8, Trenton – 8 (Civic)

Ren – 8, Delta – 8 (Labor)

Steinbeck – 0, Dalton – 0 (Independent)

TOSSUP (PRESIDENT) – 27

TOSSUP (VP) – 29

LEANS (PRESIDENT) – 30

LEANS (VP) – 20


UPDATE 1: We have our first results of the night.

In the gubernatorial elections, we can report the following:

  • In District 1, Governor Thomas Stemp and Lt. Governor Anika Pham, both Labor, will win reelection over Conservative and Liberty challengers.
  • In District 6, Governor Festus Ashland has been reelected. The Lt. Governor’s race is too close to call at this time, but it appears that Conservative nominee Belinda Copley is leading by a large margin at this point.
  • In District 7, Governor Amy Oaksmith has been reelected. It was questioned whether she qualified to run, but she was cleared to do so. Lt. Governor Mason Wallace has also been reelected.
  • In District 9,  Governor Trenton Escavel and Lt. Governor Max Welch have been reelected.
  • In District 10, Governor Walter Delta did not seek reelection. Lt. Governor Isaac Bass is the Labor nominee. This race is too close to call, with dual Conservative/Liberty nominee Xavier Hansen leading 56-40-4 right now. The Lt. Governor’s race has been called for Conservative/Liberty nominee Maci Erhlich.
  • In District 11, Governor Vance Fletcher faces a tough reelection against his Civic Lt. Governor, Tanner Qualiski. In the Lt. Governor race, Conservative nominee Carl Parsons wins easily.

In the Senate races, we can predict that the Senate composition will remain steady with no pickups or losses for any party. We can predict also that First Gentleman Peeta Mellark is now Senator-elect of District 12. In addition to this, the Conservative and Liberty Parties have announced that the Liberty Senators will also represent the Conservative Party for this Congress.

In the House, we can predict that the composition will be 101 Liberty-34 Conservative-18 Labor-4 Civic, granting the Liberty Party the supermajority once again. Notable in these elections is the election of Kurtis Pierce, the vice presidential candidate for the Conservative Party, to the House of Representatives in the 3rd District of District 2. Legally, this is allowed, but should he be elected Vice President, he would resign his seat and an appointment would be made by the governor.


UPDATE 2: We can now call more races.

  • In District 10, Conservative/Liberty nominee Xavier Hansen has been elected Governor over Labor nominee, Lt. Governor Isaac Bass, 57% Hansen-39% Bass-4% Other.
  • In District 6, Conservative nominee Belinda Copley has been elected Lt. Governor.
  • In District 11, Conservative nominee Kaitlyn Jones has been elected Governor in a surprise victory over incumbent Vance Fletcher (Liberty) and Civic challenger Tanner Qualiski. 36% Jones, 33% Fletcher, 30% Qualiski, 1% Other.

We can also begin coverage of the presidential and vice presidential races.


For president:

Overall amount of electoral votes: 135 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 68 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Canth carries with 56%.

District 2: 10 electoral votes – Too close to call. (51% Liberty- 48% Conservative)

District 3: 8 electoral votes – Paylor carries with 62%.

District 4: 12 electoral votes – Too close to call. (49% Liberty-43% Conservative)

District 5: 3 electoral votes – Canth carries with 58%.

District 6: 5 electoral votes – Canth carries with 54%.

District 7: 7 electoral votes – Too close to call. (Dead heat, Liberty/Conservative)

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Too close to call. (33% Labor, 33% Civic, 33% independent)

District 9: 3 electoral votes – Too close to call. (52% Conservative, 49% Liberty)

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Too close to call. (51% Conservative, 48% Liberty)

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Too close to call. (21% Labor, 20% independent, 20% Civic, 20% Conservative, 19% Liberty)

District 12: 4 electoral votes – Oswald carries with 64%.

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Oswald carries with 76%.

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Oswald carries with 63%

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Oswald carries with 53%.

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Oswald carries with 54%.

Current EV tallies (PRESIDENT):

Celine Oswald (Liberty) – 46 EVs

Richard “Rick” Canth (Conservative) – 19 EVs

Cecelia Paylor (Civic) – 8 EVs

Felicia Ren (Labor) – 0 EVs

Elizabeth Steinbeck (Independent) – 0 EVs


For Vice President:

Overall amount of electoral votes: 135 electoral votes

Amount needed to win the election (must have a majority): 68 electoral votes

District 1: 11 electoral votes – Pierce carries with 57%.

District 2: 10 electoral votes – Too close to call. (52% Liberty- 47% Conservative)

District 3: 8 electoral votes – Trenton carries with 60%.

District 4: 12 electoral votes – Wilson carries with 57%.

District 5: 3 electoral votes – Pierce carries with 54%.

District 6: 5 electoral votes – Pierce carries with 53%.

District 7: 7 electoral votes – Too close to call. (50% Liberty, 47% Conservative)

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Too close to call. (36% Labor, 33% Civic, 30% independent)

District 9: 3 electoral votes – Too close to call. (52% Conservative, 49% Liberty)

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Too close to call. (50% Conservative, 48% Liberty)

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Too close to call. (21% Civic, 20% independent, 20% Labor, 20% Liberty, 19% Conservative)

District 12: 4 electoral votes – Wilson carries with 53%.

District 13: 13 electoral votes – Wilson carries with 56%.

District 14: 20 electoral votes – Wilson carries with 59%

District 15: 10 electoral votes – Wilson carries with 60%.

Capitol: 3 electoral votes – Wilson carries with 55%.

Current EV tallies (VICE PRESIDENT):

Dale Wilson (Liberty) – 62 EVs

Kurtis Pierce (Conservative) – 19 EVs

Samuel Trenton (Civic) – 8 EVs

Walter Delta (Labor) – 0 EVs

Sextimus Dalton (Independent) – 0 EVs


UPDATE 3: We can now call more results in the presidential elections.


District 2: 10 electoral votes – Canth carries with 49%.

District 9: 3 electoral votes – Canth carries with 52%.

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Canth carries with 51%.


All other remaining races are still too close to call.


UPDATE 4: We can now call more districts for the presidential race.


District 8: 10 electoral votes – Ren carries with 34%.

District 4: 12 electoral votes – Oswald carries with 48%.

District 11: 8 electoral votes – Canth carries with 21%.


Only District 7 remains in this election. The race continues to be evenly split between Oswald and Canth, providing a divisive line on who will be elected tonight.


Electoral count:

Oswald – 62 EVs

Canth – 48 EVs

Ren – 10 EVs

Paylor – 8 EVs

Steinbeck – 0 EVs


UPDATE 5: We can now call more districts in the vice presidential election.


District 2: 10 electoral votes – Pierce carries with 50%.

District 8: 10 electoral votes – Delta carries with 33%.

District 9: 2 electoral votes – Pierce carries with 51%.

District 10: 8 electoral votes – Pierce carries with 51%.


UPDATE 6: Governor Dale Wilson (Liberty-District 4) has been elected Vice President of the Republic of Panem. The Vice President-elect carried District 11 and its 8 electoral votes, surpassing the goal of 67 electoral votes. Vice President-elect Wilson now has 70 electoral votes, with District 7 outstanding.


District 11: 8 electoral votes – Wilson carries with 22%.


UPDATE 7: We can now call District 7 in the vice presidential election.


District 7: 7 electoral votes – Wilson carries with 52%.


This brings the Vice President-elect’s electoral count to 77 electoral votes. Pierce garnered 39 EVs, Trenton received 8 EVs, Delta received 10 EVs, and Dalton received none.


UPDATE 8: We can now call District 7, and therefore, the presidential election. 


District 7: 7 electoral votes – Canth carries with 50.32%.


The Canth campaign, along with the Paylor, Steinbeck, and Ren campaigns, must be cheering right now. This presidential election will go to the House of Representatives, where the other four candidates at least have a shot of winning. However, it appears that there are two options at this point: a President Oswald or a President Canth. Oswald currently leads in EV counts with 62 EVs, followed by Canth with 55 EVs. Ren received 10 EVs, Paylor received 8 EVs, and Steinbeck has none.


UPDATE 9: Vice President Oswald is addressing the press:

“Thank you for coming out tonight. As you can understand, the results we have seen out of District 7 are quite alarming. As such, there will be an automatic recount under District 7 law, and if this does not suffice, my campaign will push for a manual recount. If we do not come out on top in either of these, we will take this election to the House and aim to win in order to ensure the best for our country. By no means is this election over, and by no means will I concede now. Onwards to victory!”

Secretary Canth addressed his supporters:

“We’ve done a great thing today. My friends, we have successfully taken the nation of Panem out of the control of one singular party. While the Everdeen administration has done well, we can certainly do better with a Canth administration. We will survive these recounts, then we will win in the House.”

Secretary Paylor addressed her supporters, essentially conceding:

“Well, I’ve got to say that this campaign has been hard-fought and well-won. By no means has Panem lost. This election has proved that there are many leaders in Panem, and while separated by opinion, they all have the country’s best interests at heart. We must never forget that, and even if victory is near zero for me in the House, we must understand that Panem itself has won. We have achieved full democracy after nearly one hundred years of dictatorship…no my friends, we have not lost. We have won. I wish the best to the Vice President and Secretary Canth in the House.”

Governor Ren addressed her supporters:

“I congratulate the Vice President, Secretaries Canth and Paylor, and reluctantly Governor Steinbeck on their performances throughout the campaign, and I thank and congratulate you, the people of Panem. Today we yet again proved that Panem is powerful and that Panem is democratic. By no means will we return to the days of Snow. I understand that I have all but lost, and that there may be a chance for me in these House elections. I have no plans to contest this election in the House, and should I choose to support either Secretary Canth or Vice President Oswald, I will declare later.”

Governor Steinbeck addressed her supporters:

“By no means is this election over. There’s still a high probability that this election will be thrown to the House of Representatives, and if it is thrown, I will do everything in my power to win. If not, I will make sure that Panem is ensured the right choice in a president. Understand that this isn’t over yet!”

 

 

 

 

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